029
FXUS62 KMLB 270736
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
336 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
- A HOT AND DRY PATTERN WILL BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK. MANY
INTERIOR LOCATIONS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE LOW 90S FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO LATE WEEK.
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST BEHIND A WEAK
COLD FRONT TODAY.
- A LONG PERIOD SWELL BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS
THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MONDAY-TUESDAY... A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE THE
EASTERN U.S. SEABOARD. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST WILL PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR QUICKLY BUILDING EARLY TUESDAY. LOW
RAIN CHANCES (~10-20%) MAY EXIST IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT TODAY.
WEAK FORCING ALONG THE FRONT PAIRED WITH FAVORABLE SURFACE
INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN A LOW CHANCE FOR A LIGHTNING STORM,
MAINLY SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND THE CAPE. ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS
(~10%) MAY MOVE ONTO THE COAST BEHIND THE FRONT AS NORTHEAST FLOW
(10-15 MPH) DEVELOPS. THESE LINGERING COASTAL SHOWERS LOOK TO
MOSTLY DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT AS THE DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS,
ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH-RES GUIDANCE MAY BE A TAD OPTIMISTIC IN KEEPING
A MENTION INTO TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
WIDELY PREVAIL TUESDAY.
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT SHOULD HELP REGULATE
TEMPERATURES SOME COMPARED TO PRIOR DAYS, AND VALUES SHOULD RETURN
CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY. MUCH OF VOLUSIA AND AREAS OF COASTAL BREVARD
LOOK TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW 80S THIS AFTERNOON WHILE MUCH OF THE
TREASURE COAST AND INTERIOR COUNTIES SHOULD SPREAD THE MID 80S. A
FEW UPPER 80S STILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS INTERIOR OSCEOLA AND
OKEECHOBEE. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE SHOULD KEEP MUCH OF THE COAST
IN THE LOW 80S TUESDAY WITH AREAS WEST OF I-95 WARMING INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
A LONG PERIOD SWELL (14-17 SECONDS) BUILDING ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS WILL PROMOTE AN INCREASING RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS
WEEK. A HIGH RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL EXIST ALONG
THE VOLUSIA COAST TODAY AND WILL LIKELY EXPAND ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTLINE INTO TUESDAY. HEED THE ADVICE OF
LIFEGUARDS, BEACH PATROL FLAGS, AND SIGNS!
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD SINKS
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY WEDNESDAY WITH IT'S RIDGE AXIS
BRIEFLY SETTLING ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY REGION MOVES OFFSHORE THE ATLANTIC COAST
THURSDAY PULLING THE NEXT COLD FRONT INTO FLORIDA. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS ARE STILL TRYING TO RESOLVE HOW THE FRONT WILL EVOLVE AS IT
APPROACHES OR MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA. REGARDLESS OF HOW
CLEANLY THE BOUNDARY MAY PASS, THERE IS GENERALLY GOOD CONSENSUS ON
QPF REMAINING LIMITED WITH MOST AREAS REMAINING DRY THROUGH FRIDAY.
SHOULD RAIN CHANCES EVOLVE WITH THIS FEATURE, THE BEST CHANCES
APPEAR TO BE ON THURSDAY WHERE THERE IS ONLY A LOW (~20%) MENTION
NEAR AND NORTH OF THE ORLANDO METRO. LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK LOOKS TO BE A MORE REASONABLE CHANCE FOR MENTIONABLE RAINFALL
AS YET ANOTHER FRONT PASSES THE AREA.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. BY WEDNESDAY, ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES SUGGEST
MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE
90 DEGREE MARK, AND INTERIOR HIGHS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST NEAR 90F
THROUGH SATURDAY. ALONG THE COAST, HIGHS SHOULD MORE WIDELY VARY
THROUGH THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S MID TO LATE WEEK, "COOLEST" ON FRIDAY
IN ONSHORE FLOW. SOME RELIEF COMES ON SUNDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND RAIN
CHANCES INCREASE AND NORTHERLY FLOW BEGINS TO ADVECT COOLER AIR.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION AS NORTHEAST WINDS 15-20 KTS SPREAD THE VOLUSIA AND
BREVARD WATERS MID TO LATE MORNING, INCREASING ACROSS THE TREASURE
COAST WATERS INTO THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILD 4-6 FT ACROSS THE
NEARSHORE WATERS, PEAKING UP TO 7 FT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF
STREAM. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE VOLUSIA
AND BREVARD OFFSHORE WATERS AT 5 PM TODAY FOR SEAS UP TO 7 FT. SEAS
SLOWLY SUBSIDE INTO TONIGHT ALLOWING THE OFFSHORE BREVARD SCA TO
EXPIRE AT 5 AM TUESDAY WITH THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA SCA FOLLOWING AT 11
AM. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL WATERS INTO TUESDAY WILL
ALLOW FOR IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH ONSHORE WINDS SLACKENING AROUND
10 KTS AND SEAS MOSTLY SUBSIDING 3-5FT. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
EXERCISE CAUTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF STREAM THROUGH SUNSET
TUESDAY FOR LOCALIZED HIGHER SEAS UP TO 6 FT. MORE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS THEN BUILD THROUGH MUCH OF MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT MON APR 27 2026
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING ONSHORE, MAINLY FROM MLB NORTHWARD, THROUGH THIS MORNING
ALONG AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT. HOWEVER, COVERAGE IS FORECAST TO BE
LOW ENOUGH TO NEGATE THE NEED FOR VCSH MENTION. PRIMARILY VFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD, THOUGH CIGS SCT030 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON MAY
OCCASIONALLY BECOME BKN, AND THUS MVFR, TODAY. WILL CONTINUE TO
WATCH THE THREAT FOR MVFR CIGS PRIOR TO DAYBREAK AT NORTHERN
TERMINALS, THOUGH CHANCES REMAIN LOW. TONIGHT, A SIMILAR
SITUATION IS FORECAST, WITH CIGS DROPPING TO SCT020. BREEZY NNE
WINDS, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS 12-17 KTS
AND GUSTS 20-25 KTS. WILL SEE WINDS DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET, BUT
REMAIN AROUND 5-10 KTS THROUGH 6Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 79 66 82 64 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 84 67 87 66 / 10 0 0 0
MLB 82 69 82 69 / 10 10 0 0
VRB 83 68 82 67 / 10 10 10 0
LEE 85 64 88 66 / 10 0 0 0
SFB 84 65 87 64 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 84 67 87 67 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 83 67 83 66 / 10 10 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 11 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
TUESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...LEAHY
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