512
FXUS62 KMLB 221123
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
723 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- SUMMER ARRIVES RIGHT ON TIME AND A HOT WEEK IS ON TAP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, PUSHING TOWARDS THE
UPPER 90S INLAND, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS AND MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS.
- DRY AIR DROPS AFTERNOON RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES BELOW
NORMAL (20-40%) TODAY AND TUESDAY, THEN CHANCES PICK BACK UP THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
THIS MORNING...ATYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CONDITIONS ARE
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF MORNING FOG. RAP ANALYSIS
CONTINUES TO SHOW A STRONG SURFACE INVERSION OVER THE INTERIOR
TOWARDS DAYBREAK, HREF PROBABILITIES ARE STILL 10-30% INLAND FROM
NEAR YEEHAW JUNCTION NORTH, AND MANY LOCATIONS IN THIS AREA HAVE
RECEIVED 2-5" OF RAINFALL OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS. GIVEN IT'S BEEN
A WHILE SINCE WE'VE HAD FOG, ESPECIALLY ON A MONDAY MORNING
COMMUTE, CHANCES ARE GOOD ENOUGH TO INCLUDE PATCHY FOG IN THE
MORNING FORECAST.
TODAY-TONIGHT...TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN US GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST,
BUT IS EXPECTED TO STAY NORTH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WHERE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, THE ATLANTIC HIGH
CONTINUES TO WEAKLY EXTEND TO FLORIDA WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER
SOUTH FLORIDA AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES WELL NORTH, KEEPING
US IN AN ONSHORE (SW-WSW) FLOW REGIME. THE FRONT STALLED WELL
NORTH ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE HAVE LIFTED AWAY, ALLOWING DRIER
AIR TO FILTER IN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW-LEVELS. REDUCED CLOUD
CLOVER BRINGS MORE HEATING THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, AND HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY IN THE L-M90S ALONG THE COAST, AND M90S INLAND THAT
COULD FLIRT WITH THE U90S. PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES FORECAST
102-106, WITH WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS. THE INCREASED
INLAND HEATING AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON, OFFERING A
SMALL REPRIEVE FROM HEAT BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THE DRY LOW-LEVELS
WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT HURDLE TO DEEP CONVECTION, AND RAIN CHANCES
HAVE BEEN KNOCKED DOWN TO 20-40%. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD BEGIN DEVELOPING ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES BY THE EARLY
AFTERNOON, BUT THE HIGHEST CHANCES ARE MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SEA
BREEZE COLLISION AFTER 5 PM OVER THE INTERIOR FROM ORLANDO SOUTH,
EXCEPT A LITTLE EARLIER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST TO THE NORTH WHERE
A LINGERING RIBBON OF VORTICITY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH COULD
GET SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING BEFORE THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES MUCH
FARTHER INLAND THAN I-95. FOR DEEP CONVECTION THAT MANAGES TO
DEVELOP, COPIOUS INSTABILITY BUT LOW SHEAR WILL FAVOR THE TYPICAL
FLORIDA SUMMER TIME PULSE LIGHTNING STORM, CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS
40-50 MPH, FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW/ERRATIC DUE TO WEAK STEERING
FLOW AND CHAOTIC BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. STORMS AND HEAVY SHOWERS
THAT BECOME STATIONARY COULD DELIVER A QUICK 2-3" OF RAINFALL
LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
HREF AGAIN SHOWS 20-30% CHANCE OF FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING, BUT WILL WAIT AND SEE HOW THIS MORNING PANS
OUT BEFORE COMMITTING MENTION TO THE FORECAST.
TUESDAY...NEAR IDENTICAL FORECAST, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH FURTHER DROPPING TO 20% OR LESS AS A
SLOT OF EVEN DRIER AIR FILTERS IN. RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH
REMAIN 20-40%, FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES AS THEY MOVE
INLAND, AND EVENING SEA BREEZE COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR.
