945
FXUS62 KMLB 220520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
- WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES CLOSER TO CENTRAL FL.
- BOATING CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
FAVORABLE BOATING THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
GUSTY EAST WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW DEWPOINTS/RH IS PRODUCING A
FIRE SENSITIVE AFTERNOON. EVEN WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RH VALUES
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE CONTROL
PROBLEMS FOR ANY NEW OR EXISTING FIRES. THE WINDS, ESPECIALLY THE
GUSTS, WILL DECREASE WITH SUNSET. WILL SEE ANOTHER SHARP GRADIENT
WITH LOW TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 50S OVER THE FAR INTERIOR TO
THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 ALONG THE COAST DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
ONSHORE FLOW.
WED-TUE...IN THE LOW LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL PUSH SOUTH
OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WED AND THU WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL. THIS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WHICH WILL DECREASE OUR WINDS. STILL GUSTY ON WED (20-25
MPH) BUT NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY WITH NOTABLY LESS WIND THU AND
ESPECIALLY FRI. ALOFT, A "BAGGY" TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA
BY THU AND SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SO SOME GRADUAL
MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE IN THE MID LEVELS. ENOUGH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SHOULD RETURN WED FOR ISOLATED ATLC SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
AND PUSH ONSHORE PORTIONS OF THE COAST DURING THE DAY. NO FRONTS
ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE AREA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE SO A
WARMING TREND IS IN THE FORECAST. DAILY AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL
KEEP COASTAL COMMUNITIES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BUT INTERIOR
SECTIONS WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S NEAR 90 THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE SHOULD SPARK ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND ASSOCD WITH SEA BREEZE
COLLISIONS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHERE RAIN CHANCES (25-35%) ARE
HIGHEST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPIRE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE REPLACED WITH CAUTION HEADLINES FOR A
TIME. OVERALL, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THURSDAY
AS PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LOOSEN AS LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES CLOSER TO CENTRAL FL. A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP FRI-SAT AS RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD, THEN SOUTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY. E TO SE SEA BREEZE 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. SEAS SUBSIDING BELOW 7 FT TONIGHT
IN THE GULF STREAM AND BELOW 6 FT ON WED MORNING. SEAS 3-4 FT THU
AREAWIDE, 2-3 FT FRI AND 2 FT SAT-SUN. ISOLD SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP
WED THEN PROSPECT FOR ISOLATED AFTN/EVE STORMS WILL RETURN
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST AT ALL LOCAL TERMINALS. ENE WINDS PERSIST,
GENERALLY SUSTAINED BETWEEN 5 TO 10 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY MORNING.
CONDITIONS BECOME MORE GUSTY ALONG THE COAST AFTER 14Z AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, REACHING THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AROUND
19Z. GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT TIMES. WINDS DIMINISH
LATE THIS EVENING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS. MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT TUE APR 21 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND REACH CENTRAL FL
LATE THIS WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW THE ONSHORE FLOW TO GRADUALLY
DECREASE WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. EAST WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG WEDNESDAY BUT STILL GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST; THEN GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY. ISOLATED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST WEDNESDAY. MIN RH
VALUES OF 35-40% ARE FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR SO RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT FORECAST THOUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE A FIRE
SENSITIVE DAY AS DISPERSION VALUES WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT.
DISPERSIONS FALL SLIGHTLY THURSDAY AS SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS
DECREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 60 80 61 / 10 0 10 0
MCO 80 61 83 62 / 0 0 20 0
MLB 78 65 79 64 / 10 0 10 10
VRB 78 63 79 63 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 81 60 84 62 / 10 0 10 0
SFB 81 60 83 61 / 10 0 20 0
ORL 80 62 83 62 / 0 0 20 0
FPR 78 62 79 62 / 0 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ555-575.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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