957
FXUS62 KMLB 110728
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
328 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING BACK TOWARDS THE COAST INTO
THE EVENING. THIS DIURNAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
TO MID-WEEK.
- SOME STORMS AND MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG
TO DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A BRIEF
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- HIGHS REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL TODAY, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
MID 90S TO LOW 100'S. TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE BEHIND
THE FRONT ON TUESDAY BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO
MID/LATE WEEK. LOW TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL AND
CONDITIONS HUMID.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY, PUSHING
INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TONIGHT, REACHING CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
CWA BY SUNRISE ON TUESDAY. LOCALLY, WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 5-10 MPH
WILL VEER NORTHWEST BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WINDS ALONG THE
COAST WILL VEER ONSHORE (E-SE) IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE (WHICH WILL BE PINNED CLOSER TO THE
COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS), WITH SPEEDS BECOMING ENHANCED TO 10-15
MPH. MOISTURE REMAIN HIGH ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA, WITH PW VALUES OF
1.7-1.9", WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A MEDIUM TO HIGH (30-70
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN. HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL
GENERALLY BE FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE EASTWARD.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE BY MID AFTERNOON, WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
FORMING ALONG THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES TOWARDS ECFL.
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IS FORECAST TO HAPPEN EAST OF ORLANDO,
CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN
PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING IN THE
DOMINATE WESTERLY FLOW.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE ONCE AGAIN. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS PUT ALL OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) TODAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS
BY SHOWING AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 1800-2400 J/KG), SUFFICIENT
SHEAR (SFC-6KM OF 20-30 KT), AND ADEQUATE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE
OF 500-800 J/KG). STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 45-55 MPH, WITH UP TO 15
PERCENT CHANCE OF WIND GUSTS OF 60+MPH, HAIL UP TO 1.0", AND LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWN POURS OF 1-3" POSSIBLE. A BRIEF TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN BOUNDARY COLLISIONS BETWEEN THE SEA BREEZE AND STORMS (LESS THAN
2 PERCENT CHANCE).
HOT AND HUMID ONCE AGAIN. THE NBM HAS BEEN COMING IN SLIGHTLY UNDER
WHAT HAS ACTUALLY OCCURRED THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS, AND GIVEN THAT
THE SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AND PUSH INLAND MID AFTERNOON
ONCE AGAIN, HAVE OPTED TO INCREASE TEMPS BY A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA TO COME INTO BETTER ALIGNMENT WITH PAST
OBSERVATIONS. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ACROSS THE NORTH, AND LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS THE SOUTH, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES OF 98-105. NOT MUCH RELIEF OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
REMAINING IN THE 70S. THESE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PRODUCE A
MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK FOR MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH A
MAJOR HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE TREASURE COAST.
TUESDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN THE MORNING WILL SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY,
SETTLING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE IN THE DAY. LOCALLY, NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL DOMINATE, WITH SPEEDS BECOMING ENHANCED TO 10-15 MPH IN
THE AFTERNOON WITH THE FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. DEEP
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.9" IN THE
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL SUPPORT HIGH RAIN (70 PERCENT) CHANCES AREAWIDE
IN THE AFTERNOON. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG. MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL
BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-3" POSSIBLE. WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOWING COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-9 TO -10C AT 500 MB),
ADEQUATE INSTABILITY (500-700 J/KG) AND DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE
AROUND 300-800 J/KG).
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME MORE SEASONABLE ON TUESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ALONG THE
COAST, AND MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH
LATE WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE LOCAL AREA FROM
THE DEEP SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE
BEHIND THE FRONT CONTINUING INTO LATE WEEK. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON, ENHANCING THE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE,
RESULTING IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH MID-WEEK, WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AIDING CONVECTION. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH
(60-70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AREAWIDE ON TUESDAY, AND LOW TO
MEDIUM (20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE ON THURSDAY, MAINLY EAST OF ORLANDO
DOWN TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE EASTWARD. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-30 PERCENT) SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES ON
WEDNESDAY (IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S), BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE INTO
THE LOW 90S BY LATE WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 324 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY... INCREASED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE, RESULTING
IN AN INCREASED SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM THREAT TODAY, AIDED BY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY BEING PUSHED BACK TOWARDS THE
COAST. A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE. PRIMARY
STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES AND STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
A WEAK FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE LOCAL WATERS TODAY, PUSHING INTO
CENTRAL FLORIDA WATERS TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
PUSH SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS TUESDAY, SETTLING ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA LATE TUESDAY. SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY TODAY AT
10-15 KT WILL BECOME N/NW TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING NE/E TUESDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BRIEFLY. SEAS 2-
4FT WILL INCREASE TO 3-5FT ON TUESDAY, BRIEFLY REACHING 7FT IN THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-6FT ON
WEDNESDAY, AND 3-4FT ON THURSDAY AND UP TO 7FT IN THE OFFSHORE
WATERS BY TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING TO 4-6FT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND 3-5FT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY, DECREASING TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS ON THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR. WILL MONITOR
ANY BR DEVELOPMENT THRU 13Z FOR NEEDED AMDS. SW FLOW RESUMES 7-12
KT AFTER 15Z WITH THE ECSB FORMING AFTER 18Z AND SLOWLY MOVING
INLAND. ISO. SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST BY 19-20Z ALONG THE BREEZE,
FOLLOWED BY A SEA BREEZE COLLISION JUST EAST OF MCO/SFB BY
21-23Z. THIS WILL SPARK SCT. TSRA WITH A CHANCE FOR 35+ KT WIND
AND 1" HAIL IN THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY (FOCUSED FROM TIX
SOUTHWARD). TSRA MAY LINGER THRU 02-03Z, ESP. VRB TO SUA, BEFORE
DISSIPATING OR MOVING OFFSHORE. CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED FOR COASTAL SITES, AND TEMPOS LIKELY NEEDED BY THE 12Z
TAF.
A FRONT ARRIVES BEYOND THE END OF THIS TAF PERIOD, VEERING WINDS
N/NE ON TUE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 71 83 71 / 40 30 70 30
MCO 92 73 86 71 / 50 10 70 20
MLB 91 75 85 75 / 60 40 70 40
VRB 93 74 86 75 / 60 50 70 60
LEE 90 72 86 70 / 30 10 70 20
SFB 91 72 86 70 / 50 20 70 20
ORL 91 73 86 71 / 40 10 70 20
FPR 93 74 86 74 / 70 50 70 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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