121
FXUS62 KMLB 031858
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
258 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS EXISTS AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
BEACHES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY; HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS
TODAY TO LAST INTO THURSDAY
- DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH
LITTLE TO NO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH SATURDAY
- MOISTURE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH INCREASED RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES, ESPECIALLY TUESDAY ONWARD
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
CURRENTLY-THURSDAY... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A FEW LIGHT ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE TREASURE COAST AND OKEECHOBEE COUNTY MOVING
EAST-SOUTHEAST. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STRATOCUMULUS
CLOUD DECK MOVING SOUTHEAST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH CLOUDS
CLEARING OVER VOLUSIA COUNTY, AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF LAKE,
SEMINOLE, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW THE
"COOL" FRONT THAT MOVED ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA OVERNIGHT AND
INTO THIS MORNING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S. THERE IS A
WIDE RANGE IN DEW POINTS WITH THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S FROM
BREVARD AND OSCEOLA COUNTIES NORTHWARD AND THE MID 60S TO MID 70S
TO THE SOUTH. BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO
25-30MPH ARE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER
WIND SPEEDS FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-15MPH WITH GUSTS TO
20-25MPH ON THURSDAY. SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW
60S TO MID 70S FORECAST
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE (~1020-1026MB) IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 1.25-2.0" ON SUNDAY
WITH ONSHORE FLOW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED GENERALLY ONSHORE MOVING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO THE
AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY (MAINLY SOUTH OF VOLUSIA, NORTHERN BREVARD,
AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST WITH PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S FRIDAY MORNING ARE FORECAST.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... RAIN SHOWER AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE
TO START OFF THE WORKWEEK WITH AN MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT MOISTURE WILL
INCREASE (PWATS ~ 1.90-2.10") ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
THAT IS EXPECTED TO TRACK SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (40-70%) AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
MID 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE MID
90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 208 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
CURRENTLY-THURSDAY... HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS
IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE GRADUALLY DROPPING OFF
INTO THURSDAY EVENING. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 15-20KTS WITH GUSTS
TO 25KTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN INTO THURSDAY AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS. SEAS TO 4-7FT NEARSHORE AND 7-9FT OFFSHORE
(20-60NM), AS WELL AS OVER THE GULF STREAM ARE FORECAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AT 3-5FT NEARSHORE AND 5-7FT OFFSHORE, AS WELL AS OVER THE GULF
STREAM.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE (~1020-1026MB) IS EXPECTED TO BUILD
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE WEAKENING AND
MOVING EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY. MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER IS FORECAST BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES ON SUNDAY WITH
ISOLATED GENERALLY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS.
EAST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE FORECAST. SEAS OF
3-5FT WITH UP TO 6FT OVER THE OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS ARE
FORECAST ON FRIDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING TO 3-4FT ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 PM EDT WED JUN 3 2026
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO SOUTH FL WITH BREEZY NE WINDS GUSTING
24-28 KNOTS. STILL SOME MVFR CIGS ACROSS SOUTHERN TERMINALS ALONG
WITH SOME SHRA SO HAVE INSERTED A TEMPO FOR VRB AND FPR THROUGH
20Z. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS AT MCO/SFB/DAB. NE WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET AROUND 10 KNOTS. ON THU, WINDS WILL PICK UP
AGAIN AT 12-15 KNOTS GUSTING 20-24 KNOTS WITH VFR CONDS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 70 83 71 85 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 67 85 68 87 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 73 83 74 85 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 72 84 72 86 / 0 0 0 0
LEE 66 86 68 89 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 67 86 68 88 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 68 85 69 87 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 71 84 71 85 / 0 0 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ550-552.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ555-570-572-
575.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...KELLY
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