811
FXUS62 KMLB 121424
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1024 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA.
- STORMS MAY BE SEVERE, MAINLY BETWEEN 2PM AND 11PM, CAPABLE OF
FREQUENT LIGHTNING, DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING. THERE IS ALSO A LOW RISK
FOR TORNADOES.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT
AREA BEACHES.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 1024 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE AS FORECAST LOOKS GENERALLY ON
TRACK FOR TODAY. FRONT HAS CURRENTLY PUSHED SOUTH OF DAYTONA
BEACH, WHICH HAS LED TO A LITTLE MORE BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST. SOME BREAKS ARE OBSERVED IN THE
CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, MAINLY NEAR TO SOUTH OF ORLANDO AND
WILL HELP WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE THE
AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. SHOULD SEE MLCAPE VALUES REACH AROUND
1000-1500 J/KG OR HIGHER INTO THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES IN THE
MORNING SOUNDING AT THE CAPE ARE AROUND 1.7-1.8" AND MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS THESE VALUES INCREASING CLOSER TO 1.8-2.0" THROUGH
LATE DAY. THIS WILL LEAD A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND COMBINE
WITH THE SOUTHWARD MOVING FRONT AND INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING (RAIN CHANCES AROUND 80%).
TRENDS IN HI-RES GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO FAVOR INITIAL CONVECTION
FIRING UP ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL THEN OCCUR WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES AND
COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, WITH A
WESTERLY STEERING FLOW OF AROUND 20 KNOTS AT 700MB STEERING ANY
CONVECTION BACK TO THE COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH LATE DAY AND
INTO THE EVENING. PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL CONTINUE TO INCLUDE
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH AND COLDER
TEMPS ALOFT (AROUND -8 TO -9C AT 500MB) MAY LEAD TO LARGE HAIL OF
AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION. INCREASING 0-3KM SHEAR (100-200 M2/S2) AND MULTIPLE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY ALSO LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A BRIEF
TORNADO OR TWO. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO OCCUR WITH ANY STORMS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AT WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE
AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF THEY ARE ISSUED
LATER TODAY!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...IT IS WARM AND MUGGY OUT THERE WITH TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S. 03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE AL/FL/GA BORDER, ONE OF SEVERAL FEATURES WE
WILL BE MONITORING IN CONNECTION WITH A SEVERE STORM RISK THIS
AFTERNOON. IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A WEST-EAST ORIENTED JET STREAK WILL
BE SITUATED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FL, OR ALONG AND JUST NORTH OF THE
SURFACE FRONT. H5 SHORTWAVE ENERGY LOOKS TO TRAIL THE SURFACE FRONT,
MOVING OVER THE FL PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. WITH 1.8-2.0"
PW VALUES PRESENT, A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
FORECAST. A MAJORITY OF THIS CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH LOCATIONS
SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL (I.E. MELBOURNE, TREASURE COAST) SEEING MORE
SUNSHINE THAN NORTHERN AREAS. ALSO, THE ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING
SOUTH OF THE GREATER CLOUD COVERAGE (AND SURFACE FRONT) SUPPORTS
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOW 80S (NORTH) TO THE UPPER 80S (INLAND).
THIS AFTERNOON'S ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD-MOVING FRONT
WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY: EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40+ KT, STEEP
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, 2000-3000+ J/KG SBCAPE, 100-200 J/KG 3CAPE,
AND 100-200 M2/S2 0-3KM SRH. WHILE QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO MORNING
CLOUD COVER AND HOW THAT AFFECTS DAYTIME INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, THESE PARAMETERS SUGGEST A SUPPORTIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DAMAGING WINDS
OF 60+ MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN THE PRIMARY
CONCERNS, THOUGH MORE RIGOROUS UPDRAFTS COULD SUPPORT LARGE HAIL UP
TO 1.25" IN DIAMETER. THERE IS A TORNADO RISK PRESENT, PARTICULARLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT. INTERACTIONS BETWEEN SOUTHWARD-MOVING
STORMS, THE FRONT ITSELF, AND INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE COULD LOCALLY
ENHANCE TORNADO POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY IF LOWER LCLS MATERIALIZE.
THERE ARE A NUMBER OF INHIBITING FACTORS, INCLUDING EARLY-DAY CLOUDS
AND ANY PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST COAST. THE SPC
HAS INCLUDED ALL OF EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 5) FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS AS WELL, RESULTING IN A
QUICK 1.0-2.5" OF ACCUMULATION. HREF PROBABILITIES OF 24-HOUR QPF
REACHING 5" OR GREATER ARE GENERALLY 20-40% FOR LARGE SECTIONS OF
OUR COAST. DESPITE RECENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS, HIGH RAINFALL RATES OF
3-4"+ PER HOUR COULD LEAD TO PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS AND IN LOW-
LYING OR URBAN AREAS. A MARGINAL RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IT
OUTLINED FOR MUCH OF ECFL, FOCUSED FROM THE ORLANDO AREA EASTWARD,
INCLUDING THE ENTIRE COAST.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENTLY POINTING TO 2-11 PM FOR THE GREATEST THREAT
OF SEVERE STORMS, WITH ACTIVITY DISSIPATING NORTH-TO-SOUTH MID TO
LATE EVENING. MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST AT WEATHER.GOV/MELBOURNE
AND HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WARNINGS IF THEY ARE ISSUED LATER
TODAY!
