342
FXUS62 KMLB 222321
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
721 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
- WINDS GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL FL.
- BOATING CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH
FAVORABLE BOATING THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
STORMS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
THRU TONIGHT...WHILE MID LEVELS REMAIN VERY DRY, THERE HAS BEEN AN
UPTICK IN MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL AS THE UPPER LEVELS.
SO A LITTLE MORE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN IN THE FORM OF MARINE
STRATOCU PANCAKING BENEATH A PERSISTENT INVERSION NEAR 850 MB AS
WELL AS SOME ALTOCU/CIRROCU. ISOLATED SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL PUSH
ONSHORE THE BREVARD/INDIAN RIVER COASTS INTO EARLY EVE.
THU-WED...IN THE LOW LEVELS, HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH SOUTH AND EAST WELL OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA COAST WED AND THU
WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING WESTWARD ACROSS NORTH FL. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL DECREASE OUR
WINDS WITH NOTICEABLY LESS GUSTINESS THU AND FRI. ALOFT, A "BAGGY"
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA BY THU AND SHIFT EAST OF THE
AREA THIS WEEKEND. SO SOME GRADUAL MOISTENING WILL TAKE PLACE IN
THE MID LEVELS AND WEAKEN THE PERSISTENT INVERSION. SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE ATLC DURING
THE OVERNIGHT/MORNING THEN TRANSITIONING TO LAND AREAS DURING THE
DAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL BE
MAINLY ASSOCD WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WHEN
RAIN CHANCES (25-35%) ARE HIGHEST. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT
OCCUR WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SPARK BRUSH FIRES GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE OUT OVER THE SW ATLC WITH A
TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING DOWN THE FL PENINSULA MID WEEK.
LIMITED RAIN CHANCES WILL CONTINUE.
NEAR SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS THU, THEN A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND
WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S INTERIOR AND LOW TO MID 80S COAST.
MAX TEMPS MON HOLD STEADY THEN ADDITIONAL WARMING FOLLOWS WITH
LOWER 90S TUE AND LOW TO MID 90S WED OVER THE INTERIOR. DAILY SEA
BREEZES WILL KEEP THE COAST A LITTLE COOLER, BUT INCREASINGLY
DELAYED SEA BREEZES WILL ALLOW THE COAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER
80S BY WED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
WILL ALLOW THE CAUTION HEADLINE TO FINALLY LAPSE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AS WINDS CONTINUE A SLOW DECLINE. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES
TO RELAX AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL
FL. A MORE OFFSHORE W/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUN AS THE RIDGE
AXIS PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. AN E/SE SEA BREEZE 10-15
KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. SEAS 3-4 FT
INTO THU SUBSIDE 2-3 FT FRI, 2 FT SAT AND 1-2 FT SUN. ISOLATED
LIGHT SHOWERS INTO THIS EVENING WILL PUSH ONSHORE SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. THEN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS POSSIBLE THU BUT REMAINING ISOLATED.
ISOLD-SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING LIGHTNING STORMS OVER LAND THIS
WEEKEND MAY AFFECT SOME INLAND LAKES AS WELL AS PUSH OFFSHORE
ONTO THE ATLC, ESP SUNDAY AFTN/EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 713 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL ECFL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONSHORE MOVING -SHRA CONTINUE INVOF KMLB- KFPR ON A
CONVERGENCE LINE THIS EVENING, BUT PRODUCING LITTLE IF NO
IMPACTS. CAMS STILL INDICATING LOW CHANCES (LESS THAN 20%) FOR
ONSHORE MOVING -SHRA TO EXPAND TO KTIX-KSUA TONIGHT, BUT STILL
NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR VCSH MENTION. IF THIS ACTIVITY DOES DEVELOP IT
COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. ESE WINDS BECOME LIGHT
OVERNIGHT, THEN PICK BACK UP TO 8-13 KTS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO
20 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 345 PM EDT WED APR 22 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND REACH CENTRAL FL
FRIDAY THEN SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. ONSHORE (E/SE) FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH LESS
GUSTINESS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW EACH
AFTERNOON, AROUND 15 MPH THURSDAY AND 10-15 MPH FRIDAY. ISOLATED
ATLANTIC SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST INTO
THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY BUT
MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN RH VALUES OF 35-40% ARE FORECAST
OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS WITH RH
VALUES HOLDING AROUND 50 PERCENT NEAR THE COAST. DISPERSIONS WILL
BE VERY GOOD THURSDAY AND GENERALLY GOOD FRIDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 60 80 61 83 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 61 82 63 85 / 0 10 0 20
MLB 66 79 65 81 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 63 79 63 82 / 10 10 10 20
LEE 60 84 63 86 / 0 10 0 10
SFB 60 83 61 86 / 0 10 0 10
ORL 62 82 63 86 / 0 10 0 20
FPR 63 79 62 82 / 10 10 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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