194
FXUS62 KMLB 170614
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
214 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
- HIGH RISK FOR LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS AT ALL CENTRAL
FLORIDA ATLANTIC BEACHES. ENTERING THE DANGEROUS SURF IS
STRONGLY DISCOURAGED.
- PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES AT THE COAST
NEAR NORMAL, BUT SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL HEAT EXPECTED INLAND
THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES EACH AFTERNOON
WILL CLIMB THRU THE 90S TO AROUND 100F BY FRIDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED (20-40%) SHOWER/LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...ANOTHER MORNING WITH CONVERGENT (ISOLD-WDLY SCT)
SHOWERS OFF OF THE TREASURE COAST SPREADING INLAND (TOWARD NW).
DON'T BE SURPRISED IF SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY SLIDES NORTH INTO
PORTIONS OF BREVARD, EASTERN OSCEOLA AND ORANGE/SEMINOLE COUNTIES
THRU SUNRISE. MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, BUT A FEW COULD
BRIEFLY SEE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THE
GRIDS/ZONES ACCORDINGLY.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST
WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR AN ONSHORE WIND FLOW ACROSS ECFL. THIS WILL
ENABLE A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH WELL INLAND WITH AN
EVENTUAL COLLISION WITH THE WCSB ACROSS WCFL LATE TODAY. STORM
STEERING REMAINS FAIRLY LIGHT AND FOCUSED TOWARD THE WEST COAST SO
THERE WILL BE NO PUSH BACK TOWARD THE EAST COAST IN THE EVENING.
TEMPERATURES AT 500 MB ARE RELATIVELY COOL AT -9.5C TO -10.5C. PWATS
ARE JUST MODEST AT BEST ACROSS ECFL AND BECOME DRIER LATE IN THE DAY
WITH GREATER VALUES ACROSS WCFL. CONVECTION CHANCES (OUTSIDE OF
EARLY THIS MORNING) 20-40PCT WELL INLAND THRU LATE DAY, WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REMAINING DRY. PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS WITH ANY STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF DOWNPOURS.
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MAX TEMPERATURES CONTINUE INLAND IN THE U80S
TO L90S WITH M80S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES WILL BE IN THE L-M90S NEARLY AREAWIDE WITH A MINOR TO
MODERATE HEATRISK. MIN TEMPS IN THE U60S TO M70S AND POSSIBLY SOME
U70S ACROSS BARRIER ISLANDS. ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ONSHORE WINDS TO 10-15 MPH, UP TO 15-20 MPH
ALONG THE COAST IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH FREQUENT HIGHER GUSTS.
A HIGH RISK FOR NUMEROUS, STRONG, LIFE-THREATENING RIP CURRENTS WILL
EXIST AT ALL CENTRAL FL ATLC BEACHES AGAIN TODAY. ENTERING THE
DANGEROUS SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED. IF YOU MUST ENTER THE SURF,
ONLY DO SO AT A LIFE-GUARDED BEACH AND NEVER SWIM ALONE!
MON-SAT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THU, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CELL GRADUALLY WEAKENING
AND PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE ATLC AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP A MAINLY ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT IN PLACE AND
ALLOW FOR DEEPER MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD LATE IN THE PERIOD.
WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 10-15 MPH EACH DAY, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SEA BREEZE PASSAGE. HIGHEST DIURNAL SHOWER AND
STORM COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WESTERN FL PENINSULA EACH
DAY/EVENING. POP CHANCES MAINLY 20-40% AND COULD INCREASE TO 40-60%
NEXT WEEKEND. STORM STEERING REMAINS LIGHT AND GENERALLY TOWARD
THE WEST COAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. GREATEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION IN THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG THE COAST AND MID-
LATE AFTN AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
CONSISTENTLY WARM WITH A MINOR TO MODERATE HEATRISK EACH DAY. HIGHS
IN THE M-U80S NEAR THE COAST AND AROUND 90F TO L90S INTO THE
INTERIOR. PERSISTENT LOW TEMPS IN THE U60S TO M70S ACROSS ECFL,
WITH A FEW U70S IN PLAY. PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE L-M90S, LOCALLY
U90S; U90S TO L100'S COME INTO PLAY AREAWIDE ON FRI/SAT.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
THRU THU...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS THRU THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF OF THE MID ATLC COAST WITH
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WELL NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS WITH A TIGHTER PGRAD IN
PLACE THRU TUE EVENING, SPEEDS 12-18 KTS FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME,
THEN WINDS DIMINISH JUST A BIT INTO MID-WEEK AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES. A SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND PUSH WELL INLAND,
THEREFORE NOT EXPECTING PUSH-BACK OF STORMS TO THE COAST. SEAS
CONTINUE MAINLY 2-4 FT, PERHAPS BUILDING UP TO 5 FT AT TIMES
OFFSHORE SURROUNDING BRIEF WIND SURGES. ISOLD TO SCT SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES, HIGHEST OFFSHORE & SOUTH OF THE CAPE OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 134 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
CONVERGENT SHOWERS ONCE AGAIN DRIFTING ONSHORE ALONG THE TREASURE
COAST OVERNIGHT, WITH VCSH IN PLACE THROUGH 14Z. SE WINDS ALSO
REMAIN ELEVATED NEAR 9-12 KTS OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COAST SOUTH OF
THE CAPE. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KTS THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS, WITH GUSTS 20-25 KTS SPREADING INLAND WITH THE SEA BREEZE
INTO THE AFTERNOON. MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM THE COASTAL SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, EXPECT TO SEE A SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE
VICINITY OF KLEE AGAIN AFTER 21Z, WITH VCTS IN PLACE THERE INTO
THE EVENING HOURS.
FIRE WEATHER
ISSUED AT 213 AM EDT SUN MAY 17 2026
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT ACROSS THE AREA INTO
NEXT WEEK. A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH DAY AND SPREAD
WELL INLAND WITH EVENTUAL COLLISION WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
LATE AND HIGHEST SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES WILL BE FOUND
WELL INLAND TO ACROSS WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA. LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
THRU THE PERIOD TYPICALLY 20-40%. MOISTURE VALUES INCREASE KEEPING
MIN RH VALUES GENERALLY WELL ABOVE CRITICAL. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS
EACH DAY WILL INCREASE TO 10-15 MPH, EXCEPT 15-20 MPH ALONG THE
SPACE/TREASURE COASTS WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH ALMOST AREAWIDE.
GENERALLY GOOD TO VERY GOOD DISPERSION EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 88 73 87 75 / 10 0 10 10
MCO 90 71 89 73 / 10 0 30 0
MLB 86 77 86 77 / 0 0 30 20
VRB 87 76 86 76 / 0 10 40 30
LEE 91 71 90 72 / 30 0 10 0
SFB 91 71 89 73 / 10 0 10 10
ORL 90 72 89 73 / 10 0 30 10
FPR 86 75 86 76 / 10 10 40 30
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WISHARD
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