TYPICAL AFTERNOON- EVENING LIGHTNING STORM RISKS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES AGAIN IN THE L-M90S, POSSIBLY A DEGREE OR TO WARMER
ALONG THE COAST, AND FLIRTING WITH THE U90S INLAND. PEAK AFTERNOON
HEAT INDICES 102-106 AND WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS.
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE SEA BREEZE TO BE PINNED FROM THE CAPE
NORTH, PROLONGING HEAT ALONG THAT COAST.
WEDNESDAY-SUNDAY...PATTERN STAYS STAGNANT UNTIL THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHEN A TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, CAUSING THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US TO LIFT NORTH AND SHIFT EASTWARD. MODELS BEGIN
TO QUICKLY DISAGREE HOW THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE BULK OF
THE CONUS WILL EVOLVE THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK, BUT OVER THE
GULF AND FLORIDA, WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO HOLD ALOFT, AND TO
SOME EXTENT BE REINFORCED BY THE FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE WEST. A
VERY WEAK ATLANTIC HIGH SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
STATIONED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA OR SO THROUGH THURSDAY BY THE TROUGH
ALOFT AND ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS PASSING TO THE NORTH,
THEN THE AXIS LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THE TROUGH RETREATS. OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY, THEN BACKS MORE SOUTHERLY AND VERY LIGHT FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON- EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST OVER THE INTERIOR LATER IN THE
WEEK AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND.
SURPRISINGLY POOR AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS ON MOISTURE, ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, HAS REDUCED CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST HEAT
AND RAIN CHANCES. HAVE SEEN FORECAST HEATRISK WINDSHIELD WIPER
BETWEEN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR WITH POCKETS OF EXTREME
IMPACTS ON ANY GIVEN DAY, AND WHILE RAIN CHANCES HAVE GENERALLY
REMAINED IN THE 20-50% BALLPARK, SOME 60-70% CHANCES HAVE COME AND
GONE OVER THE FORECAST CYCLES. OVERALL, THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES, AND ABOVE NORMAL HEAT THAT
COULD BECOME DANGEROUS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 242 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
TODAY-FRIDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL REMAIN STATIONED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY, CONTINUING OFFSHORE (WSW-SW)
FLOW SHIFTING ONSHORE (SE-E) FROM THE AFTERNOONS INTO THE
OVERNIGHTS FROM THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS
FORECAST TO LIFT TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
BACKING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT, WHILE CONTINUING TO SHIFT
ONSHORE (SE-E) BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-15
KTS, PEAKING TO 15 KTS OR MORE AT TIMES IN THE EVENINGS. SEAS 1-2
FT. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND MOST
DAYS, LOWERING CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS MOSTLY TO 20% OR LESS.
HIGHER CHANCES (20-50%) WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 611 AM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
PATCHY STRATUS/FOG NEAR KMCO/KISM EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 12-13Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST
TODAY, WITH OVERALL LOWER SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE (RAIN CHANCES
20-30%). WILL STILL SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF THIS ACTIVITY
IS FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND TOWARD THE I-4 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. SOME STORMS MAY BE
ABLE TO SHIFT SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. VCTS CONTINUES FOR ALL TAF SITES, MAINLY BETWEEN 19-01Z,
AND HAVE ADDED PROB30 GROUPS FOR TSRA IMPACTS ALONG THE I-4
CORRIDOR TAF SITES, INCLUDING KMCO, FROM 21-24Z. CONVECTION WILL
THEN DIMINISH INTO LATE EVENING, WITH DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST
OVERNIGHT.
LIGHTER S/SW WINDS AROUND 5-7 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP INTO THE MORNING.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL FORM INTO THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON, SWITCHING WINDS TO THE E/SE AROUND 8-10 KNOTS AT
THE COAST.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 75 94 75 / 30 10 20 10
MCO 96 76 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
MLB 92 77 92 76 / 20 20 20 20
VRB 92 76 93 76 / 20 10 20 20
LEE 95 76 95 76 / 20 0 10 10
SFB 96 76 96 76 / 30 20 20 10
ORL 95 77 95 76 / 30 20 20 10
FPR 92 76 92 76 / 20 10 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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