006
FXUS62 KMLB 260701
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STRONG STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS 45-55 MPH,
AND SMALL HAIL.
- FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY, BECOMING POOR OVER THE GULF
STREAM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT.
- WARMER TODAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, THEN
HOTTER MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
TODAY-MONDAY... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA AND MID
ATLANTIC COAST SLOWLY PULLS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
TODAY BEFORE SINKING INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA ON MONDAY. A LOOSE
PRESSURE GRADIENT IS MAINTAINED TODAY WITH LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWEST
SURFACE FLOW IN PLACE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. A DIFFUSE WEST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PROPAGATE INLAND LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON, EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH A PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY. INITIATION OF WIDELY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG EACH RESPECTIVE
BOUNDARY WITH MOST LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.
MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE DEVELOPS ALONG THE BOUNDARY COLLISION WITH
PERHAPS THE MOST FAVORABLE MOISTURE (PWAT 1.5-1.6") ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST COUNTIES AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE, AND THE
BEST COVERAGE LOOKS TO RESIDE OVER THESE AREAS (~50%). A STRONG
STORM ENVIRONMENT WILL EXIST IN VICINITY OF AND JUST WEST OF THE I-
95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY SUPPORTED BY SURFACE INSTABILITY
EXCEEDING 2,000+ J/KG AND DRY AIR ALOFT (DCAPE~ 900-1,000 J/KG).
STRONGER STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND WIND GUSTS OF 45-55 MPH. LOWER CONFIDENCE
EXISTS IN SMALL HAIL SHOULD UPDRAFTS BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE LAYER
OF DRY AIR ALOFT. STEERING FLOW SHOULD GUIDE ANY CONVECTION AND
LINGERING RAINFALL TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS THEN BUILDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
LIMITED INLAND PROPAGATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES WARM, REACHING THE UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY.
LIGHT WESTERLY SURFACE WINDS SHIFT NORTHWEST TONIGHT, FURTHER
VEERING NORTHEAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES
CENTRAL FLORIDA. SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
FRONT REMAIN LOW (20-30%) BEFORE DRY AIR BUILDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.
NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD SLIGHTLY NUDGE TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES
BRINGING VALUES CLOSER TO NORMAL ALONG THE COAST (L/M80S) AND
THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO (M80S). HOWEVER, ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS LOOK
TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR (U80S) INCLUDING PORTIONS OF
WESTERN LAKE, WESTERN OSCEOLA, AND OKEECHOBEE.
TUESDAY-SATURDAY... HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD
INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE QUICKLY BECOMING DISPLACED AS THE NEXT COLD
FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THE FRONT SLOWLY SAGS TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA
THURSDAY BECOMING BRIEFLY STATIONARY AND LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD INTO
SATURDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE
NEXT RAIN CHANCES CREEP INTO THE FORECAST AGAIN ON THURSDAY. THE
RAIN FORECAST FROM THURSDAY INTO LATE WEEK COULD SEE SOME
VARIABILITY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES AS MODELS TRY TO
RESOLVE A MORE PRECISE LOCATION OF WHERE THE FRONT MAY END UP. THAT
BEING SAID, THE CURRENT BLEND OF MODELS INTRODUCES ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF ORLANDO THURSDAY.
ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S ALONG THE COAST TUESDAY,
WARMING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WEST OF I-95. A CONTINUED HOT
TREND BUILDS INTO MID WEEK WITH MODERATE TO HIGH PROBABILITIES OF
INTERIOR LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S WEDNESDAY, CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHIFT SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS MOSTLY
2FT.
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS BUILD IN THE GULF STREAM LATE
MONDAY BEHIND THE NEXT COLD FRONT. WINDS VEER TONIGHT BECOMING
NORTHEAST 10-15 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT MONDAY. SEAS BUILD 4-5 FT
NEARSHORE AND 5-7 FT IN THE GULF STREAM MONDAY NIGHT, SLOWLY
SUBSIDING TO BECOME 3-5 FT BY WEDNESDAY. WINDS LIGHTEN OUT OF THE
EAST-NORTHEAST TUESDAY, SHIFTING SOUTH WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. MOSTLY DRY OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
HIGHER THAN NORMAL UNCERTAINTY FOR CONVECTION SUNDAY AFTERNOON, AS
MODELS DISAGREE ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT. REGARDLESS, COVERAGE
LOOKS TO INCREASE COMPARED TO THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS. HAVE TRIED TO
TIME OUT SHOWERS, AND EVENTUALLY STORMS, DEVELOPING ALONG THE
WEST COAST SEA BREEZE BY AROUND 18-20Z. THEN, A COLLISION ALONG
THE PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AT THE COAST. THUS, HAVE ONLY
INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS FROM AROUND 21Z-1Z. HOWEVER,
WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR CONVECTION IMPACTING INTERIOR TERMINALS AND
LINGERING NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE, PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS, LIGHTNING STRIKES,
AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL.
SW FLOW PREVAILS SUNDAY AT AROUND 8-10 KTS. THIS WILL PIN THE SEA
BREEZE TO COASTAL TERMINALS IN THE LATE AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS
BACKING E BEHIND IT. LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THEN RETURNS
OVERNIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FAR INLAND
TODAY, EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE JUST WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TODAY. WINDS SHIFT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TOMORROW. MINRH RECOVERS TODAY AND
TOMORROW BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS AGAIN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
GOOD TO VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION IS FORECAST EARLY THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 86 66 79 66 / 30 20 20 0
MCO 88 68 84 67 / 40 10 30 0
MLB 87 68 82 69 / 40 20 10 0
VRB 87 65 84 68 / 40 30 20 0
LEE 88 67 85 64 / 30 10 20 0
SFB 88 66 84 65 / 40 20 20 0
ORL 88 68 84 67 / 40 10 30 0
FPR 87 65 84 67 / 40 30 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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