604
FXUS62 KMLB 011051
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
651 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
- BREEZY/GUSTY WEST WINDS TODAY WILL SUPPRESS THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. RAIN/LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY WITH A
RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS (LEVEL 1/5) CONTAINING DAMAGING
WINDS.
- A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES THIS WEEK; ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFEGUARD!
- THE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SHIFT LATE THIS WEEK AS A WEAK "COOL"
FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PENINSULA, BRINGING DRIER
AIR, LOWER TEMPERATURES, AND DETERIORATING BOATING CONDITIONS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
TODAY-TUE...WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST INCREASING WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS ECFL. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE
ECSB FROM DEVELOPING MOST EVERYWHERE, BUT PERHAPS THE TREASURE
COAST. EVEN THEN, IT MAY BE PINNED AT THE COAST. THE OFFSHORE FLOW
DECREASES INTO TUE WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SEA BREEZE MOVEMENT
INLAND, THOUGH IT WILL BE SLOW AND LIMITED. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH ON TUE ARRIVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL FL
LATE TUE NIGHT.
SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES 40-60%, HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH
LATER TODAY. ON TUE, A MARGINAL RISK FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WILL EXIST IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGHEST POPS THIS WEEK ON
TUE (60-70%+). STORM STEERING WILL BE OFFSHORE BOTH DAYS BRINGING
STORMS BACK TO THE COAST AND OUT ACROSS THE LOCAL COASTAL WATERS.
PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY TO
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS (TUE) 40-60 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
DURING THE EVENING WITH CLOUDS THINNING A BIT DURING OVERNIGHT
PERIODS.
VERY WARM AND HUMID EARLY THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S-L90S AND
PEAK HEAT INDICES AHEAD OF STORMS IN THE U90S-L100S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
MILD IN THE 70S.
WED-SUN...A WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA ON WED ON ITS WAY TO SOUTH FL INCREASING CLOUD-COVER
AND BRINGING BREEZY NE FLOW WITH LOWER TEMPERATURES BEHIND IT.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW IT SOUTHWARD INTO LATE WEEK WITH
DRIER AIR ACROSS ECFL THRU AT LEAST SAT. PRESENTLY, AN INVERTED
SURFACE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUSH ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND TOWARD
SOUTHEAST FL THIS WEEKEND INCREASING MOISTURE GRADUALLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. ALOFT, AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED ELONGATED TROUGH WILL PUSH THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SOUTHWARD WED/THU WHILE GRADUALLY ON A
WEAKENING TREND. MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH BEHIND IT AS A WEAKENING MID-LEVEL LOW RETROGRADES ACROSS THE
BAHAMAS & FL STRAITS THIS WEEKEND.
ONE MORE DAY OF HIGHER RAIN CHANCES (50-70%) ON WED, HIGHEST SOUTH
FROM ORLANDO, THEN A DECREASING RAIN THREAT INTO LATE WEEK - THOUGH
HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES (ISOLD-WDLY SCT) WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE
TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY. COOLER ON WED/THU WITH HIGHS
IN THE L-M80S, THEN MAINLY M80S ON FRI, WITH M-U80S RETURNING
AREAWIDE SAT/SUN. COOLER MINS AS WELL IN THE U60S TO L70S; EXCEPT
M60S POSSIBLE FOR NORMALLY COOLER LOCATIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
M70S AT THE COAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 125 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
GENERALLY AN OFFSHORE WIND COMPONENT THRU EARLY WEEK 10-15 KTS. A
WEAK "COOL" FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS ON WED, WITH GUSTY NE FLOW BEHIND IT DETERIORATING BOATING
CONDITIONS THRU THU AS SEAS BUILD, WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS AGAIN
THU NIGHT/FRI. THE NE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE ERLY AND
DECREASE 10-15 KNOTS THU-FRI. SEAS 2-5 FT THRU TUE, THEN BUILD
LATE OVERNIGHT TUE INTO WED, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BECOMING
NECESSARY TUE OVERNIGHT INTO THU. SEAS WILL PEAK 5-7 FT NEAR SHORE
AND 6-9 FT OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL FALL BELOW 6 FT OFFSHORE LATE THU
NIGHT/FRI WITH 4-5 FT NEAR SHORE.
OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES REMAIN FAIRLY
HIGH THRU EARLY WEEK WITH OVERALL PRECIP CHANCES DIMINISHING IN
COVERAGE (NORTH TO SOUTH) THU/FRI. SOME POTENTIALLY STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON/EVENING.
PRIMARY STORM THREATS WILL BE FREQUENT CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING,
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34 KTS, AND LOCALLY HIGHER SEAS. ACTIVITY
WILL DIMINISH LATE AT NIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL HELP DECREASE RAIN CHANCES FROM THU
ONWARD, THOUGH ISOLD-WDLY SCT DEVELOPMENT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN WATERS, WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 650 AM EDT MON JUN 1 2026
VFR THRU 15-16Z BEFORE TSRA/SHRA BEGINS TO DEVELOP. BREEZY WITH
WNW WINDS 10-15 KT, GUSTING 20-25 KT AT TIMES OUTSIDE OF TS. THE
ECSB (IF FORMING) WILL REMAIN NEAR THE COAST/JUST OFFSHORE. EARLIER
START TO SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN (AS EARLY AS 15-17Z), WITH
ACTIVITY DRIFTING ESE THRU 00-02Z. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN BRIEF
CIG/VIS IMPACTS AND 35+ KT WIND GUSTS INCLUDES NORTHERN TERMINALS
(LEE TO MCO TO TIX, NORTHWARD). ADDED TEMPOS FOR TIX AND SUA IN
THIS UPDATE, WHERE MODEL GUIDANCE IS MOST CONSISTENT IN TSRA. MORE
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS FORECAST FOR TREASURE COAST SITES BEFORE
LINGERING SHRA/TSRA DRIFT SOUTH AND DISSIPATE THRU 04Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 89 74 89 71 / 60 30 70 80
MCO 90 75 90 72 / 40 20 70 70
MLB 90 77 88 74 / 50 20 60 70
VRB 91 75 88 73 / 50 20 60 70
LEE 90 76 91 72 / 50 20 70 80
SFB 91 75 92 72 / 60 20 70 80
ORL 90 76 90 73 / 50 20 70 70
FPR 90 75 88 73 / 50 10 60 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...SCHAPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page