749
FXUS62 KMLB 241127
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
727 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. STORMS COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES,
STRONG TO LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS.
- FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STORMS AND ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT REMAIN ON TAP.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND EXTREME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...TROUGHING CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN US IN
RESPONSE TO A RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. RIBBONS OF
VORTICITY TRANSITING THE PATTERN HAVE AMPLIFIED THE TROUGH SOME,
PUSHING THE BASE SOUTH OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, BUT UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION MAY DWINDLE AS THE DAY GOES ON
BETWEEN THE RIDGE AXIS ALREADY PUSHING OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST,
AND THE TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO STICK TO
THE LATEST TREND, KEEPING THE APPROACHING WEAK FRONT AND DRIER
AIR NEAR THE BOUNDARY OVER NORTH FLORIDA, AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL MOISTURE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. NOTABLY, MORE MOISTURE
IS IN THE 850-700MB LAYER, WHICH HAD BEEN LACKING THE LAST COUPLE
DAY AND LIMITING RAIN CHANCES. WEAK OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW NORTH
OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL ENHANCE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
AND SLOW THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, RESULTING IN A COLLISION AND
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM NEAR LAKE
GEORGE TO ORLANDO AND TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE IN THE LATE EVENING.
PRIOR TO THE COLLISION, INITIALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SEA BREEZES IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON, GRADUALLY
INCREASING IN COVERAGE UNTIL THE COLLISION. WESTERLY STEERING FLOW
WILL PUSH STORMS BACK TOWARDS THE COAST INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
EARLY OVERNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING OR MOVING OFFSHORE. GUIDANCE
SHOWS SLIGHT WARMING ALOFT AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS AND WEAKENS (T500
AROUND -7C), BUT STILL COPIOUS INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 2,000-3,000
J/KG) AND STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-9 C/KM). SHEAR REMAINS
WEAK AT 20 KTS OR LESS, BUT LOW-LEVEL VEERING ON BOUNDARIES COULD
PROVIDE SOME ENHANCEMENT. STILL SOME DRY AIR PRESENT IN THE MID-
UPPER LEVELS THAT COULD ENHANCE DOWNDRAFTS (DCAPE +800 J/KG).
OVERALL, PRIMARY STORM HAZARDS CONTINUE TO BE WIND GUSTS 40-55
MPH, WITH A VERY LOW CHANCE (<5%) FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS TO
60 MPH, HAIL UP TO 1", FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND
TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. BETTER STEERING FLOW REDUCES THE RISK OF
FLOODING SOME, BUT MULTIPLE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD CAUSE
SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTION, AND LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
2-3" LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
TECHNICALLY A LITTLE LESS HOT THAN YESTERDAY, BUT WON'T REALLY
FEEL LIKE IT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S COMBINED WITH
HUMIDITY WILL RESULT IN MUGGY HEAT AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 100-105,
AND WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IMPACTS WITH PATCHES OF MAJOR IN
THE URBAN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL CORRIDOR.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...A TROUGH SWINGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FLATTENS THE RIDGE OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST, CAUSING THE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN US TO WEAKEN, AND OPENING THE DOOR FOR HIGH
PRESSURE TO FILL OVER FLORIDA FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE WEAK
FRONT DEPARTS NORTH THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS FROM
THE ATLANTIC HIGH TO LIFT INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA. FLOW REMAINS
GENERALLY OFFSHORE, BUT MAY BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY AND LIGHT AT
TIMES, ESPECIALLY BY FRIDAY. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WHERE DRIER
AIR NEAR THE FRONT WILL BE COME THURSDAY, BUT FORECAST TRENDS ARE
TO KEEP THE DRIEST AIR MOSTLY NORTH OF THE AREA AND NEAR NORMAL
MOISTURE OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE GFS STILL HAS PWATS DOWN
TO 1.4" ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4 THURSDAY, BUT SUSPECT THESE ARE TOO
LOW AND CONTAMINATING THE POPS. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR 20-50%
RAIN CHANCES, HIGHEST TO THE SOUTH, BUT WOULDN'T BE SURPRISED IF
