995
FXUS62 KMLB 261121
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
721 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, WITH LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS ALL POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE AS A RESULT MONDAY ONWARD.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 100F EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT...BROAD MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA, RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
AREAWIDE AT THE SURFACE. MINIMAL CLOUD COVERAGE ACROSS FLORIDA
WILL ALLOW FOR ADEQUATE DAYTIME HEATING, WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING
INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S BY THIS AFTERNOON. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO FEEL MUGGY, WITH PEAK
HEAT INDICES REACHING THE 100-105F RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS, WITH A GRADUAL PROGRESSION INLAND CAUSING WINDS TO BECOME
MORE SOUTHEASTERLY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE, WITH A SEA BREEZE COLLISION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON LEADING TO THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF THE DAY
RELATIVE TO SHOWERS AND STORMS. SUFFICIENT DAYTIME HEATING WILL
PUSH MUCAPE VALUES ABOVE 1700 J/KG ACROSS MOST AREAS, WITH MODEST
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALSO SUPPORTING STORM GROWTH. 500 MB
TEMPERATURES REMAIN BETWEEN -8 TO -7C ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
WITH MODELED SOUNDINGS SHOWING A POCKET OF DRY AIR ABOVE 700 MB
THAT WILL PUSH DCAPE VALUES TO 600-1000 J/KG AREAWIDE. OVERALL,
STORM THREATS WILL INCLUDE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS
TO 55 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE HI-RES
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE GREATEST COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS NEAR THE ORLANDO METRO, WITH ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PUSHING
BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MUGGY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 70S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY...MID-LEVEL RIDGING STRETCHES FROM TEXAS AND
ACROSS THE GULF TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, HELPING TO KEEP THE BROAD SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE
ACROSS FLORIDA. THE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA, WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST. WINDS
WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY EACH AFTERNOON AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
AND STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE POSSIBLE AS IT
MOVES INLAND, WITH ACTIVITY PEAKING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR THE
COLLISION ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. THE BEST RAIN CHANCES
(30-60%) ARE FORECAST ON SATURDAY. MODEL DISCREPANCIES IN THE
AMOUNT OF DRY AIR PRESENT ACROSS THE PENINSULA ON SUNDAY HAVE KEPT
RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AROUND 20-30%, THOUGH FLUCTUATIONS IN THIS
WILL BE POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON HOW MODEL GUIDANCE TRENDS. STUCK
WITH THE NBM AS A GOOD MIDDLE GROUND FOR RAIN CHANCES AT THIS
TIME. STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SUPPORTED BY MODEST LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND
DCAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 800 J/KG SUPPORTING LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS, AND EVEN SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE AND THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWEST. AS MENTIONED, STEERING FLOW
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAK, BUT THE LIGHT WESTERLY COMPONENT SHOULD
DRIVE ACTIVITY BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS
AND EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH A RETURN TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FLOW AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S WHILE LOWS STAY NEAR-
NORMAL IN THE 70S. THE WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND AREAS NORTHWARD EACH DAY. THESE HOT
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH MUGGY CONDITIONS TO PRODUCE PEAK
HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F AREAWIDE. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA, MEANING MOST INDIVIDUALS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO
DEVELOPING HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS IF NOT PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY. BE
SURE TO REMAIN ADEQUATELY HYDRATED, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT, LIGHTLY
COLORED CLOTHING, AND TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AN AIR
CONDITIONED BUILDING IF SPENDING EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME
OUTDOORS.
MONDAY-THURSDAY...THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN US WILL BE DISRUPTED BY A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE EASTERN FLANK OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH THE
ENERGY FROM THE TROUGH EXTENDING WESTWARD TOWARDS THE GULF THROUGH
MID-WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, THIS TROUGH WILL SUPPORT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF THE
CAROLINAS, WITH THE LOW DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. CURRENT GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS QUASI-
STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MOST OF
THE PERIOD, DRIFTING SOUTHWARD LATE INTO THE WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY
WILL RESULT IN INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA,
WHICH IN TURN WILL TRANSLATE TO GREATER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES
AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. PWATS ARE ANTICIPATED TO SURGE PAST 2"
ONCE AGAIN AREAWIDE, WITH ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE
ATLANTIC POSSIBLE AS WINDS BECOME MORE ONSHORE. POPS RANGE FROM
40-70% MOST AFTERNOONS, WITH SOME INDICATION THAT RAIN CHANCES
DECREASE INTO THURSDAY AS THE BOUNDARY AND PLUME OF MOISTURE
DRIFTS SOUTHWARD. THERE IS STILL A GOOD DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS THOUGH. HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EACH
AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR PEAK HEAT INDICES EXCEEDING
100F, WITH A 10-25% CHANCE OF NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FOR
NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE MET, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH NEXT
WEEK. IN ORDER TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS, RESIDENTS AND
VISITORS WILL NEED TO REMAIN ADEQUATELY HYDRATED AND TAKE FREQUENT
BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR AIR CONDITIONED BUILDINGS IF SPENDING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTDOORS.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 245 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THAT BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN
THE AFTERNOONS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OFFSHORE-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH
STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-WATER LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS, SMALL HAIL, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. MOST
ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, THOUGH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WILL BE
POSSIBLE.
THE PATTERN SHIFTS NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTS
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WATERS, WITH WINDS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE
ONSHORE AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEAS STAY GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3
FEET. RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK THANKS TO
GREATER MOISTURE BROUGHT BY THE BOUNDARY.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
VFR OUTSIDE OF SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY. SHRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THE
MORNING VRB-SUA (VCSH INCLUDED THERE FOR NOW). LIGHT (5-10 KT) S
WINDS AFTER 14Z TURN ONSHORE BY 16-18Z AT COASTAL TERMINALS. ISO
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE, ESP. ALONG THE COAST. AS THE WEST/EAST COAST
BREEZES MOVE INLAND, ADDITIONAL SHRA/TSRA DEVELOPMENT IS FORECAST
WITH TEMPOS OVER INLAND SITES AND DAB. TSRA GUSTS 30-40 KT AND
BRIEF IFR CONDS ARE POSSIBLE. ACTIVITY WANES AFTER 00-02Z SAT.
WITH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS EARLY SAT. SIMILAR SHRA/TSRA CHANCES
EXIST BEYOND THE TAF PERIOD ON SAT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 76 92 76 / 40 30 40 10
MCO 94 77 94 76 / 40 40 60 20
MLB 90 78 90 77 / 20 10 30 0
VRB 91 77 91 77 / 30 10 30 0
LEE 93 77 94 77 / 50 30 50 20
SFB 94 76 95 77 / 40 40 50 20
ORL 93 77 93 77 / 40 40 50 20
FPR 90 77 90 76 / 30 10 30 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...TOLLEFSEN
AVIATION...SCHAPER
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