771
FXUS62 KMLB 251757
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
157 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SLIGHTLY GREATER COVERAGE FORECAST
ON SUNDAY. GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND SOME SMALL HAIL
ARE POSSIBLE.
- FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND, BECOMING POOR
OVER THE GULF STREAM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT.
- WARMING UP THIS WEEKEND, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THEN HOTTER MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY... A MID-LEVEL TROUGHY PATTERN CONTINUES WITH PULSES OF
SHORTWAVE ENERGY PASSING WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS LOOSELY HOLDS INFLUENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS.
MOISTURE PROFILES START DRY TODAY WITH PWATS MODELED AROUND 1.1".
MOISTURE RECOVERS (1.4-1.5") INTO THE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF THE
NEXT PASSING SHORTWAVE. BEST SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-30%)
SHOULD INCREASE AS A SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURS NEAR THE ORLANDO
METRO LATE IN THE DAY. ANY ACTIVITY WHICH BECOMES AIDED BY THE
PASSING ENERGY ALOFT WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
GUSTY WINDS, AND EVEN SMALL HAIL. A DAILY SEA BREEZE PATTERN
CONTINUES SUNDAY. HOWEVER, OFFSHORE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR A WEST COAST
SEA BREEZE REGIME, KEEPING THE EAST COAST BREEZE CLOSER TO THE I-95
CORRIDOR. COVERAGE SLIGHTLY INCREASES SUNDAY, BECOMING MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED (30-50%). RAP ANALYSIS MAY SUGGEST YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
PASSING ALOFT SUNDAY WHICH COULD AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, AND SMALL HAIL.
NEW FIRE STARTS ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY. STEERING FLOW
MAY GUIDE CONVECTION OR LINGERING RAINFALL BACK TOWARD THE COAST
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH SOME COASTAL ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
LINGER A FEW HOURS BEYOND SUNSET.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TODAY WILL SLIGHTLY WARM ALONG THE
COAST SUNDAY AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS SLOWER TO DEVELOP. A
MINOR HEATRISK WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA TODAY,
EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA SUNDAY. PROPER
HYDRATION WILL BE ESSENTIAL IF PARTICIPATING IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
THIS WEEKEND.
MONDAY-FRIDAY... A WEAK 500MB TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE CAROLINA AND
MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY MONDAY, FOLLOWED QUICKLY BY A SECOND TROUGH
MOVING OFFSHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST. DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL GUIDE A "BACK-DOOR" COLD FRONT ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY. MONDAY'S POPS (20-30%) HAVE SHOWN ONLY
A SLIGHT INCREASE ALONG THE FRONT BEFORE DRIER AIR SPREADS ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE BECOMING IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING THE AREA INTO THURSDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN
HOW CLEANLY THE FRONT MAY PASS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE COAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY REACHING ABOVE NORMAL VALUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR (MID/UPPER
80S). A CONTINUED HOTTER TREND BUILDS FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD WITH
HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE 90S ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT
WINDS SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS EACH
AFTERNOON, AND SEAS HOLD 2-3 FT. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
TODAY OUTSIDE A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT MAY PUSH OFFSHORE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING, PRIMARILY OVER
THE OFFSHORE WATERS. COVERAGE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (20-40%) IS FORECAST TO MORE BROADLY SPREAD THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS SHIFT NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
PUSHES ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS BRIEFLY BUILD 4-6 FT MONDAY NIGHT,
SUBSIDING 3-4 FT BY LATE WEDNESDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN FROM
TUESDAY ONWARD AS HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
VFR AT THE SITES FOR NOW, THOUGH ISO/SCT SHRA AND TSRA ARE
FORECAST AFTER 19Z-20Z ALONG AND WEST OF THE ECSB. SATELLITE SHOWS
AGITATED CU FROM DAB TO TIX, AND MODELS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO, SO ADDED VCTS THERE THIS AFTERNOON. TSRA TEMPOS
REMAIN BUT WERE ADJUSTED AN HOUR SOONER FOR SFB/MCO/ISM. BRIEF
CIG/VIS REDUCTIONS ARE POSSIBLE INVOF HEAVIER SHRA/TSRA. WESTERLY
FLOW PUSHES REMAINING ACTIVITY TOWARD THE COAST AFTER 22-23Z, AND
ADDITIONAL TEMPOS MAY BE NEEDED TIX/MLB.
AS SHRA/TSRA WANE OR MOVE OFFSHORE AFTER 03Z, WINDS DECREASE.
THERE IS A 20-30% CHANCE FOR LOWER VIS 07-12Z SUN., BUT OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT THIS TIME. SW WINDS
INCREASE TO 8-12 KT AFTER 16Z SUN. WITH ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA
CHANCES AT OR BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2026
SENSITIVE MINRH VALUES CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY BEFORE MOISTURE GRADUALLY RECOVERS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. LIGHT
WINDS SHIFT EAST-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
BECOMES FAVORED SUNDAY, AND WEST WINDS INCREASE 10-15 MPH ACROSS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, A WEAKER, SLOWER
EAST COAST BREEZE WILL STILL MANAGE TO SHIFT WIND EAST-SOUTHEAST IN
VICINITY OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR SUNDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. INCREASING COVERAGE OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS FORECAST SUNDAY, AND NEW FIRE STARTS
ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHTNING ACTIVITY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 64 87 66 82 / 10 40 20 20
MCO 66 88 68 86 / 20 50 10 30
MLB 67 86 68 83 / 30 40 20 20
VRB 66 87 66 84 / 20 30 20 20
LEE 65 87 67 87 / 10 30 10 20
SFB 65 89 67 85 / 20 50 10 20
ORL 67 89 68 87 / 20 50 10 30
FPR 65 87 66 84 / 20 30 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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