725
FXUS62 KMLB 231747
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
147 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
- LOWER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES TODAY, BUT STORMS THAT MANAGE
FOR FORM COULD PRODUCE STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL
HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
- ABOVE NORMAL HEAT TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO
UPPER 90S RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 103-107 AND
WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS.
- CONFIDENCE IN RAIN CHANCES AND HEAT IMPACTS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL, AND RESIDENTS AND VISITORS
SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST FOR CHANGES. REGARDLESS, HEAT AND
RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN GOING INTO THE WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...TROUGHING BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN US IN RESPONSE
TO A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. GUIDANCE NOW FAVORS THE
UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST, WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NOW DROPPING INTO NORTH TO
POSSIBLY CENTRAL FLORIDA, SHUNTING WEAK RIDING OVER FLORIDA SOUTH
AND EAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH
IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH TOWARDS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BY THE
TROUGH ALOFT AND AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT, NOW FORECAST TO DROP
NEAR NORTH FLORIDA TONIGHT. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE THE OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW A BIT
TO AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, SLOWING INLAND PROGRESSION OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, WHICH COULD END UP PINNED NEAR THE
COAST NORTH OF THE CAPE. DRIER AIR FILTERING ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA KNOCKS RAIN CHANCES DOWN TO JUST 20% NEAR THE COAST FROM
THE CAPE NORTH WHERE THE SEA BREEZES MAY BE ABLE TO GET A SHOWER
OR STORM GOING, UP TO 20-40% TO THE SOUTH WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE
RESIDES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOCUSED ON THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
TROUGH PUSHING SOUTH FARTHER AND FASTER COOLS THE MID-LEVEL (T500
M9-MC), MARGINALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000
J/KG), AND OFFERING A BETTER ENVIRONMENT FOR HAIL GROWTH. LOW-
LEVEL LAPSE RATES REMAIN STEEP (7-9 C/KM) AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES HAVE IMPROVED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS (6-7 C/KM). SHEAR REMAINS
NON-EXISTENT (20 KTS OR LESS) FAVORING A PULSE STORM MODE. WHILE
DRY AIR ALOFT COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS (800-1,100 J/KG), IT WILL
ALSO CAUSE SIGNIFICANT ENTERTAINMENT AND BE A HURDLE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. OVERALL, THERE IS A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP TO BECOME STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE, CAPABLE
OF WIND GUSTS 40-55 MPH AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS TO 60 MPH
(LESS THAN 5% CHANCE), HAIL UP TO 1", FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. STORM MOTION COULD AGAIN
BECOME SLOW/ERRATIC DUE TO LIGHT STEERING WINDS AND CHAOTIC
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, AND STORMS/HEAVY SHOWERS THAT BECOME
STATIONARY COULD DELIVER A QUICK 2-3" OF RAINFALL LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. WITH ALL THE
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS, A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD OR WATERSPOUT CAN'T BE
RULED OUT.
ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE M-U90S COMBINED
WITH HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 103-107,
AND WIDESPREAD MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS. COASTAL AREAS WHERE THE SEA
BREEZE IS SLOW OR FAILS TO DEVELOP WILL BE SUBJECTED TO MORE
PROLONGED HEAT IMPACTS. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SETTLING OF SMOKE
ON PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 520 IN RURAL ORANGE COUNTY NEAR NOVA ROAD
TONIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING THAT COULD REDUCE VISIBILITY. CHANCES
FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ELSEWHERE HAS DROPPED TO 20% OR LESS, AND ONLY
VERY PATCHY FOG WAS SEEN MONDAY MORNING, THUS FOG HAS NOT BEEN
MENTIONED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...THE BASE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH ALOFT
DROPS DOWN MOST IF NOT ALL THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY,
PUSHING A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT INTO FLORIDA. MODEL AGREEMENT
IS IMPROVING AND MOVING TOWARDS THE GFS/ECM-AIFS SOLUTIONS, WHICH
CALL FOR THE FRONT AND VERY DRY AIR TO DROP INTO NORTH FLORIDA AND
TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. PWATS WEDNESDAY ARE FORECAST TO DROP AS
LOW AS 1.4" (0.5" BELOW NORMAL) TO THE NORTH, WITH GFS SOUNDINGS
VERY DRY FROM 850-300MB, NEARLY A DEATH SENTENCE FOR DEEP
CONVECTION. TO THE SOUTH, PWATS REMAIN AROUND 1.8" (NEAR NORMAL),
BUT SOUNDINGS SHOW CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR PERSISTING BETWEEN
850-600MB WHICH WILL BE A HURDLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THURSDAY, WITH PWATS POTENTIALLY CRASHING
TO 1.1-1.5" ACROSS THE NORTH AND 1.5-1.8" ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE
KNOCKED BACK RAIN CHANCES BOTH DAYS A FAIR AMOUNT TO 30-50%
WEDNESDAY AND 20-50% THURSDAY, BUT DON'T WANT TO OVER CORRECT AS
CAMS ARE STILL CALLING FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
STORMS, BUT THEY MAY NEED A CYCLE OR TWO TO CATCH UP. IF THE
CURRENT MODEL TRENDS HOLD RAIN CHANCES COULD COME DOWN A FEW MORE
POINTS IN THE NEXT COUPLE FORECAST CYCLES. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
IN THE STORM ENVIRONMENT FOR A DETAILED ASSESSMENT, BUT AT THE
MOMENT THERE IS AGAIN CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR STORMS THAT
MANAGE TO DEVELOP TO AGAIN BECOME STRONG. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH KNOCKS HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK A COUPLE DEGREES TO
THE L-M90S, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 100-106, AND
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS.
