007
FXUS62 KMLB 160600
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
200 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
- RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND,
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH OF EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNDAY.
- PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP THE COAST NEAR NORMAL WARM,
BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEAT EXPECTED INLAND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
REST OF TODAY-TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND FLORIDA BEHIND THIS MORNING'S WEAK, DRY FRONT WHICH IS WASHING
OUT OVER CENTRAL TO SOUTH FLORIDA. PWATS HAVE DROPPED TO 1" OR
LESS FROM ORLANDO TO TITUSVILLE NORTH, CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS.
WHILE PWATS ARE STILL A DECENT 1.2-1.3" FROM THE TREASURE COAST TO
OKEECHOBEE, VERY DRY MID-LEVELS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT OBSTACLE TO
DEEP CONVECTION, LIMITING RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES TO
20-30% ACROSS THE SOUTH, AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARIES FOR
INITIATION. STORMS THAT MANAGE TO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS, OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED AND PUSHED
INLAND OF I-95, SHIFTING LIGHT WINDS ONSHORE AT 10-15 MPH, AND
STARTING A PERSISTENT PERIOD OF EASTERLY FLOW AS THE SOUTHERN
FLANK OF THE SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER FLORIDA. ABOVE NORMAL HEAT
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S, THOUGH UP NORTH THE DRIER
AIR WILL ALLEVIATE THE IMPACT SOME, AND THE COAST WILL SEE RELIEF
AFTER THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
U80S-M90S, HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH, AND GENERALLY MINOR HEATRISK
IMPACTS.
THE WEEKEND...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OFFSHORE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, REMAINING IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS OVER
THE SOUTHEAST SEABOARD. ONSHORE FLOW AROUND THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF
THE HIGH OVER FLORIDA WILL TRANSPORT MOISTURE FROM THE TROPICS,
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS FLOW PATTERN
FAVORS A SEA BREEZE COLLISION AND HIGHEST CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING
STORMS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA LATER IN THE EVENING,
WHILE OVER HERE ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP ON A DIFFUSE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS THE LATE MORNING, THEN PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOME ACTIVITY FROM THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OR SUBSEQUENT BOUNDARIES COULD BLOW BACK TOWARDS ECFL LATE IN THE
EVENING. VERY DRY AIR IN THE MID-LEVELS PERSISTS INTO SATURDAY AND
CONTINUE TO BE A HURDLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION, LIMITING RAIN CHANCES
TO 20-30% FROM THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND INTERIOR, THEN CHANCES
INCREASE TO 30-60% ACROSS ECFL SUNDAY (HIGHEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR) AS THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES MORE FAVORABLE. DRY MID-
LEVELS COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS OF LIGHTNING STORMS THAT MANAGE TO
DEVELOP, PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 40 MPH. AMPLE
INSTABILITY (MUCAPE UPWARDS OF 2,000 J/KG) AND MODERATELY COOL
MID-LEVELS (T500 AROUND -9C) COULD SUPPORT SMALL HAIL. AND AS
ALWAYS, OCCASIONAL TO FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT CONTINUES INLAND WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE U80S-L90S,
PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE L-M90S, AND MINOR TO MODERATE
HEATRISK. NEAR NORMAL WARM ALONG THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THANKS TO
THE ONSHORE FLOW, WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U80S, PEAK HEAT INDICES IN
THE U80S-L90S, AND MAINLY MINOR HEATRISK. ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH,
POSSIBLY UP TO 15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS.
