783
FXUS62 KMLB 122343
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
743 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
- SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK CONTINUES AT
AREA BEACHES.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...WEAK FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SLOWLY
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND IS
FORECAST TO EVENTUALLY STALL SOUTH OF ORLANDO LATE TONIGHT. CLOUD
COVER HAS INCREASED ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALREADY FALLING INTO THE UPPER 70S NEAR TO NORTH OF
ORLANDO. ALREADY HAD ONE SEVERE STORM WORK ITS WAY FROM SEMINOLE
COUNTY THROUGH ORANGE AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES EARLIER TODAY,
PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL UP TO AN INCH IN DIAMETER. GREATER
INSTABILITY (MLCAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG) CURRENTLY EXISTS NOW ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL FL WHERE GREATER DAYTIME HEATING HAS
OCCURRED, AND THIS MAY THEREFORE LEAD TO A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONGER STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER, STILL CAN'T RULE OUT STRONG TO
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ANYWHERE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FL THROUGH
THIS EVENING.
PRIMARY THREATS CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 40-60 MPH AND HAIL UP TO 1 INCH IN
DIAMETER. HOWEVER, A LOW THREAT STILL EXISTS FOR A BRIEF TORNADO
OR TWO WITH INCREASING 0-3KM HELICITY OF 100-200 M2/S2 AND
POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. ADDITIONALLY,
LOCALLY HEAVY TO POTENTIALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A
CONCERN. 12Z HREF PROBABILITIES SHOWING A 40-50% CHANCE FOR
RAINFALL OF 5+ INCHES, MAINLY ALONG THE VOLUSIA COUNTY COAST
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND MAYBE EXTENDED SOME INTO THE OVERNIGHT.
OTHERWISE, STORMS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A QUICK 1-3
INCHES OF RAINFALL. WITH THE ONGOING DROUGHT THESE RAINFALL TOTALS
SHOULD LARGELY BE BENEFICIAL, BUT ANY HIGHER TOTALS, ESPECIALLY
SHOULD ANY EXCEED 5 INCHES IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MAY LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. A MARGINAL RISK (AT LEAST 5% CHANCE) FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF EAST CENTRAL
FL FOCUSED NEAR TO EAST OF ORLANDO.
WEDNESDAY...THE SURFACE FRONT IS FORECAST TO LINGER NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEE AND THE TREASURE COAST ON WEDNESDAY. PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-
1.8" LOOK TO LINGER THROUGH TOMORROW, KEEPING RAIN CHANCES ELEVATED
TO 50-70%. HOWEVER, THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON/EVENING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA CLOSER TO THE FRONT. THE SEVERE THREAT LOWERS INTO
WEDNESDAY, BUT A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY FROM BREVARD COUNTY SOUTHWARD. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HIGHS REMAIN CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
THURSDAY-MONDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATE THIS WEEK AND REMAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS HELPS ESTABLISH ONSHORE FLOW, ESPECIALLY BY
THE WEEKEND. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING
THE LOW 90S INLAND FROM SATURDAY ONWARD. BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK, HEAT
INDICES BEGIN TO APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 90S. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES 10-20%. THEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY, BUT STILL RELATIVELY LOW (~20-30%), FOCUSED ALONG THE
COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 346 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
TONIGHT-WEDNESDAY...FRONT PUSHING SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON WILL STALL ACROSS THE WATERS, SOUTH OF THE CAPE,
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
15-20 KNOTS BUILDING SEAS TO 6-8 FEET LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. MOVED UP START TIME OF THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SCA) FOR
THE OFFSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS TO 5PM AND THEN EXPANDED THE SCA
TO THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE BREVARD COUNTY
WATERS AT 8PM. WHILE WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW, POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
WEDNESDAY AS SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS, SOME WHICH
MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE, WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TO
BOATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS ARE THEN FORECAST AGAIN INTO WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONGER STORMS STILL POSSIBLE.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH INTO LATE WEEK, WITH SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES DECREASING. N/NW WINDS UP TO 10-15 KNOTS
THURSDAY MORNING BECOME ONSHORE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND OFFSHORE THEN
KEEPS WINDS ONSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS
UP TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY TO 2-4
FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT TUE MAY 12 2026
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA FROM EARLIER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IS
FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THEN, MVFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT FROM MLB NORTHWARD, WITH A FRONT
STALLED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. CIGS LIFT FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
FROM AROUND 12-15Z, AS WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS, A FEW STRONG, ARE THEN
FORECAST AFTER 18-20Z, WITH TEMPOS POSSIBLE IN LATER UPDATES.
WINDS ALONG THE COAST BECOME NE/ENE BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE AFTER
AROUND 20Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 84 68 86 / 70 50 20 10
MCO 71 85 70 86 / 50 60 20 10
MLB 73 86 72 85 / 60 60 20 10
VRB 72 87 70 85 / 70 60 30 20
LEE 70 85 68 87 / 40 50 20 0
SFB 70 86 68 88 / 50 50 20 10
ORL 71 85 70 87 / 50 60 20 10
FPR 72 86 70 85 / 70 70 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ570.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ572.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...WISHARD
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