580
FXUS62 KMLB 251129
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
729 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST TODAY, WITH
LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS
ALL POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE AS A RESULT MONDAY ONWARD.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 100F EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDING TOWARDS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH TODAY, WITH A
SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PENINSULA
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD AS A RESULT. THIS WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE
RIDGE AXIS TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, WITH
LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FORECAST AREAWIDE EARLY THIS
MORNING. THIS LIGHT FLOW CONTINUES INTO THE LOW AND MID LEVELS,
ALLOWING FOR THE DEVELOPMENT AND WESTWARD PUSH INLAND OF THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
PWATS OF 1.6-1.9" WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INLAND, WITH COVERAGE ANTICIPATED TO PEAK
THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN 2 PM AND 8 PM AS THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION
OCCURS ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE PENINSULA. STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS ACTIVITY AND COOLER 500MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRY AIR ALOFT WILL FAVOR SOME GUSTY DOWNBURSTS AND SMALL HAIL AT
TIMES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT DEVELOP. A BRIEF FUNNEL
CLOUD OR TWO AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE FULLY RULED OUT
WHERE MULTIPLE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR, BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
REMAINS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND AS
THE ENVIRONMENT BECOMES WORKED OVER, ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED TO
DIMINISH ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAVE REMAINED A CONCERN,
AND TODAY IS NO DIFFERENT. AFTERNOON HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES FOCUSED
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. HUMID CONDITIONS PERSIST, COMBINING WITH
TEMPERATURES TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-105F RANGE.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE HEATRISK IS FORECAST, WITH SOME POCKETS OF
MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST NEAR THE ORLANDO METRO AND ACROSS PORTIONS
OF BREVARD AND INDIAN RIVER COUNTIES. OVERALL, ADEQUATE HYDRATION
AND FREQUENT BREAKS FROM THE HEAT WILL BE KEY IN PREVENTING HEAT
ILLNESS TODAY. OVERNIGHT, MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S AREAWIDE.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY BUILD ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND, SUPPORTING CONTINUED BROAD HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE.
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO STAY DRAPED ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA, RESULTING IN PERSISTENT LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LOCALLY. THIS LIGHTER FLOW AT THE SURFACE COMBINED
WITH HOT TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EACH AFTERNOON, WITH WINDS ALONG THE
EAST COAST BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST. THE PROGRESSION
INLAND OF THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE LOW TO MID LEVEL
FLOW, WHICH GUIDANCE SHOWS AS GENERALLY REMAINING WEAKER THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA, WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ON FRIDAY FAVORED NEAR
THE ORLANDO METRO. INTO THIS WEEKEND, SOME MODEL GUIDANCE
SOLUTIONS SHOW DRIER AIR MOVING TOWARDS THE AREA, RESULTING IN
DECREASING RAIN AND STORM CHANCES. THE NBM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS THE
DRIER SOLUTIONS, WITH RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AROUND 30-40% ON
SATURDAY AND 20-30% ON SUNDAY. THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY
WITH THIS HOWEVER, SO COULD SEE POPS TREND IN EITHER DIRECTION AS
THE PICTURE BECOMES CLEARER. EXACT STORM HAZARDS REMAIN UP IN THE
AIR ESPECIALLY GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS DRIER AIR INTO THE
WEEKEND, BUT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY, WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
AS MENTIONED, HOT TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGHS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S NEARLY AREAWIDE, WITH SOME
SPOTS ON SUNDAY REACHING THE UPPER 90S, ESPECIALLY NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE I-4 CORRIDOR. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH HUMIDITY
TO PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES IN THE 100-107F RANGE. ADDITIONALLY,
WITH THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ONGOING FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF TIME, HEATRISK VALUES ARE FORECAST TO WIDELY BE MODERATE TO
MAJOR, WITH COVERAGE OF MAJOR HEATRISK EXPANDING TO COVER MORE OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA EACH DAY. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
INDICATES THAT MOST PEOPLE WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS WITHOUT PROPER PREVENTATIVE ACTION. IF SPENDING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS, BE SURE TO REMAIN ADEQUATELY
HYDRATED, TAKE BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AN AIR-CONDITIONED BUILDING,
AND IF POSSIBLE, SHIFT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AWAY FROM THE PEAK HEAT
HOURS OF THE DAY. OVERNIGHT, TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 70S
AREAWIDE.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST US WILL BE SHOVED WESTWARD AS A TROUGH SLIDES SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EAST COAST AND TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON MONDAY.
