595
FXUS62 KMLB 211755
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
155 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- FREQUENTLY GUSTY ENE/E WINDS AND DRIER TODAY WILL LEAD TO VERY
SENSITIVE TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
- BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN POOR TO HAZARDOUS THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS AS DRIER AND COOLER AIR
FILTER DOWN THE PENINSULA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS RATHER
TIGHT INTO TODAY. CURRENT NE WINDS FALL TO AROUND 5 MPH ACROSS THE
INTERIOR AND VOLUSIA COAST EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH WINDS REMAINING
ELEVATED 12-16 MPH ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS AND HIGHER
GUSTS. DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS, VEERING ENE/E WINDS WILL RAMP
BACK UP TO 15-20 MPH WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS. OVER MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR WIND GUSTS WILL APPROACH 25 MPH AT TIMES AND UP TO 30 MPH
(POSSIBLY 35 MPH) ALONG THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS. WINDS DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH
MSUNNY SKIES, THOUGH MAY SEE SOME STRATOCU PUSHING ONTO THE SPACE
& TREASURE COASTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. HIGHS WILL REACH THE U70S
ALONG THE COAST AND 80F TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW, OVERNIGHT MINS WILL KEEP IN THE 60S ALONG THE COAST
WITH U50S (FEW M50S) ACROSS THE INTERIOR. MAY HAVE TO MONITOR FOR
TONIGHT IN THE EVENT A SMALL POP IS NECESSARY OVER THE LOCAL
COASTAL WATERS OR ALONG THE COAST FOR LIGHT, ONSHORE-MOVING,
PRECIP.
EXPECT POOR TO HAZARDOUS BEACH AND BOATING CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TODAY. AT THE BEACHES, MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
ROUGH SURF ONGOING. A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS, STRONG, LIFE-
THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL ALSO BE PRESENT AT ALL CENTRAL FL ATLC
BEACHES. ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF REMAINS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
WED-MON...ALOFT, WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD OVER THE FL PENINSULA INTO EARLY WED. A WEAK
"TROUGHY" PATTERN IN THE MID-LEVELS TAKES UP RESIDENCY OVER THE
REGION LATER WED INTO LATE WORK-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHEAST U.S. INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS
WILL KEEP ANY FRONTAL PASSAGES AT BAY UNTIL AT LEAST SUN NIGHT INTO
EARLY MON. A WEAKENING ONSHORE FLOW PATTERN EXISTS FROM MID TO LATE
WORK-WEEK. WE MAY STILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR SOME "LOW-TOPPED"
COASTAL SHOWERS EARLY WED INTO THU, THOUGH CHANCES (IF INTRODUCED)
SHOULD REMAIN 20PCT OR LESS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS WEAK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND ON MON AND EXPECT "DAILY" LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT
(20-30PCT) CONVECTION MAY IGNITE FROM THESE COLLISIONS WITH MODEST
MOISTURE PRESENT.
MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS CONTINUE POTENTIAL WED/THU, WITH THE
ONSHORE FLOW - U70S COAST AND L80S INTERIOR, THEN A WARMING TREND
ENSUES FRI-MON WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING M-U80S AND POTENTIAL
90F OVER THE INTERIOR (SUN-MON).
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS IN THE 60S FOR
MINS, AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW INTERIOR LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE M-
U50S THRU FRI MORNING, WITH 60S RETURNING ALMOST AREAWIDE SAT-TUE
MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AND WE WILL SLOWLY
TRIM BACK THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (NORTH TO SOUTH) DURING THE DAY
AND TONIGHT AS WINDS/SEAS GRADUALLY DIMINISH/SUBSIDE. ONSHORE WINDS
CONTINUE TO SLACKEN MID-WEEK INTO LATE WORK-WEEK. AS THIS HAPPENS,
WE MAY SEE AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT DEVELOP AT NIGHT FRI OVERNIGHT INTO
THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS, AGAIN, TRANSITIONING TO ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3-5 FT AREAWIDE BY EARLY WED, CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE
TO AOB 3 FT AREAWIDE BY EARLY FRI. WE'LL SEE IF ANY LIGHT PRECIP
(20PCT OR LESS) CAN DEVELOP ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATER TONIGHT
THRU THU.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL ECFL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS HAVE BECOME MORE ENE THIS AFTERNOON,
SUSTAINED 13-18 KTS AND GUSTING 20-25 KTS, OCCASIONALLY UP TO 30
KTS, WHICH THEN DIMINISH LATE IN THE EVENING BUT REMAINING GUSTY
KVRB-KSUA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS VEER ESE WEDNESDAY,
INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS INLAND/KDAB-KTIX, AND 15-20 KTS KMLB-
KSUA WITH HIGHER GUSTS AFTER 14Z. DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT,
THEN VERY LOW (10-20%) CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS RETURNS
WEDNESDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 216 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
VERY SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST TODAY. BREEZY TO
WINDY ENE/E WINDS 15-20 MPH, WITH WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND UP TO 30 TO 35 MPH ALONG THE COAST. MIN RH VALUES
WILL FALL TO 28-35% ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE RED FLAG WARNING, AND GENERALLY 40-50% ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS. CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST WILL ALSO REMAIN VERY SENSITIVE AS
WINDS ARE HIGHEST HERE.
EASTERLY WINDS DIMINISH TO 10-15 MPH WEDNESDAY, WHILE RH RECOVERS TO
40-50% ACROSS THE INTERIOR. VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT DISPERSION MAY
LEAD TO CONTROL ISSUES INTO MID-WEEK. ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLACKEN THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH A SLIGHT RH RECOVERY -
THOUGH LOWEST RHS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL STILL REALIZE 35-45%.
POTENTIAL SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS DAILY BEGINNING THURSDAY ACROSS THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND. WILL MONITOR FOR ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM
THREAT AS ANY CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD INITIATE NEW
FIRE STARTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 60 79 61 80 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 60 79 62 81 / 0 10 0 20
MLB 65 78 65 79 / 0 0 0 10
VRB 63 78 64 79 / 0 0 10 10
LEE 58 82 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
SFB 58 81 61 83 / 0 0 0 10
ORL 60 81 62 83 / 0 10 0 20
FPR 63 78 62 79 / 0 0 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR FLZ041-044>046-
053-058-144.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ555-575.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...HALEY
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