001
FXUS62 KMLB 051033
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
633 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FORECAST FROM
MONDAY ONWARD.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED!
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR REACHING THE MID 90S LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED ACROSS THE EASTERN
US WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN PLACE, WITH SOME SLIGHT DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL ATTEMPT
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD TOWARDS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, BUT PREDOMINANT
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL HELP ADVECT SOME
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC TOWARDS THE PENINSULA, KEEPING PWATS
GENERALLY BETWEEN 0.9" TO 1.2". ONSHORE FLOW MAY LEAD TO SOME
LIGHT, ISOLATED SPRINKLES ALONG THE COAST, BUT OVERALL, CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN DRY ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. WIND SPEEDS OF 5 TO
10 MPH THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, ENHANCING
THE ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN SEASONABLE,
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE UPPER 80S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS OVERNIGHT FALL INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S.
DESPITE THE DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES,
CONDITIONS AT THE LOCAL BEACHES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN POOR TO
HAZARDOUS. A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND ROUGH SURF IS
ANTICIPATED AT ALL EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA BEACHES. ENTERING THE SURF
IS NOT ADVISED!
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...INTO THIS WEEKEND, THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO SLOWLY DRIFT OFFSHORE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH THE
RIDGE AXIS REMAINING NORTH OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ONSHORE FLOW
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AREAWIDE ON SATURDAY. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO
SHIFT SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE AND WEAKENS, ALLOWING A STALLED BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA TO LIFT SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
CAUSE A SURGE OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD, LEADING TO A SLIGHT INCREASE
IN RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE TREASURE COAST AND NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS, WITH POPS RANGING BETWEEN 15-20%.
AREAS NORTHWARD WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY.
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WILL FOLLOW A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND, WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY RANGING FROM THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
REACHING THE UPPER 80S T MID 90S ON SUNDAY. THE WARMEST
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FOCUSED ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOWS SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S REACH THE 70S AREAWIDE ON SUNDAY
NIGHT.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...SHORT-LIVED OMEGA BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOPS IN THE
MID-LEVELS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, KEEPING BROAD HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FOR THE START OF THE WORK
WEEK. THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WASHES OUT ON MONDAY, WITH THE PLUME
OF MOISTURE STILL FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
PENINSULA. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE ACROSS AREAS SOUTH OF THE
ORLANDO METRO AND CAPE CANAVERAL. BY TUESDAY, THE OMEGA BLOCK
BREAKS DOWN AND A LOBE OF MID-LEVEL ENERGY DRIFTS SOUTHWARD,
DRIVING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
ON TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL SLOW DOWN AND STALL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WITH SOME DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN GLOBAL
MODELS ON JUST HOW MUCH MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ROUTINE DIURNAL RAIN AND STORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE
FORECAST TUESDAY ONWARD, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE FLUCTUATIONS IN RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES DUE TO THE GLOBAL MODEL DISCREPANCIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ON MONDAY,
FALLING SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S TUESDAY ONWARD BEHIND
THE WEAK COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE EASTERN US WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS, WITH THE RIDGE
AXIS EXTENDING JUST NORTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THE HIGH IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS ON TUESDAY WITH
LITTLE FANFARE. PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK, WITH WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY RANGING
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AS A RESULT, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE, WITH SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET TODAY FALLING TO 2 TO
4 FEET SATURDAY ONWARD.
RAIN CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN LOW THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS
DRIER AIR REMAINS IN PLACE. HOWEVER, DUE TO THE ONSHORE FLOW, SOME
LIGHT, ISOLATED SPRINKLES AND SHOWERS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FROM
DEVELOPMENT AT TIMES, MOVING ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE STARTING MONDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE
AREA, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY FORECAST FROM TUESDAY
ONWARD.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 601 AM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. ERLY WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KTS, WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS. MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST THOUGH BRIEF, ISOLD -SHRA (ONSHORE-MOVING) CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. ONSHORE WINDS FALL TO LIGHT AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT,
BUT COULD STAY ELEVATED 5-10 KTS ALONG THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 84 71 86 71 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 87 69 89 70 / 0 0 0 0
MLB 85 75 86 75 / 0 0 0 0
VRB 85 73 86 75 / 0 0 10 0
LEE 88 69 91 71 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 88 69 90 69 / 0 0 0 0
ORL 88 70 90 71 / 0 0 0 0
FPR 84 72 85 73 / 0 10 10 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SEDLOCK
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