THIS WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS, WITH CURRENT GUIDANCE INDICATING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TOWARDS FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW.
MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE PENINSULA AS A
RESULT. ENERGY FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL REMAIN SITUATED
OVERHEAD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH MID-WEEK, ALLOWING
FOR THE BOUNDARY TO REMAIN IN PLACE AND NEARLY STATIONARY. BROAD
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE GULF WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING TOWARDS
FLORIDA. THE PERSISTENT OFFSHORE FLOW IS ANTICIPATED TO VEER AND
BECOME MORE ONSHORE BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, ALLOWING FOR
GREATER INTRUSION INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THIS IN
COMBINATION WITH THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL PROMPT A RETURN OF
40-70% RAIN AND STORM CHANCES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
THE EXTENDED FORECAST, WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES FOCUSED ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE EXACT TIMING AND STORM
THREATS, BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE COVERAGE PEAKING DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH LIGHTNING, WIND GUSTS, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALL POSSIBLE. GUIDANCE INDICATES COVERAGE WANING
INTO THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH ONGOING
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL VALUES, WITH THE WARMEST HIGHS ANTICIPATED ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON. PEAK HEAT INDICES ABOVE 100F ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA ON
MONDAY. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE THIS WITH A LOT OF
CONFIDENCE, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW THE
FORECAST AND PLAN ACCORDINGLY IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME
OUTDOORS. REMAIN HYDRATED, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHT COLORED
CLOTHING, AND TAKE BREAKS FROM THE HEAT IN THE SHADE OR AN AIR
CONDITIONED BUILDING.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AS BROAD HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. SEAS OF 1-3 FEET PERSIST ALONG WITH
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. RAIN CHANCES ARE
ALSO FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIMITED, WITH ONLY ISOLATED
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED AT TIMES.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A BOUNDARY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE LOCAL WATERS AND A LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE
COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, RESULTING IN WINDS BECOMING MORE ONSHORE
AROUND 10 KNOTS TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SEAS ARE FORECAST
TO GRADUALLY BUILD, POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 4 TO 5 FEET
OFFSHORE. THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS THOUGH. RAIN
AND STORM CHANCES ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS
MONDAY ONWARD AS MOISTURE INCREASES AREAWIDE.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 729 AM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
VFR OUTSIDE OF AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING STORMS. LIGHT SW WINDS
AROUND 5 KT THIS MORNING BECOME 5-10 KT AFTER 15Z, VEERING SSE AT
COASTAL SITES BY 16-18Z. TEMPO/PROB30 INCLUDED AT ALL ECFL SITES
BETWEEN 17Z-00Z AS TSRA DEVELOP. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MVFR/IFR
IMPACTS FROM ISM/MCO NORTHWARD TO DAB, EVENTUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD
TIX/MLB BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS 00-03Z. GUSTS 35+ KT ARE POSSIBLE
WITH STRONGER STORMS. VFR AND DRIER AFTER 04Z FRI.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 93 75 93 76 / 50 40 40 20
MCO 94 76 94 77 / 60 50 50 30
MLB 91 77 90 78 / 40 30 20 10
VRB 92 77 91 77 / 40 20 30 10
LEE 94 77 94 78 / 50 30 50 30
SFB 95 76 95 77 / 60 40 50 30
ORL 94 77 94 77 / 60 40 50 30
FPR 91 76 91 77 / 40 20 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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