181
FXUS62 KMLB 170002
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
802 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES, AND ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY
DISCOURAGED
- LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN WITH ONSHORE FLOW
CONTINUING THROUGH NEXT WEEK, FOCUSING THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
ACROSS THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON
- ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES CLIMBING INTO THE LOW 100S NEXT WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE INCREASES
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
REST OF TODAY-SUNDAY...FOLLOWING SOME MORNING SHOWERS ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST, CONDITIONS ARE REMAINING MOSTLY DRY THIS AFTERNOON.
ONE OR TWO QUICK SHOWERS WILL APPEAR ON RADAR FROM TIME TO TIME,
THEN DISSIPATE JUST AS QUICK. IT IS QUITE WARM OUT AS TEMPS CLIMB
INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF
CUMULUS STREAMING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA, AS
WELL A HINT OF A DIFFUSE EAST COAST BREEZE MOVING TO THE WEST. LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY IN THE EVENING, THE EAST AND WEST COAST
BREEZE ARE EXPECTED TO COLLIDE. CAMS SUGGEST A FEW LIGHTNING STORMS
COULD DEVELOP ALONG THIS COLLISION, PARTICULARLY IN FAR WESTERN
ORANGE/OSCEOLA AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. THIS FORECAST UPDATE
MAINTAINS A 20-30% CHANCE OF RAIN/STORMS OVER THE FAR INTERIOR,
ACCOUNTING FOR THIS POTENTIAL. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL STAY ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE, BUT SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY HAVE A 40-50% OF
GREATER THAN 0.25" (12Z HREF PROBABILITIES). A STRONG STORM CAPABLE
OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION, WITH 500MB TEMPS
AROUND -9C AND DCAPE ABOVE 1000 J/KG. MOST ACTIVITY WILL FADE AFTER
SUNSET WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY MIDNIGHT FOR ALL. LOWS
SETTLE INTO THE 70S, REMAINING IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.
SUNDAY IS LARGELY A REPEAT OF TODAY, THOUGH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A FASTER INLAND PUSH OF THE EAST COAST BREEZE. AS A RESULT, RAIN
CHANCES WERE LOWERED IN THIS UPDATE FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE FOCUS
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL AGAIN BE FOR FAR INTERIOR PORTIONS
OF OKEECHOBEE, OSCEOLA, ORANGE, AND LAKE COUNTIES. MOREOVER, A
NUMBER OF MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF QPF FROM LAKE COUNTY TO THE
WEST FL COAST. FOR MOST, IT WILL BE HOT AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES
AGAIN REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
AT THE BEACHES, A HIGH RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS LIKELY TO
CONTINUE. ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
MONDAY-FRIDAY...MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ACROSS THE
EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN U.S. ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE STAYS PARKED OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC. A FRONT IS FORECAST TO DRIFT TOWARD FLORIDA BUT STALL OUT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. MID TO LATE WEEK. MODEL TRENDS HAVE BEEN TO
KEEP THIS FRONT FARTHER NORTH THAN PREVIOUSLY ANALYZED, INDICATING
THAT OUR EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY WIND PATTERN AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE. DIURNALLY-DRIVEN CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN FOCUSED ALONG THE EAST COAST BREEZE AS IT DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INLAND. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW QUICKLY HIGHER PW
VALUES BUILD OVER THE PENINSULA LATE WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND, BUT THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS (FOR NOW) IS FOR RAIN CHANCES TO INCREASE AREAWIDE
NEXT WEEKEND. COINCIDING WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE WOULD ALSO
MEAN AN INCREASE IN MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES. VALUES COULD ECLIPSE THE
100-DEGREE MARK BEGINNING FRIDAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
NOW-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS,
DRIFTING FARTHER NORTH AND EAST THIS WEEK, WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE
EAST-SOUTHEAST BREEZE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. SLIGHTLY WEAKER
WINDS RETURN MID TO LATE WEEK. EACH AFTERNOON, THE EAST COAST BREEZE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND QUICKLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS THE FL
PENINSULA. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES CLIMB ON
MONDAY TO 30-50%+ SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET BUT LARGELY REMAIN
20-35% THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SEAS 2-4 FT, CLIMBING BRIEFLY TO 5 FT
MONDAY EVENING OFFSHORE.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 800 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ECFL TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
SE WIND FLOW WILL DECREASE THROUGH 04Z WITH LOSS OF SEA BREEZE
ENHANCEMENT. SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURRING NOW WEST OF LEE AND
CONVECTION ASSOCD WITH IT MAY DRIFT EAST SO WILL MAINTAIN VCTS AT
LEE THROUGH 04Z. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLD SHRA AT A COASTAL TERMINAL
(MLB-SUA) OVERNIGHT. ON SUNDAY, WINDS PICK BACK UP TO 10-15 KTS
ALONG THE COAST, GUSTING 20-24 KNOTS BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE,
REACHING INTERIOR TERMINALS (MCO) IN THE AFTERNOON. FOCUS OF
TSRA/SHRA CHANCES SUN AFTN/EVE REMAIN WEST OF KMCO.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 225 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 2026
AN ONSHORE WIND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS, GENERALLY
10-15 MPH (UP TO 20 MPH AT THE COAST). SOME GUSTS TO 25 MPH CANNOT
BE RULED OUT, PARTICULARLY AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. ISOLATED ONSHORE-
MOVING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EACH MORNING BEFORE THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING STORMS
MAY OCCUR (20 TO 30 PERCENT CHANCE) AS THE EAST AND WEST COAST
BREEZES COLLIDE OVER THE INTERIOR. ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD LEAD
TO NEW FIRE STARTS. OTHERWISE, MANY LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY WITH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 80S (COAST) TO THE LOW
90S (INTERIOR).
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 75 86 72 87 / 0 10 0 10
MCO 73 90 71 89 / 10 20 0 20
MLB 77 85 77 86 / 10 10 0 30
VRB 75 85 76 87 / 10 10 10 40
LEE 74 90 72 90 / 30 30 10 10
SFB 73 90 71 89 / 0 20 0 10
ORL 73 91 72 90 / 10 20 0 20
FPR 75 86 75 86 / 10 10 10 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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