392
FXUS62 KMLB 202311
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
711 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
- FREQUENTLY GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AND DRIER AIR INTO TUESDAY WILL
LEAD TO VERY SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS GENERALLY SOUTH OF BREVARD THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH INTO THE EVENING.
- BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
REST OF TODAY-TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A STORM
OR TWO ONGOING GENERALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH INTO THIS EVENING, AS DRIER AIR FILTER INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. REGARDLESS, LIMITED INSTABILITY HAS SO FAR
MODERATED VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, POPS REMAIN BELOW 15%.
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE
SOUTHEAST US AND THE FRONT HAVE PRODUCED BREEZY TO WINDY
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS TODAY. SUSTAINED WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH GUSTS 25-
30 MPH ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE AREA. ALONG THE COAST, GUSTS TO NEAR
35 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WHILE WINDS WILL SLACKEN SLIGHTLY AFTER
SUNSET, THEY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, PARTICULARLY ALONG THE COAST. BREEZY EASTERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 MPH AGAIN. ONSHORE FLOW WILL
HELP TO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S
TO LOWER 80S. BREEZY CONDITIONS AND DRY AIR WILL LEAD TO VERY
SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TUESDAY. A RED FLAG
WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR INTERIOR LOCATIONS.
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...SURFACE RIDGING DEVELOPS OVER AND OFFSHORE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST US MID TO LATE WEEK. A STABLE MARITIME AIRMASS
PREVAILS, WITH ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. A
SLACKENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PUT AN END TO PARTICULARLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AROUND
10-15 MPH. MOSTLY DRY, THOUGH WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR A FEW LOW
TOPPED SHOWERS EMBEDDED WITHIN POCKETS OF MOISTURE (PWATS NEAR
1-1.1") WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE, CHANCES REMAIN LOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH JUST 20% POPS THIS WEEKEND FOR SEA BREEZE
COLLISION-DRIVEN CONVECTION. WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW WILL LEAD TO A
RISE IN TEMPERATURES BY A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY. NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
IN THE LOWER TO MID-80S WEDNESDAY REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN BY THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH 20-25 KT
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT. POOR TO HAZARDOUS
CONDITIONS LINGER INTO TUESDAY, AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
TIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. ONSHORE WINDS
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER
THE AREA. SEAS 7-10 FT THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT WILL SLOWLY
SUBSIDE, RETURNING TO 2-4 FT BY THURSDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THIS AFTERNOON ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
INTO THIS EVENING. DRIER CONDITIONS THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK, BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A FEW ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 711 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
DRIER AIR SETTLES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, LESSENING CLOUD COVER AND
EVENTUALLY ENDING ANY LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE TREASURE COAST. VFR
CONDS EXPECTED INTO TUESDAY AT ALL TERMINALS, INCLUDING MCO. NE
WINDS PERSIST, WITH 15-25 KT GUSTS CONTINUING AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY, NE SUSTAINED 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS
22-28 KT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 248 PM EDT MON APR 20 2026
VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO WINDY NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH WIND GUSTS 25-30 MPH AND UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE
COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A STORM OR TWO SOUTH OF
MELBOURNE WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. MIN RH REMAINS ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS TODAY, BUT AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF I-4 ARE FORECAST
TO DIP TO NEAR 40-45%.
WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY
TUESDAY AS THEY VEER EASTERLY. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR INTERIOR COUNTIES LATE TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE
TO WIND SPEEDS 15-20 MPH AND CRITICAL TO NEAR CRITICAL RH. WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE COAST, AS CONDITIONS REMAIN VERY SENSITIVE THERE AND
WINDS WILL BE HIGHEST. BUT, ONSHORE FLOW IS FORECAST TO KEEP MIN RH
ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 MPH WEDNESDAY,
WHILE RH RECOVERS TO 40-50%. REGARDLESS OF RED FLAG OR NEAR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS, VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION MAY LEAD TO CONTROL
ISSUES INTO MID-WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 78 60 78 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 62 81 60 80 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 67 78 65 78 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 65 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 10
LEE 57 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 59 81 58 81 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 62 81 60 81 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 65 78 63 78 / 10 0 0 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR FLZ041-
044>046-053-058-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...LEAHY
AVIATION...HEIL
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