855
FXUS62 KMLB 262348
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
748 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG A SEA BREEZE
COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OF 45-55 MPH, AND
SMALL HAIL.
- FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY, BECOMING POOR TO HAZARDOUS
OVER THE GULF STREAM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY BEHIND A FRONT.
- WARMER TODAY, SLIGHTLY COOLER ALONG THE COAST MONDAY, THEN
HOTTER MID TO LATE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL
STEADILY PUSH EASTWARD AND OFF THE COAST INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
THE DAY. MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY, SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS ITS
AXIS LOOSELY REMAINS OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL
TURN SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY WITH THE SEA BREEZE PATTERN CONTINUING.
HOWEVER, DUE TO THE DOMINATE OFFSHORE FLOW, THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL DOMINATE, WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE REMAINING
PINNED NEAR I-95 IN THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING
A LITTLE FARTHER PENETRATION OF THE SEA BREEZE.
FORECAST PW VALUES WILL BE AROUND 1.2-1.3" THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH
WILL SUPPORT AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A MEDIUM (30-50
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS ECFL. THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST COUNTIES AND IN VICINITY OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE WHERE THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR WITH
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BETWEEN OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND THE SEA BREEZE.
THERE IS A STRONG STORM ENVIRONMENT ENVIRONMENT IN VICINITY OF AND
JUST WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE DAY, WITH FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (1200-1600+ J/KG OF MUCAPE),
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-10 TO -11C AT 500MB), NEGATIVE LIFTED
INDEX VALUES, AS WELL AS A DECENT DRY LAYER IN THE MID TO UPPER
LEVELS WHICH WILL SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE AROUND 1000-
1200 J/KG). BECAUSE OF THIS, STRONGER STORMS (ESPECIALLY THOSE THAT
ARE COUPLED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY) WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-55 MPH,
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS, AND SMALL HAIL SHOULD UPDRAFTS BE ABLE TO
OVERCOME THE LAYER OF DRY AIR ALOFT. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH
DRY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT.
THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S, MAYBE EVEN A COUPLE LOCATIONS NEAR 90 DEGREES. A MINOR HEATRISK
WILL EXPAND TO MOST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON SUNDAY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S.
MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WILL PUSH EASTWARD TOWARDS THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE, A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE EASTERN US
COAST WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE
DAY. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE COLD FRONT REACHING OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY EARLY MORNING/SUNRISE AND THEN STEADILY PUSHING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY, CLEARING ECFL BY EARLY EVENING. LOCALLY,
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO AROUND 10 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENT (PW VALUES AROUND 1.0-1.3") TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-30 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE DAY, WITH DRY AIR BUILDING
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW ADEQUATE INSTABILITY
ALONG THE COAST (600-900 J/KG OF MUCAPE),COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (
-10 TO -11C AT 500MB), NEGATIVE LIFTED INDEX VALUES, AS WELL AS
SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE AROUND 700-900 J/KG). BECAUSE
OF THIS, STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-40 MPH, AND SMALL HAIL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER DUE TO THE NORTHEAST FLOW
AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER, BRINING TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL
ALONG THE COAST (LOW TO MID 80S) AND THROUGH THE ORLANDO METRO AREA
(MID 80S). HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL (MID TO
UPPER 80S) ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR, INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN
LAKE/OSCEOLA, AND OKEECHOBEE AS WELL AS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
TREASURE COAST.
TUESDAY-SUNDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL
PUSH EASTWARD AND OFF THE EASTERN SEABOARD ON TUESDAY. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE GREAT LAKES
REGION MID TO LATE WEEK BEFORE IT DEEPENS ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES AND MOVES OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD DOWN FROM THE
EASTERN US ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH
MID WEEK. MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH WILL THEN APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN HOW CLEANLY THE FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH, WITH WPC SHOWING THE FRONT CLEARING ECFL BY EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ANOTHER COLD FRONT (PERHAPS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE
PREVIOUS FRONT) WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL AREA SATURDAY, PUSHING
THROUGH ECFL ON SUNDAY.
DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES THEN RETURN ON THURSDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE, WITH LINGERING MOISTURE MAINTAINING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DUE TO THE FACT
THAT THE TREND IN RAIN CHANCES HAVE INCREASED THROUGH THAT TIME
FRAME, ADDITIONAL INCREASES IN RAIN CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE IN FUTURE
FORECAST PACKAGES. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THOSE TRENDS CAREFULLY.
AS OF NOW, THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES (50 PERCENT AREA WIDE) OCCUR ON
SUNDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON A GENERAL WARMING TREND THROUGH EARLY
WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH LOW 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY
MID WEEK, WITH LOW 90S EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF ECFL BY SATURDAY.
TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH
TEMPERATURES BECOMING NEAR NORMAL FROM BREVARD TO OSCEOLA NORTHWARD,
AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE
COUNTIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH
LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOW 70S POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND ALONG
THE SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
TODAY-THURSDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE
SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD AGAIN AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
PRODUCING POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS. LIGHT WINDS SHIFT
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST (ONSHORE) EACH AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SEAS 2-3 FT THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE BUILDING UP TO 7 FT IN
THE OFFSHORE WATERS ON MONDAY WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS BEGIN
TO GRADUALLY DECREASE ON TUESDAY, WITH SEAS SUBSIDING TO 4-6 FT ON
TUESDAY, 3-5FT ON WEDNESDAY, AND 2-4FT ON THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL WATERS. SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS TODAY WILL
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS WILL THEN
SHIFT NORTH TO NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY, SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON
WEDNESDAY, AND WESTERLY ON THURSDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AND
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 10
KT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY, BUT MAINLY NORTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL AS THE NEXT FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AND SMALL CRAFT
EXERCISE STATEMENTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE NEEDED ON MONDAY AS SEAS
BUILD TO 7 FT.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA HAVE BEEN PERSIST, CONTINUING NEAR KVRB-KSUA
AND ALONG A LINE NEAR KSFB/KMCO LATE THIS EVENING, AND CAN'T RULE
OUT REDEVELOPMENT INVOF KTIX-KMLB. EXPECT ACTIVITY TO WIND DOWN
AFTER 01Z AND MOSTLY DISSIPATE BY AROUND 03Z, BUT COULD SEE SOME
ISO SHRA LINGER A FEW HOURS LATER. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR-IFR
CIGS TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHERN TERMINALS, INCLUDING KMCO, MONDAY
MORNING AFTER 10Z AHEAD OF A FRONT SAGGING INTO THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. CHANCES ARE GENERALLY LOW AND BRIEF, 10-30% BETWEEN
10Z-14Z, BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT/VRB WINDS TONIGHT QUICKLY BECOMING BREEZY/GUSTY
MONDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA, INCREASING
TO 13-18 KTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KTS FROM THE NORTHEAST
AFTER 14Z, THEN SETTLING DOWN AFTER 00Z. A FEW SHRA MIGHT BRUSH
THE COAST INVOF KDAB MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 301 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2026
LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FAR INLAND
TODAY, EVENTUALLY COLLIDING WITH THE EAST COAST BREEZE JUST WEST OF
THE I-95 CORRIDOR. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG
THE COLLISION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH A FEW STORMS
BECOMING STRONG. NEW FIRE STARTS ARE A CONCERN WITH LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY TODAY. WINDS SHIFT OVERNIGHT, BECOMING NORTHEAST 10-15 MPH
BEHIND A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TOMORROW. MINRH RECOVERS TODAY AND
TOMORROW BEFORE A DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS AGAIN TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK.
GOOD TO VERY GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION IS FORECAST EARLY THIS WEEK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 80 67 82 / 20 10 0 0
MCO 68 84 67 87 / 10 20 0 0
MLB 68 82 70 82 / 20 20 0 0
VRB 66 84 68 83 / 20 20 0 0
LEE 67 85 65 88 / 10 10 0 0
SFB 67 84 65 86 / 20 20 0 0
ORL 68 85 67 87 / 10 20 0 0
FPR 65 84 68 83 / 30 20 0 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...HALEY
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