770
FXUS62 KMLB 051841
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
241 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
- DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
SUNDAY, WITH INCREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES FORECAST FROM
MONDAY ONWARD.
- A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST AT ALL EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA BEACHES TODAY; ENTERING THE OCEAN IS NOT ADVISED!
- A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL LEAD TO SOME SPOTS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR REACHING THE MID 90S LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK ON MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
CURRENTLY-SATURDAY... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EXCEPT FOR A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES OVER
THE NEARSHORE BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES MOVING ONSHORE.
GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULUS
CLOUDS MOVING WEST OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW
HIGH PRESSURE (~1022MB) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US AND SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH DEW
POINTS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70 DEGREES. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND ON SATURDAY; HOWEVER ISOLATED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS (20%) CANNOT BE RULED OUT (MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL) WITH ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AND PWATS IN THE 0.9-1.2"
RANGE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S TO MID 70S ARE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES.
SUNDAY-MONDAY... RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY (20-30%) AND TO START
OFF THE WORKWEEK (20-40%) AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US
WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A MAJOR
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN INTO A
LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO FLUCTUATE IN THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION TO BEGIN THE WEEK
DUE TO THE PLACEMENT OF THE LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. HOWEVER,
ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE AND A WEAK WEST COAST SEA BREEZE FAVORS THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA ON MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST INTO EACH AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
PARTLY CLOUDY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE
UPPER 90S TO AROUND 102 DEGREES ARE FORECAST ON MONDAY. THERE IS A
MAJOR HEATRISK FOR PORTIONS OF THE ORLANDO METRO, LAKE, AND
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTIES ON MONDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. A MAJOR
HEATRISK AFFECTS ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. A
MODERATE HEATRISK AFFECTS THOSE WHO ARE SENSITIVE TO HEAT WITHOUT
ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION. REMEMBER TO DRINK PLENTY OF WATER,
WEAR LIGHT CLOTHING, TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS, AND SHIFT OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES AWAY FROM 10AM TO 4PM.
TUESDAY-THURSDAY... GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE THAT RAIN AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AND INTO MIDWEEK WITH PWATS
UP TO 1.2-2.0" ON TUESDAY (MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE CANAVERAL.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE DETERMINISTIC GFS,
DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, GFS ENSEMBLES, ECMWF ENSEMBLES, AND GOOGLE
DEEPMIND ALL INDICATE THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF AMERICA THURSDAY AND THEREAFTER
WHICH WILL HAVE A LARGE INFLUENCE ON HOW HIGH THE RAIN SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM COVERAGE WILL BE OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A MORE WESTERLY TRACK
WOULD RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S
ARE FORECAST WITH LOWS IN THE 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 240 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
CURRENTLY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE (~1016-1020MB) OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
US. MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS FORECAST, HOWEVER ISOLATED ONSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS (20%) CANNOT BE RULED OUT, MAINLY SOUTH OF CAPE
CANAVERAL. EAST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE
EXPECTED. SEAS OF 3-5FT ARE EXPECTED TO REDUCE TO 2-4FT INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
SUNDAY-TUESDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE, A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN INTO A LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ISOLATED GENERALLY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS
(20%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY
BEFORE RAIN CHANCES (20-50%) INCREASE OVER ALL OF THE WATERS ON
TUESDAY. EAST WINDS AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS ARE FORECAST
EACH DAY. SEAS TO 2-4FT ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO REDUCE TO 1-3FT
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT FRI JUN 5 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS NORTH OF THE REGION AND
OVERALL DRY AIRMASS WILL KEEP EASTERLY WINDS IN PLACE AND LEAD TO
A MOSTLY DRY FORECAST. HOWEVER, INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY
LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE, MAINLY ALONG THE COAST. PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CIGS REMAIN
LOW THOUGH CURRENTLY, LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.
EASTERLY WINDS 10-12 KNOTS DIMINISH TO 5-8 KNOTS INTO TONIGHT AND
THEN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN INTO LATE SATURDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS 10-13 KNOTS AND GUSTS UP TO 18-20 KNOTS POSSIBLE ALONG
THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 66 86 67 87 / 0 0 0 0
MCO 67 89 68 92 / 10 10 0 0
MLB 75 86 76 88 / 20 10 10 20
VRB 73 86 75 88 / 20 20 10 20
LEE 69 90 69 93 / 0 0 0 0
SFB 67 89 68 92 / 10 0 0 0
ORL 69 90 69 93 / 10 10 0 0
FPR 72 85 74 87 / 20 20 20 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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