369
FXUS62 KMLB 141038
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
638 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
- TURNING DRIER TODAY AND INTO LATE WEEK BEFORE SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES RETURN AND GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOW 90S FORECAST WELL
INLAND BY THIS WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY... A SURFACE FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTH
FLORIDA BY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA
TONIGHT, REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. LOCALLY, DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA STARTING TODAY, WITH FORECAST PW
VALUES DROPPING TO 1.0-1.3" TODAY, AND 0.8-1.2" ON FRIDAY. THIS WILL
LEAD TO MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, BUT FRIDAY MAY SEE A LOW
(20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. N/NW WINDS AT 5-10 MPH
TODAY WILL TURN ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US ON FRIDAY, TURNING THE LOCAL WINDS ONSHORE.
WIND SPEEDS WILL ENHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE
INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE ON FRIDAY. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST BOTH DAYS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOW 90S FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR
INTERIOR ON FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
TONIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 60S, BEFORE ONSHORE FLOW ON
FRIDAY INCREASES THE OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AT THE BEACHES, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT ALL AREA
BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
SATURDAY-WEDNESDEAY... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST, WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY, THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WINDS BECOMING ENHANCED TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN
THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY, WITH A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S, WITH LOW 90S WELL
INLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
TODAY-MONDAY... THE SURFACE FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL
HELP WINDS BECOME N/NW TODAY WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY BELOW 15 KT. SEAS
WILL BE 3-5FT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. BY LATE WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS
WILL BECOME ONSHORE (E/SE) AT 10-15 KT, AND MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO
15-20 KT AT TIMES OFFSHORE MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS EACH DAY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST
TODAY, MAINLY IN THE OFFSHORE WATERS FROM CAPE CANAVERAL SOUTHWARD.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE THEN FORECAST FOR FRIDAY, WITH DAILY
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING RETURNING THIS WEEKEND
AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 616 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
STILL MONITORING FOR ANY LOCAL MVFR/IFR EARLY THIS MORNING. LIGHT
NW/N WINDS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL VEER ONSHORE 8-12 KTS AT THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, TRENDING INLAND INTO EARLY EVENING.
GENERALLY VFR OTHERWISE AND DRY. WINDS BECOME L/V TO CALM AGAIN
TONIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 241 AM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
FIRE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AS MIN RH VALUES FALL
TO AS LOW AS THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND 35-45
PERCENT ACROSS THE REST OF THE INTERIOR IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
TURN E/SE ON FRIDAY, INCREASING TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THE INLAND-MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTED SHOWERS
AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AROUND THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION. LIGHTNING STRIKES POSE A RISK FOR NEW FIRE
STARTS. MIN RH VALUES RECOVER TO 45-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA IN THE ONSHORE
FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 86 67 86 72 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 87 68 89 71 / 0 0 10 0
MLB 85 72 86 77 / 10 10 10 10
VRB 85 71 87 76 / 10 10 10 10
LEE 87 66 89 71 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 89 66 90 71 / 0 0 10 0
ORL 88 68 90 72 / 0 0 10 0
FPR 85 71 86 74 / 10 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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