THESE INCREASED IN THE NEXT CYCLE OR TWO. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES
GRADUALLY MARCH WEST OVER THE INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO PUSH FARTHER INLAND AS THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WEAKENS. HEAT STARTS TO CREEP BACK UP, WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
GETTING CLOSER TO THE M90S ALONG THE COAST AN U90S INLAND. PEAK
AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 102-107 JUST SHY OF HEAT ADVISORY. MAJOR
HEATRISK IMPACTS GRADUALLY OVERTAKE MODERATE, ESPECIALLY OVER THE
URBAN INTERIOR.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS OVER
THE CONUS WITH FLORIDA UNDER THE SOUTHEAST FLANK OF A RIDGE
BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL-EASTERN US. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK
RIDGE AXIS FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPS BACK
SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TO THE NORTH. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY HOW
THE FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE, WITH SOME MODEL
SOLUTIONS PUSHING IT DOWN TOWARDS NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA AS A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ATTEMPTING
TO DEVELOP DISTURBANCES ON THE STALLED BOUNDARY. WITH OR WITHOUT
THE FRONT, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS VERY LOOSE, RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW THAT GIVES WAY TO THE SEA BREEZES IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENINGS. THIS WILL FAVOR COLLISIONS OVER THE SPINE
OF THE PENINSULA. FLOW REGIME MAY SWITCH TO ONSHORE GOING INTO
MID TO LATE WEEK. ENSEMBLE MEAN MOISTURE IS GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
RAIN CHANCES MOST DAYS, OCCASIONALLY UPSET BY DRIER AIR ALOFT
KNOCKING CHANCES BELOW NORMAL (MAINLY SUNDAY AT THIS JUNCTURE).
HIGHEST CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION IN THE EVENINGS
OVER THE INTERIOR, PUSHING FARTHER WEST IF FLOW BECOMES MORE
EASTERLY. ENOUGH VARIATION IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES AND MOISTURE
THAT CONFIDENCE IN HEAT IMPACTS ARE STILL LOW, BUT TRENDS REMAIN
VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED. CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL HEAT WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE L-M90S, PUSHING TOWARDS THE U90S INLAND
THROUGH MONDAY, RESULTING IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE
TRIPLE DIGITS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF
OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS. A WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTH
FLORIDA TODAY KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH SUPPRESSED
OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY, CONTINUING OFFSHORE (WSW-SW)
THROUGH MOST OF THURSDAY. THE FRONT THEN DEPARTS ALLOWING THE
RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
SHIFTING LIGHT FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AT TIMES BUT GENERALLY
REMAINING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE
RESIDUAL FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST SEABOARD SHUNTS
THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH AGAIN, AND THE WEAK FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW MAY DROP SOUTH TOWARDS OR INTO THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK. WINDS BACK ONSHORE (E-SE) FROM THE AFTERNOONS INTO THE
EARLY OVERNIGHTS EACH DAY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WIND SPEEDS
GENERALLY 5-15 KTS, OCCASIONALLY TICKING OVER 15 KTS OFFSHORE IN
THE EARLY OVERNIGHTS. SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGHEST CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE
MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY AND THURSDAY, THEN
CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
MAINLY VFR TO START THE DAY, WITH INTERMITTENT BKN020-030 MOVING
N-S ACROSS SFB/MCO/TIX. VCSH BEGINS AS EARLY AS 15Z FOR MCO BUT
TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN EARNEST AFTER 17Z-19Z, ENDING AROUND
01-02Z THU. HIGHEST COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG COLLIDING STORM OUTFLOW
AND SEA BREEZE COLLISIONS, PARTICULARLY AT SFB/MCO/ISM. CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN PROB30 FOR SURROUNDING SITES AND
MENTION VCTS ALONG THE TREASURE COAST. SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE
35+ KT GUSTS. OTHERWISE, 5-10 WSW FLOW VEERS ONSHORE AT COASTAL
SITES AFTER 16Z-17Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 91 75 93 75 / 40 10 30 20
MCO 94 76 95 76 / 60 40 40 30
MLB 91 76 91 77 / 40 30 30 20
VRB 93 75 92 77 / 50 30 30 20
LEE 94 76 95 76 / 40 30 30 20
SFB 94 75 95 76 / 60 30 30 30
ORL 93 76 94 76 / 60 40 40 30
FPR 92 75 92 76 / 40 40 30 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...HALEY
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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