623
FXUS62 KMLB 130701
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
301 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM ORLANDO TO
CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
BEACHES AND MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IN THE BREVARD AND
VOLUSIA BEACHES IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY AROUND BREVARD/OSCEOLA AREA.
LOCALLY, WSW WINDS WILL DOMINATE, WITH SPEEDS 5-10 MPH. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, TURNING THE WINDS ENE
ALONG THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS ECFL TODAY, WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8". THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES (50-70 PERCENT), WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN, THE
ENVIRONMENT STILL SUPPORTS STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM BREVARD
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE 1200+ J/KG), SUFFICIENT SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR AT 20 KT),
ADEQUATE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE 500-700 J/KG), AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT (-7C AT 500MB). THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. AT THE BEACHES, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA BEACHES, AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BEACHES.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE
LATE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON, ENHANCING THE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES 10-
20 PERCENT (HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE). THEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN
THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY, WITH A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOW 90S INLAND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER AROUND BREVARD/OSCEOLA
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TODAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH SEAS TO
6-7 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS (THROUGH 5AM THIS MORNING) AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD (THROUGH 2PM THIS
AFTERNOON). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO LATE
WEEK. WHILE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DECREASE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
N/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10-15 KT WILL VEER ONSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA WATERS LATE WEEK, TURNING THE WINDS ONSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY TO 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 126 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST IN NEAR TERM FOR WIND DIRECTION AND CIGS
THAT HAVE BEEN BOUNCING ALL AROUND. COULD SEE AN ISOLD SHOWER
OVERNIGHT, ALMOST ANYWHERE. BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS FORECAST FROM
TIME-TO-TIME OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WED MORNING FROM NEAR VRB
NORTHWARD, WITH A WEAK FRONT NEAR THE TREASURE COAST. CIGS LIFT
SLOWLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM AROUND 12-15Z, AS VARIABLE/VEERING
WINDS INCREASE TO 8-12 KTS FROM THE W/NW. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
AROUND FOR AT LEAST SCT CONVECTION. CONTINUE "VICINITY" WORDING
FOR CONVECTION WED MORNING WITH TEMPO GROUPS TO FOLLOW ONCE
CONFIDENCE INCREASES. MVFR WITH CONVECTION ON WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 68 86 67 / 50 20 0 0
MCO 86 70 86 69 / 60 30 10 0
MLB 87 72 85 72 / 70 30 10 0
VRB 88 71 85 72 / 70 30 10 10
LEE 85 68 87 66 / 50 20 0 0
SFB 86 68 88 67 / 60 20 0 0
ORL 86 70 87 69 / 60 30 0 0
FPR 87 71 85 71 / 70 20 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
AMZ550.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-
572.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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