411
FXUS62 KMLB 232350
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
750 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THIS EVENING; ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEA BREEZE STORMS THIS WEEKEND.
- FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING HOT NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
THRU TONIGHT...THE PERSISTENT MID LEVEL RIDGING IS BREAKING DOWN
AS MOISTURE GRADUALLY INCREASES IN THE LOW LEVELS AND UPPER
LEVELS, ERODING THE MID LEVEL DRY AIR. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL
BUBBLE UP OVER THE INTERIOR INTO EARLY EVENING AS WELL AS PUSHING
ONSHORE PORTIONS OF THE COAST. THEN MOSTLY DRY OVERNIGHT WITH
WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK
INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
FRI-THU...WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FL PENINSULA FRI WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT. NW FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS TROUGH WILL ALLOW EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEN MID LEVEL RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER THE SW GULF AND TRIES TO EXPAND
NORTH/EAST. MODEST MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION THRU EARLY
SAT, THEN AN INCREASE IN PWATS FROM LATE SAT INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
IN THE LOW LEVELS, PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN WEAK IN VICINITY
OF THE ATLC RIDGE AXIS ALLOWING THE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS THIS WEEKEND WILL
BE MAINLY ASSOCD WITH SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS, ESPECIALLY SUNDAY
WHEN RAIN CHANCES (25-35%) ARE HIGHEST. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES THAT
OCCUR WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO SPARK BRUSH FIRES GIVEN THE DRY
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
BUILD OVER THE AREA MONDAY THEN MOVE OUT OVER THE SW ATLC WITH A
TRAILING RIDGE AXIS SLIPPING DOWN THE FL PENINSULA MID WEEK.
A WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S
INTERIOR AND MID 80S COAST. MAX TEMPS MON HOLD STEADY THEN
ADDITIONAL WARMING FOLLOWS WITH LOWER 90S TUE AND LOW TO MID 90S
WED/THU OVER THE INTERIOR. DAILY SEA BREEZES WILL KEEP THE COAST A
LITTLE COOLER, BUT INCREASINGLY DELAYED SEA BREEZES WILL ALLOW
THE COAST TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S BY WED/THU.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
CONDITIONS GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH FRI AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
CONTINUES TO RELAX AS A WEAK LOW-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SETTLES ACROSS
CENTRAL FL. A MORE OFFSHORE W/SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SUN AS THE
RIDGE AXIS PUSHES SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. AN E/SE SEA BREEZE
10-15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON NEAR THE COAST. SEAS
SUBSIDE 2-3 FT FRI, 2 FT SAT AND 1-2 FT SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THIS EVENING NEAR THE COAST. ISOLD-SCATTERED AFTN/EVENING
LIGHTNING STORMS OVER LAND THIS WEEKEND MAY AFFECT SOME INLAND
LAKES AS WELL AS PUSH OFFSHORE ONTO THE ATLC, ESP SUNDAY
AFTN/EVENING.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 738 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ECFL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
STILL A FEW -SHRA FROM KMLB-KTIX TO KMCO/KISM, BUT FINALLY ON A
DOWNWARD TREND. SOUTHERN TERMINALS COULD HAVE DEBRIS -SHRA
BLOWBACK FROM THE SWFL SEA BREEZE COLLISION THROUGH THE NIGHT,
BUT CHANCES TOO LOW FOR VCSH MENTION. SHRA CHANCES INCREASE ALONG
THE TREASURE COAST AFTER 12Z, AND GRADUALLY EXPAND NORTH TOWARDS
KMLB THROUGH THE MORNING. ISO SHRA AND POSSIBLY TSRA FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ON THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE JUST WEST OF THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AROUND 19Z, THEN MOVE INLAND WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION
NEAR KMCO/KISM/KLEE AFTER 22Z. LIGHT SSE-SE WINDS TONIGHT PICK
BACK UP TO 5-10 KTS AFTER 15Z FRIDAY, PEAKING 8-13 KTS AT MOST
TERMINALS AFTER 19Z.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 310 PM EDT THU APR 23 2026
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL SETTLE SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL FL
FRIDAY THEN REACH SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNDAY. LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
WIND WILL TURN ONSHORE (E/SE) BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON
WITH SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH. MIN RH VALUES OF 35-40% ARE FORECAST OVER
PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, RISING TO 40-45%
SUNDAY WHILE RH VALUES HOLD AROUND 50% NEAR THE COAST. DISPERSIONS
WILL BE FAIR TO GENERALLY GOOD FRIDAY AND GOOD TO VERY GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, HIGHEST VALUES INLAND FROM THE COAST AND GREATEST OVERALL
CHANCE ON SUNDAY, ASSOCIATED WITH LATE DAY/EVENING BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. NEW FIRE STARTS WILL BE A CONCERN FROM ANY LIGHTNING
STRIKES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 61 82 63 85 / 10 20 20 20
MCO 62 85 64 88 / 20 20 20 30
MLB 65 81 66 84 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 64 81 65 84 / 20 20 10 20
LEE 62 86 63 88 / 10 20 20 20
SFB 61 86 63 89 / 20 20 20 20
ORL 63 86 65 88 / 20 20 20 30
FPR 63 81 63 84 / 20 20 10 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...KELLY
AVIATION...HALEY
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