517
FXUS62 KMLB 230617
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
217 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
- WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH LATE WEEK AS A HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE SETTLES OVER CENTRAL FL. ISOLATED SPRINKLE/SHOWER THREAT
CONTINUES ALONG THE COAST TODAY.
- "HIGH" RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES.
BOATING CONDITIONS IMPROVE THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH FAVORABLE
BOATING THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH SEA BREEZE
INTERACTIONS. MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, HOWEVER.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...CONTINUED DRY AND COOLER OVER THE INTERIOR EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH MINS EXPECTED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE M-U50S WELL
INLAND AND 60S TO NEAR 70F ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. LIGHT ERLY
WINDS AROUND 5 MPH OR LESS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND UP TO 10 MPH
ALONG THE SPACE AND TREASURE COASTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO RELAX AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CONTINUES TO SETTLE IN ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL. E/ESE WINDS WILL
STILL APPROACH 10-15 MPH OVER THE INTERIOR AND AROUND 15 MPH ALONG
THE COAST WITH SOME HIGHER AFTERNOON GUSTS. GENERALLY PSUNNY
SKIES WITH THE CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW. MODEST MOISTURE
WILL PROMOTE A 10-20PCT SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS ECFL TODAY. WILL SEE
A FEW ONSHORE-MOVING SPRINKLES/SHOWERS, THEN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON
PRECIP CHANCES INTO THE INTERIOR. HOWEVER, MOST WILL REMAIN DRY.
THERE WILL BE A LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION FAVORING THE
WESTERN PENINSULA. ALOFT, WEAK SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL TRAVERSE
THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
MAX TEMPS IN THE U70S TO AROUND 80F ALONG THE COAST AND L80S INTO
THE INTERIOR. FOR MINS, U50S TO L60S OVER THE INTERIOR/VOLUSIA
COAST, AND L-M60S ALONG THE COAST.
FRI-WED...WEAK TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WILL SLIDE EASTWARD INTO FRI NIGHT, THOUGH WE WILL RETAIN
NWRLY FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES PASSING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY
BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF AND TRIES TO EXPAND NORTH/EAST. MODEST
MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THRU EARLY SAT, THEN AN INCREASE
IN PWATS FROM LATE SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK. WITH WEAK SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INFLUENCE ACROSS/NEAR CENTRAL FL FOR MUCH OF THIS EXTENDED
PERIOD, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS LIGHT WITH DAILY SEA BREEZE
FORMATION AND MARCH INLAND. LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR FURTHER EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA EACH
DAY. WE CONTINUE TO SEE ISOLD-SCT LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES FRI THRU
MON, PERHAPS GREATEST THREAT ON SUN. WITH THE INCREASING DRY
CONDITIONS WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY NEW FIRE STARTS FROM
CLOUD-TO- GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES.
A WARMING TREND ENSUES FRI INTO THE EXTENDED WITH MAX VALUES
APPROACHING L-M80S FRI, THEN M-U80S SAT-MON, WITH U80S ARRIVING AT
COASTAL LOCATIONS TUE/WED AS DAILY SEA BREEZE BECOME MORE DELAYED.
POTENTIAL 90F OVER THE INTERIOR SUN, WITH L90S WITHIN REACH OVER THE
INTERIOR MON-WED. FOR MINS, GENERALLY 60S, ALMOST AREAWIDE, WITH 70F
WITHIN REACH AT THE COAST AND PERHAPS ORLANDO METRO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. A LIGHT OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT DEVELOPS EACH
NIGHT/EARLY MORNING INTO THE EXTENDED, WITH DAILY SEA BREEZES
"BACKING" WINDS ESE/SE 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS NEAR THE COAST.
SEAS 3-4 FT TODAY, BECOMING 2-3 FT FRI-EARLY SAT, THEN 2 FT SAT AFTN-
SUN NIGHT, RETURNING TO 2-3 FT MON. ISOLD LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS,
AGAIN TODAY/TONIGHT, WITH ISOLD-WDLY SCT AFTN/EVENING LIGHTNING
STORMS RETURNING SAT NIGHT-SUN NIGHT.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES 10-13 KTS
LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON, AND LOCALLY HIGHER
GUSTS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. LIGHT ONSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN VICINITY OF VRB/FPR EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH MORE BROAD COVERAGE EXPANDING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
BREVARD AND TREASURE COAST AFTER SUNRISE. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE
MAY SUGGEST A LOW CHANCE (20%) FOR SHOWERS IN VICINITY OF INTERIOR
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN
THE CURRENT TAF.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 217 AM EDT THU APR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD AND REACH CENTRAL FL
FRIDAY THEN SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. ONSHORE (E/SE) FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH FRIDAY WITH FEWER STRONG WIND
GUSTS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ENHANCE THE ONSHORE FLOW EACH AFTERNOON,
AROUND 15 MPH TODAY AND 10-15 MPH FRIDAY. ISOLATED ATLANTIC SHOWERS
AND SPRINKLES WILL CROSS PORTIONS OF THE COAST AGAIN THIS MORNING.
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST INTO THE INTERIOR LATER
TODAY BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY. MIN RH VALUES OF 35-40% ARE
FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH FRIDAY WITH RH VALUES
HOLDING AROUND 50% NEAR THE COAST. DISPERSIONS WILL BE GENERALLY
GOOD TO VERY GOOD TODAY AND FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, HIGHEST VALUES INLAND FROM THE COAST AND GREATEST OVERALL
CHANCE ON SUNDAY, SURROUNDING LATE DAY/EVENING BOUNDARY COLLISIONS.
WITH THE INCREASING DRY CONDITIONS, NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE A
CONCERN FROM POTENTIAL LIGHTNING STRIKES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 61 83 63 / 10 0 10 0
MCO 81 61 86 65 / 20 0 20 0
MLB 79 64 81 66 / 20 0 10 0
VRB 79 62 82 64 / 20 10 10 10
LEE 84 61 86 64 / 20 0 20 0
SFB 82 61 86 64 / 20 0 20 0
ORL 82 63 86 65 / 20 0 20 0
FPR 79 61 82 63 / 20 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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