468
FXUS62 KMLB 042340
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
740 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY;
ENTERING THE SURF IS STRONGLY DISCOURAGED!
- POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS LINGER ACROSS THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC TODAY AND WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND
- MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES RETURN ON SUNDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
CURRENTLY-FRIDAY... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY WEATHER
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES OVER
THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY WATERS. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS
GENERALLY MOVING ONSHORE AND CIRRUS CLOUDS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE (~1025MB) OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN US TO THE NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW POINTS IN
THE 60S. WINDS ARE BREEZY FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST AT 10-15MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25MPH.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE (~1020-
1022MB) REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND BUILDS NEAR THE COAST.
EAST WINDS AT 10-15MPH GUSTS TO 20MPH ARE FORECAST WITH PARTLY
CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY... MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.
MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN AND SHIFT OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AS A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN US AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS (20-30%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST OVER THE TREASURE COAST, SOUTHERN OSCEOLA, AND
OKEECHOBEE COUNTIES WITH PWATS IN THE 1.25-1.60" RANGE OVER THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90
DEGREES ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER ON
MONDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN
GULF OF AMERICA AND FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ADDITIONALLY, A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. RAIN SHOWER CHANCES (20-60%) INCREASE ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH PWATS UP TO 1.8-2.2". EASTERLY FLOW AND A
WEAK WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FAVOR THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER
THE TREASURE COAST AND SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
ON MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON MONDAY WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RAIN CHANCES INCREASE.
EXPECT WARM LOWS IN THE 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 254 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
CURRENTLY-FRIDAY... POOR TO HAZARDOUS BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BUOY 41010 INDICATING
WAVE HEIGHTS TO 6-7 FEET. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OFFSHORE
WATERS (20-60NM) AND NEARSHORE TREASURE COAST WATERS IS EXPECTED TO
EXPIRE AT 8PM THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
IMPROVE INTO FRIDAY. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20-25KTS ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN TO 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS INTO
FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS.
SATURDAY-MONDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE NORTH OF FLORIDA OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED GENERALLY ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY, MAINLY
OVER THE SOUTHERN LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. EAST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE FORECAST TO VEER SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AT 8-12KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 14-20KTS. SEAS TO 2-4FT ARE FORECAST TO REDUCE TO 2-
3FT SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ENE WINDS
TAPERING OFF WITH SUNSET SETTLING TO 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. ON
FRI, E TO ENE WINDS PICK UP AGAIN AFTER 14Z AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS,
WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS. DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THOUGH
BRIEF, ISOLATED --SHRA CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 71 85 71 86 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 68 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 74 85 75 87 / 0 0 10 0
VRB 72 85 73 87 / 0 0 10 0
LEE 68 88 69 91 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 68 88 69 90 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 69 88 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 71 84 72 87 / 0 0 10 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...KELLY
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