127
FXUS62 KMLB 120608
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
208 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH ACTIVITY PUSHING BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. THIS DIURNAL COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY TO MID-WEEK.
- SOME STORMS AND MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN ON TUESDAY. PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. A
BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- TEMPERATURES BECOME MORE SEASONABLE INTO TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SLOWLY INCREASING ONCE AGAIN INTO LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...FORECAST FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND
INTO THIS EVENING REMAINS ON TRACK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL DEVELOP WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES, WITH
STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY AS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR NEAR TO SOUTHEAST OF I-4 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL SHIFT EAST BACK TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING. A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OF
SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAIN THREATS FROM STORMS WILL CONTINUE
TO BE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 40-60 MPH, COIN-SIZED
HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HOWEVER, STILL
CAN'T RULE OUT A BRIEF TORNADO AS STORMS INTERACT WITH THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE.
CONVECTION DIMINISHES INTO THIS EVENING, WITH SOME LINGERING RAIN
CHANCES (20-30%), AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS NORTH OF ORLANDO
OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT PUSHES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FL.
REMAINING WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
TUESDAY...WEAK FRONT MOVES GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
TOMORROW, WITH A MOIST (PW 1.9-2.0") AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL HAVE AN EARLIER START INITIALLY ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING FARTHER SOUTH AND
INLAND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. HIGH RAIN CHANCES (~70%)
FORECAST ACROSS THE AREA, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS BECOMING SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS. CAPE WILL BE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG, WITH 0-6KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES INCREASING TO 35-45 KNOTS, WHICH SHOULD AGAIN HELP LEAD
TO STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE DAY 2
OUTLOOK. THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL AGAIN BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-60 MPH, COIN-
SIZED HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL, WITH A VERY LOW THREAT FOR A
BRIEF TORNADO. THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS CLOSER TO NORMAL TOMORROW, IN THE MID
TO UPPER 80S.
FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO TUESDAY NIGHT AS IT
CONTINUES A SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT. LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES ONSHORE,
WHICH WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND A FEW
STORMS, PRIMARILY ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS TOMORROW NIGHT
WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WEAK FRONT WILL
LINGER ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND EITHER FADE OR GRADUALLY SHIFT
SOUTH AS A PASSING S/W DEVELOPS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL
OFFSHORE. THIS LOW WILL THEN SHIFT NORTHEAST, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING DOWN THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OFFSHORE LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME A LITTLE MORE VARIABLE INTO WEDNESDAY AND
THEN BECOME NORTHWEST THURSDAY, BEFORE EVENTUALLY VEERING BACK
ONSHORE INTO LATE WEEK THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON, ENHANCING THE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH.
LINGERING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE,
KEEPING HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (UP TO 60-70%) THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT AIDING CONVECTION. RAIN CHANCES THEN DECREASE
THROUGH LATE WEEK TO 20% SOUTHEAST OF I-4 ON THURSDAY, WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS (20-30 PERCENT) RETURN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN CLOSER TO SEASONAL VALUES ON WEDNESDAY (IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S), BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE INTO THE LOW 90S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR INTO THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT MON MAY 11 2026
TONIGHT-TUESDAY...SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS, SOME WHICH MAY
BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO BOATERS THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT, MAINLY ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS AND NORTH OF THE CAPE AS A WEAK FRONT NEARS THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT. OUTSIDE OF STORMS, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
GENERALLY FAVORABLE TONIGHT, WITH SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS EVENING
BECOMING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT, AND THEN WEST-NORTHWEST LATE,
NEAR TO NORTH OF THE CAPE. WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KNOTS THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FEET.
BOATING CONDITIONS WILL THEN DETERIORATE INTO TUESDAY AS FRONT
SETTLES SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS, AND WINDS QUICKLY VEER
ONSHORE. WINDS WILL BECOME EAST-NORTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO
15-20 KNOTS OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS, NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET
INTO THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL BUILD SEAS UP TO 4-6 FEET,
POTENTIALLY UP TO 7 FEET BRIEFLY OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF
VOLUSIA COUNTY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. HIGH COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS FORECAST ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THE FRONT MOVING IN, AND
SOME STRONG TO ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...FRONT GRADUALLY FADES WITH SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS LINGERING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS WELL OFFSHORE AND LIFTS NORTHEAST, WITH ONSHORE WINDS
WEDNESDAY BECOMING NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THURSDAY. WINDS THEN
BECOME ONSHORE THROUGH LATE WEEK INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND OFFSHORE. WIND
SPEEDS REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 3-5
FEET WEDNESDAY, 2-4 FEET THURSDAY AND 2-3 FEET FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS.
WINDS WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT BY 15Z. MUCH LIKE
YESTERDAY, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AFTER
18Z, AND PROGRESS INLAND, ALTHOUGH A LITTLE QUICKER PROGRESSION IS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST BY 19-20Z ALONG THE
BREEZE, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA PUSHING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WHICH WILL MOVING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL SPARK SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS BETWEEN STORMS AND
THE SEA BREEZE, WHICH WILL STEADILY MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH TIME.
TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35+ KT WIND IN THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY (FOCUSED FROM MCO- TIX SOUTHWARD). TSRA MAY LINGER THRU
02-03Z, ESP. VRB TO SUA, BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OFFSHORE.
CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN STRONGER CONVECTION.
HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR 3SM TSRA BKN030 EVERYWHERE, STARTING
ACROSS THE NORTH (LEE- DAB) AT 18Z, PROGRESSING TO MCO-SFB-ISM AT
20Z, TIX-MLB AT 21Z, AND VRB-FPR-SUA AT 22/23Z. WINDS BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03/04Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 70 83 69 / 80 70 50 10
MCO 85 71 86 70 / 80 50 60 10
MLB 83 73 85 72 / 80 70 60 20
VRB 85 73 86 71 / 80 70 70 30
LEE 84 70 85 69 / 80 50 60 10
SFB 84 70 86 69 / 80 50 60 10
ORL 86 71 86 70 / 80 50 60 10
FPR 86 73 87 70 / 80 70 70 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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