343
FXUS62 KMLB 260530
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
130 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALL POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE AS A RESULT MONDAY ONWARD.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 100F EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT... A STATIONARY FRONT IS ANALYZED OVER PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA WHILE A BROAD RIDGE AXIS REMAINS SETTLED OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA. LIGHT WINDS HAVE ALLOWED THE EAST COAST SEA
BREEZE TO DEVELOP FROM THE CAPE SOUTHWARD EARLY THIS AFTERNOON,
AND SOME CONVECTION HAS ALREADY STARTED TO BUBBLE UP ON THE EAST
SIDE OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR. ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS IS ANTICIPATED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IN ADDITION TO SUFFICIENT SURFACE INSTABILITY,
MODELED PULSES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY ALOFT MAY ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT. TALL UPDRAFTS WHICH INTERACT WITH
DRY AIR ALOFT (DCAPE ~ 800-1,200 J/KG) WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED STRONG DOWNBURSTS PRODUCING WIND GUSTS AROUND 55 MPH.
500MB TEMPERATURES ANALYZED AROUND -8C MAY BECOME LOCALLY COOLER
IN THE PRESENCE OF ANY PASSING SHORTWAVE ENERGY, AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG CONVECTION TODAY. LIGHT STEERING
FLOW SHOULD PUSH CONVECTION TOWARDS THE NORT-NORTHEAST, ALTHOUGH
DIRECTION MAY BECOME VARIABLE AT TIMES AROUND BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL PROMOTE THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THIS EVENING. ACTIVITY GRADUALLY
DWINDLES BEYOND SUNSET WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN FORECAST
OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S.
FRIDAY-SUNDAY... HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
REMAINS DRAPED ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM
THE ATLANTIC HIGH. A TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN OF SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS (~40-60%) IS FORECAST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST ON SUNDAY WITH RAIN
CHANCES RANGING 20-40%, HOWEVER MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN MOISTURE
MAY LEAD TO SOME FLUCTUATION IN SUNDAY'S POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW
FORECAST CYCLES. MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES SUGGESTS A MODEST LAYER
OF DRY AIR PERSISTING IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS THROUGH THE PERIOD,
CONTINUING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED THUNDERSTORM DOWNBURSTS
WITHIN STRONGER STORMS. STRONGER STORMS WHICH DEVELOP, WILL BE
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 40-50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES.
LIGHT STEERING FLOW MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW MOVING OR STATIONARY STORMS.
HOT, ABOVE NORMAL, TEMPERATURES PERSIST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS MOSTLY RANGE THE LOW TO MID 90S ALONG THE
COAST WITH MID 90S ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LOCALIZED AREAS NORTH AND
WEST OF THE I-4 REGION MAY EVEN TOUCH THE UPPER 90S THIS WEEKEND
WITH MODERATE PROBABILITIES (40-50%) OF MEETING OR EXCEEDING 97F.
PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES MOSTLY RANGE 102-107F, AND A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK WILL IMPACT THOSE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING OR
HYDRATION.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY... THE LOCAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHIFTS MONDAY INTO
MIDWEEK AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH ROUNDS THE EASTERN SIDE OF HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN U.S. DEEP MOISTURE BUILDS AS A
SURFACE FRONT SAGS NEAR OR ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING RAIN CHANCES (50-80%) THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE LOW AND MID LEVELS MONDAY, AND A WARM, MOIST AIRMASS MAY
SUPPORT PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AS THE SEA BREEZE SLOWLY
MOVES INLAND AGAINST THE PREVAILING FLOW. AN EAST-NORTHEAST SHIFT IN
WINDS INTO MID WEEK WILL ALLOW FOR AN EASIER INLAND PROGRESSION
OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE, BUT A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT MAY
STILL EXIST WHERE STORMS BECOME STATIONARY ALONG BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WITH GREATEST FOCUS TOWARDS THE INTERIOR. VERY HOT AND
HUMID ON MONDAY WITH PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES WIDELY EXCEEDING 104F.
A FEW DEGREES "COOLER" TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT STILL REMAINING
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT THU JUN 25 2026
A BROAD AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE IS MAINTAINED OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOUTHERLY WINDS REMAIN 10 KTS OR LESS
EARLY EACH DAY BEFORE TURNING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AROUND 10-15 KTS EACH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS OF
1-2 FT PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, OCCASIONALLY BUILDING TO 3 FT
FAR OFFSHORE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST
OVER THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
AND A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS 34 KTS OR
GREATER. COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS DECREASES OVER THE WATERS
LATE WEEK. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GULF STREAM DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR OUTSIDE OF DAYTIME SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. LIGHT (5-10 KT) S WINDS
AFTER 14Z TURN ONSHORE BY 16-18Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS. ISO TSRA
ARE POSSIBLE, ESP. VRB-SUA THRU 20Z. AS THE WEST/EAST COAST
BREEZES MOVE INLAND, ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
WITH TEMPOS OVER INLAND SITES AND DAB. TSRA GUSTS 30-40 KT AND
BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 00-02Z SAT.
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 76 92 76 / 40 30 40 10
MCO 94 77 94 76 / 40 40 60 20
MLB 90 78 90 77 / 20 10 30 0
VRB 91 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 0
LEE 93 77 94 77 / 50 30 50 20
SFB 94 76 95 77 / 40 40 50 20
ORL 93 77 93 77 / 40 40 50 20
FPR 90 77 90 76 / 30 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...LAW
AVIATION...SCHAPER
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page