965
FXUS62 KMLB 221053
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
653 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
- WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE SETTLES CLOSER TO CENTRAL FL.
- BOATING CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
FAVORABLE BOATING THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...FAIRLY SHARP TEMP GRADIENT EARLY IN THE PERIOD
WITH M-U50S OVER THE FAR INTERIOR AND U60S TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE
COAST. ONSHORE WINDS NEAR 10-15 MPH FOR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
MAINLY 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE, SAVE FOR ISOLD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES ACROSS
THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS AND MAYBE A 10% CHANCE ALONG THE COAST,
HIGHEST CHANCES "MIGHT" BE COASTAL VOLUSIA AND COASTAL BREVARD.
AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING SETTLES NEAR NORTH-CENTRAL FL, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SLOWLY BEGIN TO RELAX. WE STILL MAINTAIN
10-15 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AROUND 15 MPH OR A
LITTLE HIGHER AT THE COAST, WITH STRONGER AFTERNOON GUSTS LIKELY.
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH A FEW MORE CLOUDS ALONG THE COAST DUE TO
THE LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S ALONG THE COAST
AND NEAR 80F TO L80S INTO THE INTERIOR. SIMILAR OVERNIGHT MINS
UPCOMING WITH M-U50S TO NEAR 60F OVER THE INTERIOR AND 60S TO
NEAR 70F, AGAIN, ALONG THE COAST.
THU-TUE...FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES W/NW THRU THE PERIOD WITH PERIODIC
WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE FL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE,
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA
EVENTUALLY GETS NUDGED SEAWARD AND SOUTHWARD LATER IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RATHER
WEAK THRU MUCH OF THIS PERIOD. WILL SEE SOME MODEST INCREASES IN
MOISTURE THU INTO THE WEEKEND AS WELL AS DAILY SEA BREEZES WITH A
COLLISION ACROSS THE WESTERN PENINSULA THU EVENING, GRADUALLY MOVING
CLOSER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA THRU THIS WEEKEND. WE MAY
SEE SOME ISOLD SHOWERS DEVELOP INTO THE INTERIOR THU AFTERNOON, WITH
ISOLD (20%) LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES FRI-SAT, THEN MAYBE LOW-END SCT
(30%) THREAT ON SUN, BEFORE RETURNING TO ISOLD AGAIN FOR MON. ANY
POTENTIAL FRONTAL PASSAGES STAY MAINLY NORTHWARD.
NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS THU, THEN A WARMING TREND ENSUES FRI-TUE
WITH MAX VALUES APPROACHING M-U80S AND POTENTIAL 90F OVER THE
INTERIOR (SUN-TUE). ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP COASTAL AREAS
IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70F FOR MINS, AND DRIER AIR WILL ALLOW INTERIOR
LOCATIONS TO DIP INTO THE M-U50S ONE LAST MORNING FRI, WITH 60S
RETURNING ALMOST AREAWIDE SAT-WED MORNINGS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WILL ALLOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO EXPIRE, THOUGH CAUTIONARY
STATEMENTS WILL GREET THE NEW DAY ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS
FOR THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH THU AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
SETTLES CLOSER TO CENTRAL FL. A MORE S/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRI-SAT
AS THE RIDGE AXIS PASSES OVERHEAD, THEN SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
ON SUN. AN E/SE SEA BREEZE 10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON
NEAR THE COAST. SEAS RETURNING TO 3-5 FT AREAWIDE LATER THIS
MORNING, THEN 3-4 FT INTO THU, 2-3 FT FRI, AND 2 FT SAT-SUN.
ISOLD LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH
ISOLD-WDLY SCT AFTN/EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS RETURNING SUN/SUN
NIGHT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
LIGHT EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP ALONG THE COAST AT
14Z AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR AFTER 19Z, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 10
TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. WINDS THEN DIMINISH
BEYOND 00Z AT ALL TERMINALS. DRY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH
NO VIS OR CIG CONCERNS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT WED APR 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND REACH CENTRAL FL
LATER THIS WEEK, ALLOWING ONSHORE FLOW TO GRADUALLY DECREASE TODAY
AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY/FRIDAY. EAST WINDS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS
STRONG TODAY BUT STILL GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST; THEN GUSTING 15 TO 20 MPH THURSDAY. ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
MAY CROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST TODAY. MIN RH VALUES OF 35-40% ARE
FORECAST OVER THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON SO RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE
NOT FORECAST, THOUGH IT WILL BE A FIRE SENSITIVE DAY AS DISPERSION
VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT. DISPERSIONS FALL
SLIGHTLY THURSDAY/FRIDAY AS SURFACE AND TRANSPORT WINDS DECREASE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 60 80 61 / 10 0 10 0
MCO 80 61 83 62 / 0 0 20 0
MLB 78 65 79 64 / 10 0 10 10
VRB 78 63 79 63 / 0 10 10 10
LEE 81 60 84 62 / 10 0 10 0
SFB 81 60 83 61 / 10 0 20 0
ORL 80 62 83 62 / 0 0 20 0
FPR 78 62 79 62 / 0 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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