581
FXUS62 KMLB 031752
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
152 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY; HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
TODAY TO LAST INTO THURSDAY
- RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SOUTH WITH TODAY'S FRONT, ACCOMPANIED BY
DRIER AND COOLER AIR THROUGH THURSDAY, BEFORE ANOTHER WARMING
TREND INTO THE WEEKEND
- MORE MOISTURE LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASES RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY ONWARD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...A FRONT IS VERY SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH THIS MORNING,
CURRENTLY STRETCHING FROM LEESBURG ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO TO
CAPE CANAVERAL. WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT ARE STARTING TO PICK
UP ALONG THE VOLUSIA COAST AND WILL SPREAD SOUTH THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THE OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING STORM ARE FOCUSED
ON VOLUSIA, SEMINOLE, AND NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES AS OF 2 AM.
WHERE RAIN IS FALLING, RAIN RATES ARE 1-2"+ PER HOUR AT TIMES,
THOUGH A BULK OF ACTIVITY SO FAR HAS REMAINED OFFSHORE.
SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE FRONT WILL START TO PICK UP
STEAM AND MOVE A BIT QUICKER SOUTH, STARTING AROUND SUNRISE. THIS
IS TOGETHER WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT BEGINS EXITING THE
CAROLINA COAST AND MOVING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY. A NOTABLE UPTICK
IN NORTHEAST WINDS IS FORECAST THROUGH THE MORNING, CONTINUING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 15-20 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS 20-25
MPH ARE LIKELY, AND A 40-60% CHANCE OF 25+ MPH GUSTS EXISTS FROM
ORLANDO/CAPE CANAVERAL NORTHWARD (00Z HREF). EVEN HIGHER
PROBABILITIES APPEAR ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND NORTH BREVARD COASTS
THROUGH MIDDAY. WHILE THERE WILL BE A GOOD BIT OF CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE MORNING, MORE SUNSHINE SHOULD BREAK OUT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH EFFICIENT MID LEVEL DRYING. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 80S AREAWIDE. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL TRULY FEEL LIKE THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S AS HUMIDITY
BRIEFLY LOWERS.
A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES TODAY. ENTERING THE ROUGH, 4 TO 6-FOOT SURF IS HIGHLY
DISCOURAGED!
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT SINKS SOUTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT, THEN STALLS ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA (OR THE FLORIDA
STRAITS) FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. A SURFACE HIGH BECOMES
CENTERED OVER THE APPALACHIANS THURSDAY, DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TOWARD
THE VIRGINIA AND CAROLINA COASTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. WHILE
SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO HOW FAR SOUTH THE INFLUENCE OF THIS
HIGH WILL REACH, MUCH OF THE AREA WILL EXPERIENCE A LOT OF DRY
TIME THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SOUTH FLORIDA FRONT MAY WOBBLE A BIT
NORTH FROM TIME TO TIME, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. ENOUGH
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE ATLANTIC AND FAR SOUTHERN REACHES
(OKEECHOBEE, ST. LUCIE, MARTIN COUNTIES) OF OUR AREA THAT ISOLATED
ONSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. TEMPERATURES THURSDAY
ARE STILL FORECAST TO BE 5-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, EVEN WITH MORE
SUNSHINE EXPECTED. THEN, A WARMING TREND RESUMES FROM FRIDAY
ONWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. HIGHS WILL APPROACH
THE 90-DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE INTERIOR BY SATURDAY, WITH COASTAL
LOCATIONS A FEW DEGREES LESS BEHIND THE DAILY EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE.
THE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK, PERHAPS ON INTO THE WEEKEND. ALWAYS HEED THE ADVICE
OF LIFEGUARDS AND AVOID ENTERING THE SURF WHEN RED FLAGS ARE
FLYING!
SUNDAY-TUESDAY...AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO TREND WARMER,
MOISTURE BEGINS TO SURGE NORTHWARD SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK. RAIN
CHANCES (ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORM OR TWO) GROW
AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY TO 20-40%, FOCUSED MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CAPE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTHWARD NEXT WEEK AND BY
TUESDAY, SURFACE FLOW VEERS OUT OF THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. A
TRANSITION TO A WESTERLY WIND COMPONENT HELPS BUILD RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES TO 50-60% FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THAT WETTER PATTERN COULD
VERY WELL LAST FOR SEVERAL DAYS NEXT WEEK, IF CURRENT GUIDANCE
VERIFIES. THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO BE
MONDAY (UPPER 80S LOW 90S) BEFORE THOSE RAIN CHANCES INCREASE
MIDWEEK.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC TODAY AS WINDS FRESHEN BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. 20-25
KT SUSTAINED WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 30 KT ARE EXPECTED, HELPING
TO BUILD SEAS UP TO 7-10 FT OFFSHORE (5-7 FT NEARSHORE). SEAS WILL
REMAIN HAZARDOUS INTO THURSDAY BUT SLOWLY IMPROVE WEST OF THE GULF
STREAM. UP TO 7 FT SEAS LINGER IN THE GULF STREAM THURSDAY AS
ONSHORE, NORTHEAST WINDS FALL TO 10-15 KT. BOATING CONDITIONS
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS ONSHORE FLOW IS
ESTABLISHED BENEATH A SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTH. ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE (15-25% CHANCE), MAINLY FROM FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND, WITH A FOCUS TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH FL WITH BREEZY NE WINDS GUSTING
24-28 KNOTS. STILL SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS ALONG
WITH SOME SHRA SO HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO FOR VRB AND FPR THROUGH
20Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AT MCO/SFB/DAB. NE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AROUND 10 KNOTS. ON THU, WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN AT 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 20-24 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 83 71 84 / 10 0 0 0
MCO 67 84 68 86 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 73 83 74 85 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 72 83 72 85 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 66 85 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 67 85 68 88 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 68 85 69 87 / 10 0 0 0
FPR 71 82 71 84 / 0 0 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...SCHAPER
AVIATION...KELLY
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