496
FXUS62 KMLB 220532
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
132 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- DRIER AIR KNOCKS AFTERNOON RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES
BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES CREEP BACK UP GOING INTO THE WORK WEEK, ESPECIALLY
MONDAY & TUESDAY WHEN HIGHS REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S, BRINGING
BACK WIDESPREAD HEATRISK IMPACTS AND HEAT INDICES UP TO AROUND
105.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE AREA. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY TODAY HAS ALLOWED AN
EARLIER DEVELOPMENT OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, ALREADY MOVING IN
VICINITY OF I-95 EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS HAVE INITIATED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA, PRIMARILY NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4. EXPECT
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS
EASTWARD MOVING CONVECTION CONVERGES WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEA
BREEZE NEAR OR WEST OF ORLANDO AND SOUTHWARD THROUGH LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN GRADUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS. SURFACE INSTABILITY EXCEEDING 3,000 J/KG WILL ALLOW
FOR QUICK UPDRAFTS AND TALL STORMS, ESPECIALLY ALONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS. UPDRAFTS MIXING A DRY LAYER ABOVE 700MB WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS OF 40-50 MPH. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER STORMS.
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT ONCE ACTIVITY PUSHES
OFFSHORE. LOOKING INTO THE LATE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS,
HREF GUIDANCE MAY SUGGEST LOW PROBABILITIES (20-30%) FOR FOG
DEVELOPMENT. MUST ACKNOWLEDGE THE PRESENCE OF A MODELED SURFACE
INVERSION WITHIN RAP AND GFS SOUNDING PROFILES. HOWEVER, GIVEN
SEASONAL TRENDS IN FOG, SHALLOW GROUND FOG SEAMS MOST REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS THROUGH THE EVENING.
OVERNIGHT LOWS REMAIN MUGGY, MOSTLY IN THE MID 70S.
MONDAY-TUESDAY... A MID LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDES ACROSS THE
EASTERN U.S. ACCOMPANIED BY MULTIPLE WAVES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY. A
MID LEVEL RIDGE HOLDS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH ITS AXIS OVER SOUTH
FLORIDA. THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE LARGER "TROUGHY" PATTERN NORTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA, ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL PULSES OF VORTICITY MAY STILL
PASS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, A LOOSE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MAINTAIN A WEAK RIDGE AXIS NEAR OR OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. WEAK WEST-
SOUTHWEST FLOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO FAVOR A WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
REGIME WITH A SLOWER MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. DRIER AIR
SHOULD KEEP LOWER RAIN CHANCES THAN WHAT HAS BEEN SEEN RECENTLY,
AND THE BEST CHANCES SHOULD RESIDE NEAR, EAST, AND SOUTH OF
ORLANDO (~30%) EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS MAY ALSO HINT AT
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE IN VICINITY OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE ON
TUESDAY (~40-50%). ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST, MOSTLY
RANGING THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE
INTERIOR. ENSEMBLE PROBABILITIES MAY EVEN SUGGEST A MODERATE
CHANCE (40-60%) FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 90S (>=97F)
NEAR, NORTH, AND WEST OF I-4, ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME,
DRIER AIR LOOKS TO KEEP PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES BELOW HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS EXPECTED EACH DAY, AND THIS LEVEL OF HEAT WILL
IMPACT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND HYDRATION.
WEDNESDAY-SATURDAY... A TROUGHING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AND A COLD FRONT SAGS INTO PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST MIDWEEK.
DESPITE SOME WEAKENING OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN ESTABLISHED
LOCALLY, KEEPING THE FRONT NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA. BUILDING
MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE FRONT SHOULD INCREASE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. A MORE SUMMERLIKE PATTERN OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS (~40-50%) IS FORECAST AREAWIDE
EACH DAY. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION, HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST. HIGHS CONTINUE TO MOSTLY RANGE THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
COAST AND MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. A WIDESPREAD MODERATE
HEATRISK IS FORECAST WITH MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS BECOMING FOCUSED
ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND PORTIONS OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 229 PM EDT SUN JUN 21 2026
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE OUTSIDE OF LIGHTNING STORMS.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS AND WILL
CONTINUE TO PROMOTE LIGHT WEST-SOUTHWINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS. A DAILY
SEA BREEZE PATTERN SHOULD SHIFT WINDS EAST-SOUTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS, INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS AT TIMES. SEAS OF 1-
2 FT SHOULD PERSIST. SCATTERED COVERAGE OF OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS
CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH LOWERING RAIN CHANCES
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 132 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
CONDITIONS WILL MOSTLY REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS MORNING. HREF
GUIDANCE INDICATING SOME LOW PROBABILITIES (AT OR BELOW 30%) FOR
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT TOWARD DAYBREAK. HOWEVER, NOT MUCH
AGREEMENT OVERALL IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN WILL LEAD TO LOWER SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON (~20-30%), WITH GREATEST POTENTIAL
FOR CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISION FOCUSED ACROSS THE
INTERIOR LATER IN THE DAY. HAVE STILL KEPT VCTS FOR ALL TERMINALS
(MOSTLY BETWEEN 19-01Z), BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY TEMPO
GROUPS AT THIS TIME.
LIGHTER S/SW WINDS AROUND 5-7 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E/SE AROUND 8-10 KNOTS AT
THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 10
MCO 96 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
MLB 92 77 92 76 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 92 76 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 95 76 95 76 / 20 0 10 10
SFB 96 76 96 76 / 30 20 20 10
ORL 95 77 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
FPR 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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