NEXT WEEK...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
WEST ATLANTIC WILL MEANDER NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT, BUT REMAIN
RELATIVELY STATIONARY AND IN CONTROL OF LOCAL CONDITIONS THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL STAY TO OUR NORTH AND ONSHORE
FLOW IS FORECAST PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, CONTINUING
THE PATTERN OF SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE LATE
MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON ON THE INLAND MOVING SEA BREEZE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE IS A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF
DISAGREEMENT FROM THE MODELS OVER MOISTURE BY TUESDAY, WITH THE
GFS CONTINUING TO STREAM HIGHER MOISTURE ACROSS THE PENINSULA,
WHILE THE ECM PULLS SLUGS OF DRIER AIR SOUTH IN RESPONSE TO A
SLIGHTLY STRONGER DISTURBANCE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS ON THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH. THESE DIFFERENCES ARE REFLECTED IN THE
ENSEMBLES, SO NO HELP THERE. ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES (30-60%)
CONTINUE MONDAY, THEN FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, NBM CHANCES END
UP BEING A COMPROMISE OF 20-40%, BUT COULD SEE THEM GO UP IF THE
FORECAST TRENDS TOWARDS THE GFS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE
TO 10-15 MPH IN THE AFTERNOONS THROUGH MID-WEEK. SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT INLAND, WHILE THE COAST REMAINS CLOSER TO NORMAL WARM,
WILL ALSO CONTINUE. MODEL SOLUTIONS FURTHER DIVERGE THURSDAY JUST
AS A FRONT APPROACHES FLORIDA, AND DISAGREE WHETHER THE FRONT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA OR DROPS SOUTH. RAIN CHANCES ARE LIKELY
TO CONTINUE, BUT HOW HIGH AND STORMY IS UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME. THE
SAME GOES FOR HOW HOT THE LATE WEEK WILL BE.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
TODAY-TUESDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THIS MORNING'S WEAK, DRY FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO WASH OUT WHILE DROPPING TOWARDS SOUTH FLORIDA, AS
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE DEEP SOUTH BUILDS OVER FLORIDA BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE HIGH THEN SHIFTS EAST INTO THE NEARBY WESTERN ATLANTIC
WATERS, WHERE IT WILL SETTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, REMAINING IN CONTROL OF CONDITIONS ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE MEANDERING NORTH AND SOUTH A BIT. ONSHORE FLOW 5-15
KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD, PICKING UP TO 15-20 KTS AT
TIMES IN THE EVENINGS/OVERNIGHTS FROM SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION
ENHANCEMENT. SEAS MAINLY 2-4 FT, BRIEFLY BUILDING UP TO 5 FT IN
THE GULF STREAM LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS (CHANCES 20% OR LESS) OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS
TODAY AND SATURDAY, BECOMING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (CHANCES
20-40%) SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE FROM THE TREASURE
COAST THROUGH AROUND 14Z, WITH VCSH INCLUDED. THEN, MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS PREVAIL, WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR KLEE IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS THERE, WITH ANY ACTIVITY THEN
DIMINISHING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. SE WINDS PREVAIL, BECOMING
BREEZY, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS, BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE, ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE COAST.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 204 PM EDT FRI MAY 15 2026
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS BECOME LESS SENSITIVE AS MOISTURE INCREASES
IN ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE SOUTHEAST
SEABOARD. MIN RHS INCREASE TO 40-70% SATURDAY, LOWEST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AND GENERALLY 50% OR HIGHER SUNDAY ONWARD (VALUES COULD
DIP TO 45% IN PORTIONS OF LAKE, OSCEOLA, AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES
SATURDAY). EASTERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, UP TO 15-20 MPH
ALONG THE COAST BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE IN THE AFTERNOONS. WHILE
MIN RHS WILL IMPROVE, CHANCES FOR LIGHTNING STORMS INCREASE, FROM
20-30% ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/INTERIOR SECTIONS SATURDAY, TO 30-60%
ACROSS ALL ECFL SUNDAY, LOWEST ALONG THE COAST AND HIGHEST INLAND.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEAT INLAND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
U80S-L90S, PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE L-M90S, AND MINOR TO
MODERATE HEATRISK. ONSHORE FLOW KEEPS THE COASTAL CORRIDOR NEAR
NORMAL WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE M-U80S, PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE
U80S-L90S, AND MAINLY MINOR HEATRISK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 87 74 / 10 0 20 10
MCO 90 73 88 72 / 20 10 40 10
MLB 86 77 86 77 / 10 10 30 10
VRB 87 76 86 77 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 91 73 90 72 / 50 30 50 20
SFB 91 73 90 72 / 20 0 30 10
ORL 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 40 10
FPR 86 75 86 75 / 10 10 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WISHARD
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