616
FXUS62 KMLB 131837
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
237 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH A FEW STRONGER
STORMS POSSIBLE.
- TURNING DRIER INTO LATE WEEK, AND THEN SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES
RETURN AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, BUT MAY WARM INTO THE
LOW 90S WELL INLAND THIS WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT AREA BEACHES TODAY.
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA PUSHING A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD
INTO TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE, SHIFTING EAST-
NORTHEAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW
STRONGER STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH ANY BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS AT THE COAST, WHERE THE PINNED EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
CAN FORM. MAIN THREATS CONTINUE TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, STRONG
WIND GUSTS, SMALL HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. AS THE FRONT
SLOWLY PROGRESSES SOUTHWARD TONIGHT, MAY SEE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS
LINGER ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...AS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO
FILTER INTO THE AREA TOMORROW, WITH PW VALUES FALLING TO 1.0-1.2
INCHES. THIS WILL LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, WITH WINDS OUT OF
THE N/NW AROUND 5-10 MPH, BECOMING ONSHORE AT THE COAST AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE FORMS. WINDS THEN SWITCH ONSHORE INTO FRIDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S., WITH WIND SPEEDS
A TAD STRONGER AROUND 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY, BUT MAY SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION (CHANCE OF RAIN 20%). HIGHS REMAIN AROUND NORMAL
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MAY BE JUST A TAD
COOLER THEN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT, BUT STILL MOSTLY IN THE 60S. THEN AS
ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP, MIN TEMPS FRIDAY NIGHT BEGIN TO WARM BACK UP
TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SHIFTS OFFSHORE, WITH RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
NEAR TO NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS MAINTAINS AN ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS THE REGION, WITH A GRADUAL
INCREASE IN MOISTURE EXPECTED. THIS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES
SLIGHTLY, WITH AN OVERALL LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
RAIN EACH DAY, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST EARLY IN THE DAY AND
TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN EITHER NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, MOSTLY IN THE 80S, BUT
MAY SEE MAX TEMPS WELL INLAND REACH THE LOW 90S THIS WEEKEND.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 236 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
TONIGHT-THURSDAY...SCATTERED OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS, A FEW WHICH MAY
BE STRONG, WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD TO BOATERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. OTHERWISE, WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME N/NW AS A WEAK FRONT
ACROSS THE WATERS SHIFTS SOUTH LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL
LARGELY REMAIN BELOW 15 KNOTS, WITH SEAS 3-5 FEET.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. LATE
WEEK WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH WINDS BECOMING
ONSHORE. E/SE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 KNOTS, AND MAY BRIEFLY
INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES OFFSHORE MAINLY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE
FROM 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS RETURNING THIS WEEKEND AND CONTINUING
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 141 PM EDT WED MAY 13 2026
WEAK FRONT STILL LINGERS ACROSS CFL, SUPPORTING ISO-SCT TSRA/SHRA
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. RECENT RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL GUIDANCE
GIVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN TSRA IMPACTS FOR TEMPOS IN THE 18Z-22Z
TIMEFRAME AT MOST OF THE NORTHERN TERMINALS. LOWER CONFIDENCE FROM
KMLB SOUTH WHERE DRIER AIR IS LESS SUPPORTIVE, AND KEEPING WITH
VCTS FOR NOW. WIND FIELD A BIT OF A MESS DUE TO THE FRONT, RANGING
FROM NW-N UP TO NORTH TO W DOWN SOUTH AT 7-12 KTS, VEERING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, THEN RETURN TO LIGHT/VRB NW-W
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY FOG/STRATUS IS NOT FORECAST TONIGHT, BUT IF THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO RELUCTANTLY PUSH SOUTH, CAN'T RULE OUT SOME
REDUCTIONS. WINDS THURSDAY MAINLY NW, SHIFTING ONSHORE BEHIND THE
SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THURSDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 68 86 67 85 / 20 10 0 0
MCO 70 86 68 88 / 30 10 0 10
MLB 72 84 71 85 / 40 10 10 10
VRB 71 85 70 86 / 30 10 10 10
LEE 68 86 65 88 / 20 10 0 10
SFB 68 88 66 89 / 20 10 0 10
ORL 70 87 68 89 / 20 10 0 10
FPR 71 84 70 85 / 30 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...HALEY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page