960
FXUS62 KMLB 241710
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
110 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
- ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE TODAY,
BECOMING MORE SCATTERED THIS WEEKEND.
- FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND.
- WARMING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND, THEN TURNING HOT NEXT WEEK
ESPECIALLY OVER THE INTERIOR.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY... BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING GRADUALLY SHIFTS OVER
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY, AND
PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL CONTINUE TO PASS OVERHEAD THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
GRADUALLY BROADENS AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WEAKENS AND RETREATS
EASTWARD. A LOOSE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT A DAILY SEA BREEZE
PATTERN. SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SURFACE FLOW TODAY GRADUALLY VEERS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SATURDAY AND
SOUTHWEST TO WEST ON SUNDAY. A SEA BREEZE COLLISION FAVORED DOWN
THE SPINE OF THE PENINSULA TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. SLOWER
DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE AND A SLOWER PROGRESSION
INLAND EACH DAY WILL AID A WARMING TREND. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S TODAY WARM ABOVE SEASONAL VALUES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, REACHING
THE MID TO UPPER 80S. MODEST MOISTURE REMAINS SHALLOW TODAY,
CAPPED AROUND 700MB, BUT THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED (20%)
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STRIKES. AT THIS TIME, GLOBAL ENSEMBLES ARE
SHOWING SLIGHT DISAGREEMENTS IN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND. NBM POPS
CURRENTLY LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE MOIST SOLUTION FAVORING
SCATTERED COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY (20-30%) AND
SUNDAY (30-40%) AFTERNOON. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DRY AIR
ALOFT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF STRONGER STORM CAPABLE OF FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES AND GUSTY WINDS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... A 500MB SHORTWAVE MOVES OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MONDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC, PULLING A "BACK-DOOR" COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE IN
PRECISE TIMING. MOST GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS POINT TOWARDS LIMITED
QPF ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT, AND THERE IS ONLY A MENTION OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN THE EXTENDED FORECAST. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
FURTHER DECREASES MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WITH SOME HINTS OF
ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY OR BEYOND.
MOSTLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD OUTSIDE OF THE ISOLATED
SHOWERS MENTIONED ON MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL,
MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY, REACHING THE LOW
90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OVER THE
LOCAL WATERS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS
GRADUALLY VEER INTO THE WEEKEND, BECOMING OFFSHORE BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, A DAILY SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL SHIFT LOCAL WINDS EAST-
SOUTHEAST EACH AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-3 FT TODAY ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WIDELY 2 FT THIS WEEKEND. SEAS BUILD 4-6 FT LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSES THE LOCAL WATERS. ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TODAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE
CAPE. MOSTLY DRY OVER THE WATERS ON SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVITY NEAR THE COAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS THEN SPREAD OVER THE WATERS SUNDAY BEFORE A
DRYING PATTERN BUILDS MONDAY INTO MID NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 110 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
VFR SHOULD DOMINATE THIS TAF PERIOD. RIDGE AXIS CLOSE BY WILL
ALLOW SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO BE THE DECIDING FACTOR FOR WINDS,
BCMG E/ESE 5-12 KT IN THE AFTERNOON, MOST NOTICEABLY AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS. LOW CHANCE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AROUND THE ORLANDO
AREA TERMINALS THIS EVENING (<30%), WITH EVEN LOWER CHANCES FOR
LIGHTNING ACTIVITY TODAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2026
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED AS A WARMING TREND CONTINUES
INTO THE WEEKEND. MINRH VALUES REMAIN SENSITIVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE INTERIOR TODAY AND SATURDAY WITH MOISTURE FORECAST TO MODESTLY
RECOVER SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT PREVAILING FLOW WILL SHIFT EAST-
SOUTHEAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON. THIS DAILY SEA
BREEZE PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR ISOLATED (20%) SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE (20-40%) THIS WEEKEND. NEW
FIRE STARTS WILL BE A CONCERN FROM ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 62 85 64 86 / 10 10 20 30
MCO 64 88 66 88 / 20 30 20 40
MLB 66 84 67 86 / 10 20 30 30
VRB 64 84 66 87 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 64 88 65 88 / 20 20 10 30
SFB 63 89 66 89 / 20 30 20 40
ORL 65 89 67 88 / 20 30 20 40
FPR 63 84 65 87 / 10 20 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...HEIL
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