775
FXUS62 KMLB 151748
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
148 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- REMAINING MOSTLY DRY TODAY, WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES GRADUALLY RISE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- HIGHS WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, WITH LOW 90S POSSIBLE
WELL INLAND BY THIS WEEKEND.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY.
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... A SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
THIS MORNING BEFORE WASHING OUT BY THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALLY, DRIER
AIR WILL FILTER ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH FORECAST PW VALUES
DROPPING TO 0.6-0.8" ACROSS THE NORTH, AND 1.0-1.2" ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WHILE MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY, THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM
(20-30 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS INTO THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US TODAY, TURNING THE LOCAL
WINDS ONSHORE. WIND SPEEDS WILL ENHANCE IN THE AFTERNOON TO 10-15
MPH BEHIND THE INLAND-MOVING SEA BREEZE. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 80S, WITH LOW 90S FORECAST ACROSS THE FAR INTERIOR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE SLIGHTLY WARMER TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS
ONSHORE WINDS INCREASE TEMPERATURES TO THE UPPER 60S TO MID 70S.
AT THE BEACHES, THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ONCE AGAIN AT
ALL AREA BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
SATURDAY-THURSDAY... HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT NORTH AND EAST, WITH ITS AXIS REMAINING
OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. LOCALLY, THIS WILL MAINTAIN ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THE PERIOD,
WITH WINDS BECOMING ENHANCED TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
FORMATION OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE IS FORECAST THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN
THE ONSHORE FLOW. THIS WILL RAISE RAIN CHANCES SLIGHTLY, WITH A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN, FOCUSED ALONG THE COAST
EARLY IN THE DAY AND TRANSLATING INLAND WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE. SEASONABLE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 80S, WITH LOW 90S WELL
INLAND WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TODAY-TUESDAY... A SURFACE FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE AND CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
DAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BECOME ONSHORE
(E/SE) AT 10-15 KT, AND MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 15-20 KT AT TIMES
OFFSHORE MAINLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS EACH DAY.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RANGE FROM 2-4 FEET THROUGH MONDAY. SEAS
BRIEFLY BUILDING TO 3-5FT MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BACK TO 2-
4FT ON TUESDAY.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY, WITH DAILY ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING RETURNING THIS WEEKEND AND
CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
LOW LEVEL NE-E FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SE TONIGHT INTO SAT. DRY AIR
IN THE MID LEVELS WILL LIMIT CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SOME CHANCES WELL INLAND FROM THE KFPR-KSUA CORRIDOR NEAR LAKE
OKEECHOBEEE. FOR SAT, THE VEERING FLOW WILL BRING A SLIGHT UPTICK
IN MOISTURE LEVELS, WITH LOW CHCS (20%) FOR A FEW ATLC SHOWERS TO
MOVE ONSHORE IN THE MORNING, MAINLY SOUTH OF KMLB WITH LOW AFTN
SHRA/TSRA CHANCES FOR THE WELL INTERIOR SECTIONS INCLUDING KLEE BY
LATE SAT AFTN. BREEZY ESE-SE WINDS DEVELOPING SAT ARE EXPECTED
WITH GUSTS TO 20-23 KNOTS ALONG THE ATLC COAST FROM KMLB-KSUA.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 252 AM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FIRE SENSITIVE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TODAY AS MIN RH VALUES FALL
TO 30-35 PERCENT ACROSS LAKE COUNTY, AND AND 35-45 PERCENT ACROSS
THE REST OF THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. E/SE WINDS TODAY WILL
INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON (WITH THE STRONGER OF THE
WINDS OCCURRING CLOSER TO THE COAST) WITH THE INLAND-MOVING EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AROUND THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION AND UP
TO CENTRAL OSCEOLA COUNTY. LIGHTNING STRIKES POSE A RISK FOR NEW
FIRE STARTS. MIN RH VALUES RECOVER TO 45-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ON SATURDAY AS MOISTURE INCREASES OVER THE AREA IN THE
ONSHORE FLOW.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 73 87 73 86 / 10 10 10 20
MCO 72 89 72 89 / 10 20 10 50
MLB 77 86 76 85 / 10 10 10 30
VRB 76 86 75 86 / 10 20 20 30
LEE 72 90 73 90 / 10 30 30 50
SFB 71 89 72 89 / 10 10 10 40
ORL 72 89 73 89 / 10 20 10 50
FPR 75 86 74 86 / 10 20 20 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...VOLKMER
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