981
FXUS62 KMLB 230554
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
154 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
- SUMMER ARRIVES RIGHT ON TIME AND A HOT WEEK IS ON TAP. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FORECAST IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, PUSHING TOWARDS THE
UPPER 90S INLAND, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN
THE TRIPLE DIGITS WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IMPACTS.
- DRY AIR LOWERS AFTERNOON/EVENING RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM
CHANCES BELOW NORMAL (20-40%) THRU TUESDAY, THEN CHANCES PICK
BACK UP THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE RETURNS.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...HOT & HUMID, TYPICAL SUMMER DAY IN ECFL. MAX
TEMPERATURES TO REALIZE L90S AT THE COAST WITH M90S (FEW U90S) INTO
THE INTERIOR, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 101-107. A LITTLE DRIER
(LOW-LEVELS) & WARMER ALOFT THAN PREVIOUS DAYS, THUS LOWER POP
CHANCES 20-40% FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEA BREEZE COLLISION
ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH A LITTLE PUSH-BACK TO THE COAST FOR A FEW
CELLS BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES THRU MID-EVENING. LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE AS A STORM OR TWO COULD DELIVER A QUICK
2-3" RAINFALL AMOUNT OVER A SHORT PERIOD. STORM MOTION OTHERWISE
SLOW/ERRATIC DUE TO MULTIPLE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. PRIMARY STORM
IMPACTS INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES IN A FEW STORMS,
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH
POSSIBLE. THINNING SKIES TONIGHT WITH EVENTUAL MINS IN THE M-U70S.
NOT INCLUDING FOG MENTION IN THE GRIDS/FORECAST, BUT GIVEN
MOISTURE FROM RAIN FROM PAST FEW DAYS CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LOCALIZED SHALLOW, PATCHY FOG BRIEFLY TOWARDS TUE MORNING.
TUE-TUE NIGHT...SIMILAR FORECAST TO MON. HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS
CONTINUE. HIGHS AGAIN IN THE 90S AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
STAYING BELOW HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA, BUT STILL IN THE TRIPLE
DIGITS FOR MOST. STILL ADVERTISING WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IMPACTS. HIGHEST PRECIP CHANCES LATER IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING, WITH BEST CHANCE SOUTH OF ORLANDO 20-40% AS
LOW-LEVELS REMAIN DRIER. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE BELOW 20% NEAR &
NORTH OR ORLANDO. CONVECTION, AGAIN, CENTERED AROUND LATER DAY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND SURFACE HEATING WITH AVAILABLE MOISTURE.
WED-SUN...PATTERN STAYS STAGNANT A BIT STAGNANT UNTIL SOME DEEPER
MOISTURE SURGES BACK INTO THE AREA. WEAK RIDGING ALOFT DRIFTS
FROM THE WESTERN ATLC BACK WEST ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND INTO
THE EASTERN GULF. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING TO THE
SOUTH WILL DRIFT BACK NORTH TOWARD CENTRAL FL INTO THE WEEKEND.
PRE-DOMINANT OFFSHORE (ALBEIT WEAK) SURFACE FLOW (OCCASIONALLY
SOUTHERLY) CONTINUES INTO THE WEEKEND, BUT "BACKS" ONSHORE EACH
AFTERNOON WITH SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND MARCH INLAND. DIURNAL
SHOWERS/STORMS, SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS (WED/THU), CONTINUE
THRU THE PERIOD. HIGHEST COVERAGE OVER THE INTERIOR LATE DAY AND
EARLY EVENING, WITH SOME PUSH BACK TOWARDS THE COAST EACH EVENING.
FORECASTED HEATRISK BETWEEN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR WITH
POCKETS OF EXTREME IMPACTS ON ANY GIVEN DAY.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 218 PM EDT MON JUN 22 2026
THRU FRI...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE. WEAK
SURFACE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SITUATED STATIONED OVER SOUTH FL MID-
WEEK, THEN BEGINS TO DRIFT FURTHER NORTHWARD TOWARD CENTRAL FL. FLOW
GENERALLY OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) SHIFTING ONSHORE (SE-E) EACH AFTERNOON,
THOUGH FLOW MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATER IN THE PERIOD AS THE
RIDGE AXIS BEGINS TO LIFT NORTH. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-15 KTS,
PEAKING TO 15 KTS OR MORE AT TIMES IN THE EVENINGS OFFSHORE. SEAS 1-
2 FT, BUT LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF SHOWERS/LIGHTNING STORMS. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE INLAND MOST DAYS, LOWERING
CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH HIGHEST CHANCES WED/THU.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY INTO TONIGHT. BELOW
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES AGAIN EXPECTED TODAY (~20-30%). GREATEST
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND BRIEF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE SOUTHEAST OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR
FROM MID AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. HAVE KEPT PROB30 GROUPS
FOR MVFR TSRA IMPACTS AT KMLB-KSUA. HAVE ALSO ADDED VCTS FOR
KMCO/KISM AS HI-RES GUIDANCE IS INDICATING SOME ISOLATED STORM
ACTIVITY DEVELOPING JUST EAST OF THE TERMINALS BETWEEN 21-01Z.
FARTHER NORTH OF KMCO, RAIN CHANCES LOOK EVEN MORE LIMITED.
LOW LEVEL OFFSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY TODAY WITH W/SW WINDS
AT THE SFC INCREASING TO 5-10 KNOTS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FL, WHICH WILL LIKELY
PIN THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE COAST NORTH OF KMLB.
FROM KMLB SOUTH, THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL PUSH FAR ENOUGH
INLAND TO SWITCH WINDS THE E/SE AROUND 10 KNOTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 95 76 91 74 / 20 20 40 20
MCO 97 77 93 76 / 20 20 50 20
MLB 93 76 91 76 / 30 30 40 40
VRB 94 76 93 75 / 30 30 30 40
LEE 95 77 93 76 / 0 30 30 10
SFB 97 77 93 75 / 20 20 50 20
ORL 97 78 93 76 / 10 10 50 20
FPR 94 75 93 75 / 30 30 30 40
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...WEITLICH
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