979
FXUS62 KMLB 131753
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHEST POTENTIAL WILL BE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE
CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG.
- THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD
BEACHES AND MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IN THE BREVARD AND
VOLUSIA BEACHES IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
- TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO NORMAL TODAY BEFORE INCREASING LATE WEEK
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
UPDATE
ISSUED AT 936 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH LATE DAY, BUT PW VALUES
UP TO 1.5-1.7" WILL STILL BE IN PLACE BY THE AFTERNOON. ONLY
NUDGED DOWN RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY (~10%) BASED ON TRENDS IN SOME
OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, WITH A LINGERING FRONT, PASSING
WEAK LOW PRESSURE AND SBCAPE VALUES INCREASING TO 1000-1500 J/KG,
SHOULD STILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOP
INTO THE AFTERNOON, PUSHING TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES RANGE FROM 40% NW OF I-4 TO 50-60% NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF
I-4 WHERE GREATER MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT.
WEAKER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR (~20 KNOTS) AND WARMER TEMPS ALOFT (-6 TO
-7C AT 500MB) LESSENS THE SEVERE THREAT TODAY. HOWEVER, DRIER AIR
ALOFT AND SW STEERING WINDS AROUND 20-25 KNOTS AT 700MB, COULD
STILL LEAD TO A FEW STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
MAIN THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG GUSTY
WINDS TO 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1-2".
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY, WITH NEAR NORMAL HIGHS
EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... THE SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY, GENERALLY AROUND BREVARD/OSCEOLA AREA.
LOCALLY, WSW WINDS WILL DOMINATE, WITH SPEEDS 5-10 MPH. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM IN THE AFTERNOON, TURNING THE WINDS ENE
ALONG THE COAST. DEEP MOISTURE LINGERS ACROSS ECFL TODAY, WITH PW
VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8". THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ELEVATED RAIN
CHANCES (50-70 PERCENT), WITH ACTIVITY MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
OFFSHORE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE FROM ORLANDO TO CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD. WHILE THE
OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS LOWER TODAY THAN WHAT IT HAS BEEN, THE
ENVIRONMENT STILL SUPPORTS STRONG STORMS, ESPECIALLY FROM BREVARD
COUNTY SOUTHWARD. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PLENTY OF INSTABILITY
(MUCAPE 1200+ J/KG), SUFFICIENT SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR AT 20 KT),
ADEQUATE DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE 500-700 J/KG), AND FAIRLY COOL
TEMPS ALOFT (-7C AT 500MB). THE MAIN STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S. AT THE BEACHES, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS FOR THE
BREVARD AND VOLUSIA BEACHES, AND A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST BEACHES.
THURSDAY-TUESDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND OUT INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH LATE
WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOCAL AREA AND REMAINS
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL VEER ONSHORE
LATE WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE WILL FORM EACH AFTERNOON, ENHANCING THE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST INTO LATE WEEK, WITH RAIN CHANCES 10-
20 PERCENT (HIGHEST CHANCES AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE). THEN A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN
THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY, WITH A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. A WARMING TREND IS FORECAST WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOW 90S INLAND THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HEAT INDICES
ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH THE MID/UPPER 90S NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 AM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... SURFACE FRONT WILL LINGER AROUND BREVARD/OSCEOLA
COUNTY AND THE ADJACENT WATERS TODAY. POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING
CONDITIONS CONTINUE, PRIMARILY NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY, WITH SEAS TO
6-7 FEET THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS (THROUGH 5AM THIS MORNING) AND
THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF VOLUSIA AND BREVARD (THROUGH 2PM THIS
AFTERNOON). SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY BE
STRONG.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... THE SURFACE FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHWARD INTO LATE
WEEK. WHILE RAIN AND STORM CHANCES DECREASE, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
N/NW WINDS ON THURSDAY AT 10-15 KT WILL VEER ONSHORE BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD OVER THE FLORIDA WATERS LATE WEEK, TURNING THE WINDS ONSHORE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 KT. SEAS WILL
DIMINISH FROM 3-5 FEET THURSDAY TO 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WEAK FRONT STILL LINGERS ACROSS CFL, SUPPORTING ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS FOR TEMPOS IN THE 18Z-22Z
TIMEFRAME AT MOST OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM
KMLB SOUTH WHERE DRIER AIR IS LESS SUPPORTIVE, AND KEEPING WITH
VCTS FOR NOW. WIND FIELD A BIT OF A MESS DUE TO THE FRONT, RANGING
FROM NW-N UP TO NORTH TO W DOWN SOUTH AT 7-12 KTS, VEERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN TO LIGHT/VRB NW-W
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FOG/STRATUS IS NOT FORECAST TONIGHT, BUT IF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO RELUCTANTLY PUSH SOUTH, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
REDUCTIONS. WINDS THURSDAY MAINLY NW, SHIFTING ONSHORE BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 86 67 85 / 20 10 0 0
MCO 70 86 68 88 / 30 10 0 10
MLB 72 84 71 85 / 40 10 10 10
VRB 71 85 70 86 / 30 10 10 10
LEE 68 86 65 88 / 20 10 0 10
SFB 68 88 66 89 / 20 10 0 10
ORL 70 87 68 89 / 20 10 0 10
FPR 71 84 70 85 / 30 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ570-
572.
UPDATE...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
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