FRIDAY-MONDAY...A TROUGH MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS MEXICO, TEXAS,
AND TOWARDS THE GULF, CAUSING THE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN US TO
RETREAT NORTH AS AN ADDITIONAL WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES OVER
FLORIDA FROM THE ATLANTIC. THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS THE
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS, AND THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE
ATLANTIC HIGH SLIDES NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA. FLOW GENERALLY
REMAINS LIGHT OFFSHORE, BUT COULD BE MORE SOUTHERLY AT TIMES,
ALLOWING THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE TO PUSH FURTHER INLAND AND A
COLLISION OVER THE INTERIOR. MOISTURE QUICKLY RECOVERS, AND NEAR
TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES FORECAST, WITH THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOCUSED OVER THE INTERIOR IN THE LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING ON
THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. ABOVE NORMAL HEAT CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN DANGEROUS HEAT MAY MAKE A RETURN.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 303 AM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
TODAY-SATURDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE ALBEIT HOT BOATING CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE ATLANTIC HIGH WEAKLY
EXTENDS TOWARDS FLORIDA. A WEAKENING FRONT THAT MAY DROP NEAR TO
INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL KEEP THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SUPPRESSED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY,
CONTINUING OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW. THE FRONT DEPARTS AND THE RIDGE
LIFTS NORTH TOWARDS CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND,
SHIFTING FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY REMAINING
OFFSHORE. WINDS BACK ONSHORE (SE-E) FROM THE AFTERNOONS INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHTS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS, WHICH WILL
BE ABLE TO GRADUALLY PUSH FARTHER INLAND EACH DAY AS OFFSHORE FLOW
WEAKENS. WIND SPEEDS 5-15 KTS, OCCASIONALLY PUSHING OVER 15 KTS
OFFSHORE IN THE OVERNIGHTS. SEAS 1-2 FT. MOST SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS EXPECTED TO STAY INLAND, BUT A FEW COULD MOVE
OFFSHORE IN THE EVENINGS, AND ISOLATED OVERNIGHT SHOWERS AND
STORMS CAN'T BE RULED OUT.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT TUE JUN 23 2026
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS WITH HIGH
PRESSURE (~1021MB) OVER THE W GULF OF AMERICA. W WINDS AT 5-10KTS
ARE FORECAST TO BACK ONSHORE AT THE COASTAL TAFS INTO THE PM S OF
KDAB BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT & MOSTLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. VCTS IS
FORECAST THIS PM AT KMCO AND TO THE ESE WITH PROB30 GROUPS AT KMLB
AND TO THE S. VCTS RETURNS TO THE FORECAST AFTER 17Z/18Z WED.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 91 75 92 / 20 30 10 30
MCO 77 94 76 95 / 10 60 20 60
MLB 77 91 77 91 / 30 60 30 50
VRB 76 93 76 92 / 20 40 30 50
LEE 78 95 76 95 / 20 30 10 30
SFB 77 95 75 95 / 10 60 20 40
ORL 78 93 76 94 / 10 60 10 50
FPR 76 93 75 92 / 20 40 30 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...FEHLING
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