598
FXUS62 KMLB 250553
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
153 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST
ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVER. STORMS
COULD PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, STRONG TO LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS, HAIL, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS.
- FORECAST CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARDS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. FORECAST
CONFIDENCE DECREASES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT STORMS AND ABOVE
NORMAL HEAT WILL CONTINUE.
- WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND EXTREME IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN
US AS A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US REMAINS IN PLACE. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US, AMPLIFYING THE TROUGH A
BIT, AND ALLOWING THE TROUGH TO DIP SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. AT THE SURFACE, A RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN ACROSS
SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THE DAY, SLOWLY SHIFTING TO THE EAST. A WEAK
FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA TODAY, WITH DRIER AIR STAYING
CONFINED NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY (ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA).
LOCALLY, MOISTURE WILL BE NEAR NORMAL, WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-
1.8". WEAK OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL
ENHANCE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE AND SLOW THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE. THIS WILL RESULT IN THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION OCCURRING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THERE IS A MEDIUM (40-60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL INITIATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE
HIGHEST COVERAGE OCCURRING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL PUSH BACK
TOWARDS THE COAST INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING OR
EVENTUALLY PUSHING OFFSHORE.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS OUTLINED PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA IN A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWS A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS, WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY (MUCAPE
2,000-3,000 J/KG), SUFFICIENT SHEAR (0-6KM SHEAR AROUND 20 KT),
STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES (7-9 C/KM), AND PLENTY OF DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL (DCAPE 1000-1400 J/KG). GUIDANCE DOES SHOWS SLIGHT
WARMING ALOFT HOWEVER, AS THE TROUGH DEPARTS AND WEAKENS ( -7C AT
500MB). THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG TO
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OF 40-60 MPH (5-14 % CHANCE WINDS UP TO 60
MPH), HAIL UP TO 1 INCH (LESS THAN 5 % CHANCE THAT HAIL WILL REACH
1 INCH), FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING, AND A BRIEF TORNADO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT (LESS THAN 2 PERCENT CHANCE OF A TORNADO),
MAINLY ALONG BOUNDARY COLLISIONS. BETTER STEERING FLOW REDUCES THE
RISK OF FLOODING SOME, BUT MULTIPLE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS COULD
CAUSE SLOW/ERRATIC STORM MOTION, AND LOCALLY HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2-3" LEADING TO MINOR FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY, ALBEIT SLIGHTLY LESS HOT
THAN YESTERDAY. AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, UNDER
PARTLY SUNNY SKIES. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY,
WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105 DEGREES, AS WELL AS
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IMPACTS WITH PATCHES OF MAJOR IN THE
URBAN INTERIOR AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL CORRIDOR. WARM
AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
THURSDAY-FRIDAY... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL
WEAKEN, ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AT THE SURFACE, THE WEAK FRONT ACROSS
NORTH FLORIDA WILL LIFT NORTHWARD THURSDAY, ALLOWING THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC TO SHIFT OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.
LOCALLY, SURFACE FLOW WILL GENERALLY REMAIN OFFSHORE, BECOMING LIGHT
AND SOUTHERLY AT TIMES BY FRIDAY. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS
FORECAST TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON. WHILE DRIER AIR WILL FILTER
ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG THE FRONT, NEAR NORMAL PW VALUES
(1.7-1.9") ARE FORECAST LOCALLY THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A LOW
TO MEDIUM (20-60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES GRADUALLY MARCH WEST OVER THE
INTERIOR EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS ABLE TO
PUSH FARTHER INLAND AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS. A WARMING TREND
WILL BEGIN, WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S ALONG
THE COAST AND UPPER 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT
INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES. THIS WILL BE JUST SHY OF HEAT
ADVISORY. MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IMPACTS ARE FORECAST EACH
DAY.
SATURDAY-TUESDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL-
EASTERN US, INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WILL DOMINATE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THE WEAK RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
ATLANTIC HIGH OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA DROPS BACK SOUTH THROUGH THE
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
NORTH. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL EVOLVE. SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS PUSH IT
DOWN TOWARDS NORTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, THEN ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP DISTURBANCES ON
THE STALLED BOUNDARY. LOCALLY, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN
LOOSE, WHICH WILL RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE FLOW. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
TURNING THE FLOW ONSHORE. THIS WILL FAVOR COLLISIONS OVER THE
SPINE OF THE PENINSULA. MOISTURE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD, RESULTING IN NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MOST DAYS. HOWEVER, SOME DRIER
AIR ALOFT ON SUNDAY HAS RESULTED IN BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES.
HIGHEST RAIN AND STORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING OVER THE INTERIOR,
PUSHING FARTHER WEST IF FLOW BECOMES MORE EASTERLY. HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ABOVE NORMAL
HEAT WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S,
PUSHING TOWARDS THE UPPER 90S INLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS ENOUGH VARIATION IN FORECAST TEMPERATURES
AND MOISTURE THAT CONFIDENCE IN HEAT IMPACTS ARE STILL LOW, BUT
TRENDS REMAIN VERY CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL NEED
TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED JUN 24 2026
TODAY-SUNDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF OFFSHORE MOVING LIGHTNING STORMS. A
WEAK FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTH FLORIDA TODAY KEEPS THE RIDGE AXIS OF
THE ATLANTIC HIGH SUPPRESSED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH THURSDAY.
OFFSHORE (WSW-SW) FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY. THE FRONT
THEN DEPARTS ALLOWING THE RIDGE AXIS TO LIFT NORTH INTO CENTRAL
FLORIDA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, SHIFTING LIGHT FLOW MORE SOUTHERLY AT
TIMES BUT GENERALLY REMAINING OFFSHORE. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
DEVELOPING ON THE RESIDUAL FRONT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
SEABOARD SHUNTS THE RIDGE AXIS SOUTH AGAIN, AND THE WEAK FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW MAY DROP SOUTH TOWARDS OR INTO THE LOCAL
ATLANTIC WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS BACK ONSHORE (E-SE) FROM THE
AFTERNOONS INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHTS EACH DAY AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. WIND SPEEDS GENERALLY 5-15 KT, OCCASIONALLY TICKING OVER
15 KT OFFSHORE IN THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEAS 1-2 FT. HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR OFFSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS TODAY AND
THURSDAY, THEN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY GOING INTO THE WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. LIGHT SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KT (VARIABLE AT TIMES) BECOME 5-10 KT AFTER 15Z, VEERING
SSE AT COASTAL SITES BY 17-18Z. TEMPO/PROB30 INCLUDED AT ALL ECFL
SITES BETWEEN 17Z-00Z AS TSRA DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN
MVFR/IFR IMPACTS FROM TIX/ISM/MCO NORTHWARD. GRADUAL WEAKENING OF
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST/OFFSHORE AFTER
00Z.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 75 93 76 / 50 40 40 20
MCO 94 76 94 77 / 60 50 50 30
MLB 91 77 90 78 / 40 30 20 10
VRB 92 77 91 77 / 40 20 30 10
LEE 94 77 94 78 / 50 30 50 30
SFB 95 76 95 77 / 60 40 50 30
ORL 94 77 94 77 / 60 40 50 30
FPR 91 76 91 77 / 40 20 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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