WEDNESDAY-MONDAY...TODAY'S SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL NEAR
LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. SLIGHT MODEL
DIFFERENCES EXIST WITH PW RANGING FROM 1.4-1.6" IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST MOISTURE AND SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE IN
VICINITY OF THE FRONT, THOUGH A 40-55% CHANCE FOR RAIN EXISTS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY FORECAST, BUT A
STRONG STORM ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH CANNOT BE RULED OUT. SOME MORE
SUNSHINE BETWEEN THE CLOUDS SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REBOUND INTO
THE MID/UPPER 80S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND REMAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HELPS ESTABLISH ONSHORE FLOW,
ESPECIALLY BY THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. BY
MONDAY NEXT WEEK, HEAT INDICES BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 90S.
RAIN CHANCES STAY RELATIVELY LOW (15-25%), FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ARE THE DRIEST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST,
BUT A SPOT SHOWER SOUTH OR ALONG THE COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE WEEKEND, BRINGING RAIN CHANCES UP A BIT.
OVERALL THOUGH, EXPECT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
ONWARD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH ACROSS
THE WATERS TODAY, ACCOMPANIED BY HIGH RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES. LOWER SHOWER COVERAGE IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH
RAIN AND STORMS BECOMING NUMEROUS AFTER 1-3 PM. ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT
SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE FRONT, AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS
FORECAST TO LINGER THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LOCAL ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40+ KNOTS, LARGE HAIL, AND
WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
OUTSIDE OF STORMS, CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE NORTH OF
THE CAPE AS NORTHEAST WINDS FRESHEN (15-20 KT). SOME MODELS INDICATE
GUSTS OF 25-30+ KT MOVING SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON, BUT
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CLOSER TO CONSENSUS (20-25 KT). A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WAS ISSUED FOR TONIGHT/EARLY WED. (8 PM - 8 AM WED.)
FOR THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS, WHERE SEAS REACH 7 FT. IF GRADIENT
WINDS INCREASE FURTHER AND BUILD SEAS OVER A LARGER AREA, THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT STALLS BRIEFLY ON WEDNESDAY
ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST WATERS. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS REMAIN
IN THE FORECAST, PARTICULARLY FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD. SEAS UP TO 5-
6 FT MAY LINGER IN THE GULF STREAM, MAINLY IN THE VOLUSIA OFFSHORE
WATERS. DRIER WEATHER RETURNS THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE MOISTURE
INCREASES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE
MORNING TURN ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SEAS
DECREASE TO 2-4 FT THURSDAY ONWARD. BY FRIDAY/SATURDAY, EASTERLY
FLOW BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED (10-15 KT) AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES
OVER THE LOCAL WATERS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 708 AM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION TODAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NE AND INCREASE TO 8-12 KT
BY 15Z. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM AFTER 18Z,
AND PROGRESS INLAND, ALTHOUGH A LITTLE QUICKER PROGRESSION IS
EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA ARE FORECAST BY 19-20Z ALONG THE
BREEZE, WITH THE COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FORECAST
TO BE BETWEEN MCO AND LEE. ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA PUSHING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO INTERACT WITH THE
SEA BREEZE COLLISION, WITH STORMS PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH
LATE EVENING. TSRA WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 35+ KT WIND IN
THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY (FOCUSED FROM MCO-TIX SOUTHWARD). TSRA MAY
LINGER THRU 02-03Z, ESP. VRB TO SUA, BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING
OFFSHORE. CIG AND VIS REDUCTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED IN STRONGER
CONVECTION. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR 3SM TSRA BKN030 EVERYWHERE,
STARTING ACROSS THE NORTH (LEE-DAB) AT 18Z, PROGRESSING TO MCO-
SFB-ISM AT 20Z, TIX-MLB AT 21Z, AND VRB-FPR-SUA AT 22/23Z. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN AFTER 03/04Z WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BEFORE BECOMING N/NNW AND INCREASING TO 5-10 KT AROUND
15Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 80 70 83 69 / 80 70 50 10
MCO 85 71 86 70 / 80 50 60 10
MLB 83 73 85 72 / 80 70 60 20
VRB 85 73 86 71 / 80 70 70 30
LEE 84 70 85 69 / 80 50 60 10
SFB 84 70 86 69 / 80 50 60 10
ORL 86 71 86 70 / 80 50 60 10
FPR 86 73 87 70 / 80 70 70 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM EDT
WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WATSON
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