505
FXUS62 KMLB 142354
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
754 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
- REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THROUGH FRIDAY, AND THEN SHOWER AND STORM
CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND BY THIS WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...AS ONE FRONT SOUTH OF THE AREA CONTINUES TO MOVE
INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS ANOTHER WEAK FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH. HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY FADE AS IT
SHIFTS INTO NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS EVENING. NO RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT, BUT MAY SEE STRAY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A STORM EITHER DEVELOP OR DRIFT INTO OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND
SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST REGION THROUGH THIS EVENING (CHANCE OF RAIN
20%). OTHERWISE, IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
LOWS FALLING INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, AND LOW TO MID 70S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST, SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE INTO FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE OUT OF THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AND INCREASE UP TO 10-15 MPH BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOISTURE INCREASES A TAD ACROSS THE LAKE
OKEECHOBEE REGION (PW VALUES UP TO 1.3-1.5") AND THIS MAY ALLOW A
FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR (WEST OF I-95 AND SOUTH OF ORLANDO) INTO THE AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES REMAIN ON THE LOW END, AROUND 20-30%. AS LOW
LEVEL ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT, ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE, MAINLY
ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. MAX TEMPS INCREASE JUST SLIGHTLY ON
FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 DEGREES INLAND. LOWS WILL BE A LITTLE MORE MILD INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST AND
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S WEST OF I-95.
SATURDAY-WEDNESDAY...(MODIFIED PRECIOUS DISCUSSION) HIGH PRESSURE
WILL LINGER EAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING NEAR TO
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY, THIS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH WINDS INCREASING EACH DAY TO 10-15 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON, AND BECOMING BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST AS
SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS
WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY, WITH A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50
PERCENT) CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST EARLY
IN THE DAY AND SHIFTING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.
SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S, AND LOW 90S POSSIBLE WELL
INLAND EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
TONIGHT-FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO TOMORROW. N/NE WINDS AROUND 5-10 KNOTS
BECOME MORE VARIABLE INTO TONIGHT, AND THEN WILL PREDOMINATELY BE
OUT OF THE E/NE FRIDAY, INCREASING UP TO 10-15 KNOTS. SEAS 2-4 FEET
TONIGHT FALL TO 2-3 FEET TOMORROW. IT WILL BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS, BUT COULD SEE A STRAY SHOWER/STORM MOVE INTO THE
TREASURE COAST WATERS TONIGHT (CHANCE OF RAIN 20% OR LESS).
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST
ATLANTIC REMAINS NEAR TO NORTH OF THE AREA, MAINTAINING E/SE WINDS
ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY RANGE AROUND 10-15
KNOTS, BUT MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KNOTS AT TIMES MAINLY
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOSTLY RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET THROUGH THE PERIOD, BUT MAY INCREASE UP
TO 3-5 FEET EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE LEADING TO A RETURN OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL ECFL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. TEMPO WIND SHIFT FROM THE EAST AT MCO BTWN 00Z-02Z BEHIND
THE SEA BREEZE, THEN WINDS BCMG LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. ON FRI,
LIGHT NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND TO START VEERING EAST 8-13 KNOTS
BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE, GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS VRB-SUA. ISOLATED
SHRA/TSRA FRI AFTN AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND EARLY EVE WEST OF
MCO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 234 PM EDT THU MAY 14 2026
REMAINING MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH LATE WEEK, WITH LOW END
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES (20-30%) NEAR THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES THEN RISE INTO THE
WEEKEND AS MOISTURE INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, UP TO 20-40% SATURDAY
AND 30-50 PERCENT SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME ONSHORE INTO FRIDAY OUT OF
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND REMAIN ONSHORE OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WIND SPEEDS INCREASE BEHIND THE INLAND MOVING
SEA BREEZE EACH DAY, WITH SPEEDS UP TO 10-15 MPH FRIDAY AND BECOMING
BREEZY UP TO 15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. SENSITIVE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WELL INLAND
ON FRIDAY, AS AFTERNOON MIN RH VALUES FALL INTO THE 30S WEST OF
ORLANDO. HOWEVER, AS ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS AND MOISTURE INCREASES
INTO THE WEEKEND, MIN RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
CRITICAL LEVELS. DISPERSION VALUES WILL RANGE FROM GOOD TO VERY GOOD
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 67 86 71 86 / 0 0 0 10
MCO 68 89 71 88 / 0 10 0 20
MLB 72 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 20
VRB 72 86 75 86 / 10 10 20 20
LEE 66 89 71 90 / 0 0 0 20
SFB 66 90 70 89 / 0 10 0 10
ORL 68 90 71 89 / 0 10 10 20
FPR 71 86 74 85 / 10 10 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...KELLY
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