708
FNUS72 KMLB 160807
FWSMLB
SPOT FORECAST FOR 1515 RX...SJRWMD
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
407 AM EDT THU APR 16 2026
FORECAST IS BASED ON IGNITION TIME OF 0800 EDT ON APRIL 16.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE, CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.
DISCUSSION
DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT NEAR THE BURN SITE DUE TO
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW
40S THIS AFTERNOON AND NEAR CRITICAL RH THRESHOLDS ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EACH MORNING WILL PICK UP OUT
OF THE EAST AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE
AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AFTERNOON SMOKE DISPERSION
VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY GOOD NEAR THE BURN SITE BOTH TODAY AND ON
FRIDAY. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT NEAR THE
BURN SITE EACH MORNING, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS REMAINS VERY LOW.
IF ANY FOG DOES DEVELOP, IT WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNRISE.
REST OF TODAY
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY (25-35 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY
IN THE MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 85.
MIN HUMIDITY........43 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 10 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1200 FT AGL INCREASING TO 5000 FT AGL IN THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 5 TO 10 MPH.
DISPERSION INDEX....2 INCREASING TO 52.
LVORI...............8 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........26 21 25 29 30 32 42 40 35 34
WEATHER COV.....PTY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............61 67 74 78 81 83 83 85 83 83
RH..............97 78 64 56 51 46 46 43 46 48
20 FT WIND DIR..N SE SE SE E E E E E E
20 FT WIND SPD..1 1 2 3 5 6 6 7 9 10
20 FT WIND GUST.2 3 5 6 8 9 9 10 12 13
MIX HGT (KFT)...0.4 1.2 3.5 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.6
TRANSP WIND DIR.SE SE SE SE E E E E E E
TRANSP WIND SPD.5 5 7 6 5 6 7 7 8 10
DISPERSION IDX..2 8 32 31 26 34 40 40 48 52
LVORI...........8 4 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1
TONIGHT
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLEAR (15-25 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG AFTER
3 AM.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 60.
MAX HUMIDITY........100 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT BECOMING LIGHT.
MIXING HEIGHT.......2400 FT AGL DECREASING TO 400 FT AGL EARLY IN
THE EVENING.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....SOUTHEAST 7 TO 12 MPH SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH 5
TO 8 MPH OVERNIGHT.
DISPERSION INDEX....40 DECREASING TO 2.
LVORI...............1 INCREASING TO 6.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
SKY (%).........30 30 19 16 5 7
WEATHER COV..... PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE FOG
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............82 74 70 67 65 62
RH..............49 64 73 81 87 93
20 FT WIND......E 9 E 9 SE 7 SE 6 S 3 S 2
20 FT WIND GUST.12 12 10 8 6 3
MIX HGT (FT)....3600 700 500 400 400 400
TRANSPORT WIND..E 9 E 10 E 10 SE 7 S 7 S 5
DISPERSION IDX..40 8 5 3 3 2
LVORI...........1 3 3 5 5 6
FRIDAY
SKY/WEATHER.........SUNNY (5-15 PERCENT). PATCHY FOG EARLY IN THE
MORNING.
CHANCE OF PCPN......0 PERCENT.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 89.
MIN HUMIDITY........37 PERCENT.
WIND (20 FT)........LIGHT WINDS BECOMING EAST 5 TO 8 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON.
MIXING HEIGHT.......1400 FT AGL INCREASING TO 6400 FT AGL.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST AROUND 3 MPH SHIFTING TO THE NORTH AROUND
5 MPH LATE IN THE MORNING, THEN SHIFTING TO THE
EAST 5 TO 9 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
DISPERSION INDEX....1 INCREASING TO 52.
LVORI...............10 DECREASING TO 1.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
SKY (%).........10 18 6 3 4 4
WEATHER COV.....PATCHY PATCHY
WEATHER TYPE....FOG FOG NONE NONE NONE NONE
TSTM COV........
CHC OF PCPN (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
TEMP............60 62 75 85 88 88
RH..............100 97 64 46 39 38
20 FT WIND......W 2 NW 2 W 1 N 3 E 6 E 7
20 FT WIND GUST.3 3 5 8 9
MIX HGT (FT)....400 400 2600 4600 5600 6400
TRANSPORT WIND..W 3 W 3 NW 3 N 5 E 5 E 8
DISPERSION IDX..2 1 13 28 35 52
LVORI...........10 7 2 2 1 1
FORECASTER...TOLLEFSEN
REQUESTED BY...COLIN RIDER
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2610443.0/MLB
.DELDT 04/16/26
.FORMATTERVERSION 2.0.0
.EMAIL CJRIDER@SJRWMD.COM
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