215
FXUS62 KMLB 161106
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
706 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TODAY AT ALL
CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES.
- RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE NORTHWARD THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY.
- PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST
NEAR NORMAL, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEAT EXPECTED INLAND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
THIS WEEKEND...FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST THIS MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF OF THE CAROLINA COAST PUSHES FURTHER
SEAWARD CONTINUING AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW ACROSS ECFL. THIS WILL
ALLOW A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP FAIRLY EARLY IN THE DAY AND
PUSH WELL INLAND WITH AN EVENTUAL COLLISION WITH ITS WEST COAST
COUNTERPART NEAR THE LAKE/SUMTER COUNTY BORDER LATE BOTH DAYS THIS
WEEKEND. STORM STEERING IS FAIRLY LIGHT AND OFTEN VARIABLE SO
THERE WILL BE NO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE COAST IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE RELATIVELY COOL AT -9C TO -10C. PWATS
ARE JUST MODEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PENINSULA WITH GREATER VALUES
ACROSS WCFL. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD-WDLY SCT (20-30%) CONVECTION
GENERALLY INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH SEA BREEZE PUSH INLAND, WITH
MOST LOCATIONS STAYING DRY, BUT HIGHEST POPS WILL BE WELL INTO THE
INTERIOR (40-50% LAKE COUNTY). PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS WILL BE
LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL
HAIL, AND DOWNPOURS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INLAND EACH
AFTERNOON IN THE U80S TO L90S WITH M80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE L-M90S NEARLY AREAWIDE WITH A
MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK. MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S TO M70S AND
POSSIBLY SOME U70S ACROSS BARRIER ISLANDS. ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA
BREEZE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH, UP TO
15-20 MPH ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER
GUSTS.
A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS, STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL
EXIST AT ALL CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES THIS WEEKEND. ENTERING THE
DANGEROUS SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST ENTER THE SURF,
ONLY DO SO AT A LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
MON-FRI...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND
WESTERN ATLC WILL KEEP AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH WED NIGHT, GRADUALLY SETTLING SOUTHWARD THU/FRI WITH
THE APPROACH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL LOSE STEAM AND BECOME
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE TO SURGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THRU LATE IN THE PERIOD.
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT GRADUALLY VEERING
A BIT MORE SERLY ON THU AS THE PGRAD WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY
10-15 MPH EACH DAY, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER IN ASSOCIATION WITH SEA
BREEZE PASSAGE. DIURNAL SHOWER AND STORMS FORECAST THRU THE
PERIOD. POP CHANCES 20-40% AND LOCALIZED 50% FOR SOME NEXT WEEK.
STORM STEERING REMAINS LIGHT AND GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST COAST
THRU AT LEAST THU. GREATEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION IN THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND MID-LATE AFTN AND
EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CONSISTENTLY WARM WITH A MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK EACH DAY. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND 90F TO L90S INTO THE
INTERIOR. PERSISTENT LOW TEMPS IN THE U60S TO M70S ACROSS ECFL.
PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE L-M90S, LOCALLY U90S; U90S TO AROUND 100F
AREAWIDE ON FRI.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
CURRENT-WED...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED TO THE NORTH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
THIS WILL PROVIDE FOR MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS AND A TIGHTER PGRAD THRU
TUE EVENING, SPEEDS 12-18 KTS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME, THEN WINDS
DIMINISH JUST A BIT INTO MID-WEEK. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH
DAY AND PUSH WELL INLAND, THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING PUSH-BACK OF
STORMS TO THE COAST. SEAS CONTINUE MAINLY 2-4 FT, PERHAPS BUILDING
UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES OFFSHORE LATE MON INTO TUE. ISOLD TO SCT
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES, HIGHEST OFFSHORE & SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
A FEW CONVERGENT SHOWERS PRODUCING VCSH ALONG THE SOUTHERN SPACE
AND TREASURE COASTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY AROUND 14Z.
OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY, WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION NEAR KLEE
LATER THIS AFTERNOON LENDING THE MOST CONFIDENCE TO ANY CONVECTION
TODAY. HAVE MAINTAINED VCTS FOR KLEE AFTER 22Z, THOUGH WILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR ANY TEMPOS.
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
INCREASE TO 10-15+ KTS ACROSS THE AREA BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE.
GUSTS 20-25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST.
WINDS SLACKEN NEAR SUNSET, BUT REMAIN ELEVATED AROUND 10 KTS THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 202 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE
AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. A DIFFUSE
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND SPREAD INLAND WITH EVENTUAL
COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE AND HIGHEST SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES WELL INLAND TO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOISTURE
VALUES INCREASE KEEPING MIN RH VALUES ABOVE CRITICAL. EAST-SOUTHEAST
WINDS EACH DAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, EXCEPT 15-20 MPH ALONG
THE SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH HERE.
GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
MONDAY.
WILL MONITOR THIS MORNING FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST. LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES TODAY 20-30%, GENERALLY INLAND FROM
THE COAST, EXCEPT 40-50% FOR WESTERN LAKE COUNTY - CLOSEST TO THE
LATE DAY/EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION. SHOWER/STORM CHANCES ON
SUNDAY RANGE FROM 20-30% ALONG THE COAST AND 30-54% THROUGH THE
INTERIOR. FOR MONDAY, 20-30% ALONG/NORTH OF I-4 AND GENERALLY 40-50%
SOUTHWARD.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES INLAND WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE U80S-L90S, AND M-U80S NEAR THE COAST THROUGH MONDAY. PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE L-M90S AREAWIDE, AND A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEATRISK.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 75 87 74 / 10 0 20 10
MCO 90 73 88 72 / 20 10 40 10
MLB 86 77 86 77 / 10 10 30 10
VRB 87 76 86 77 / 10 20 30 30
LEE 91 73 90 72 / 50 30 50 20
SFB 91 73 90 72 / 20 0 30 10
ORL 90 73 89 73 / 20 10 40 10
FPR 86 75 86 75 / 10 10 30 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WISHARD
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