516
FXUS62 KMLB 270520
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
120 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
- SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON
AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. MAIN STORM
HAZARDS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS POSSIBLE.
- ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS FORECAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THIS WEEKEND, WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY
BRINGING INCREASING MOISTURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES INCREASE AS A RESULT MONDAY ONWARD.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
EXCEEDING 100F EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK IS FORECAST EACH DAY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US AND THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TODAY AS ANOTHER TROUGH
BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE NORTHWEST US. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE
IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING
OVER FLORIDA INTO THE GULF. LOCALLY, WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND
SOUTHERLY TODAY AS THE RIDGE AXIS IS DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA.
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND, TURNING THE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA, WITH FORECAST
PW VALUES OF 1.8-2.0" THIS AFTERNOON, WHICH WILL SUPPORT RAIN AND
STORM CHANCES ONCE AGAIN TODAY. THERE IS A LOW TO MEDIUM (20-60
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SHOWER AND STORM
COVERAGE WILL INITIATE ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH COVERAGE INCREASING INTO MID AFTERNOON AS THE SEA
BREEZE PROGRESSES INLAND, COLLIDING WITH THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, WITH MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATING THE I-4 CORRIDOR
NORTHWARD BEING THE HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH ACTIVITY
GRADUALLY PUSHING BACK TOWARDS THE EAST COAST AND OFFSHORE THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS.
SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE ENVIRONMENT,
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY (MUCAPE 1600-2500 J/KG), COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT (-7 TO -8C AT 500 MB), SUFFICIENT DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL (DCAPE 600-1000 J/KG) AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUPPORTING STORM GROWTH. MAIN STORM HAZARDS TODAY WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND
BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL PUSH OFFSHORE OR
DISSIPATE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, LEAVING MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE WATERS TONIGHT.
ANOTHER HOT AND HUMID DAY IS IN STORE OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.
MINIMAL CLOUD COVER WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH
IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH
HUMIDITY, WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-105F AND A MODERATE
HEATRISK. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SATURDAY-SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS
TO THE GULF TO FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE
TO STRETCH ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING
DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCALLY, THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND, WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ACROSS THE INTERIOR ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION. THERE IS A
MEDIUM (30-60 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS ON SATURDAY, AND A
SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE, LOW TO MEDIUM (20-50 PERCENT), ON SUNDAY AS
MODEL DISCREPANCIES CONTINUE WITH HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA ON SUNDAY. MUCH LIKE THE PREVIOUS
SHIFT, HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO NBM GUIDANCE WITH POPS FOR SUNDAY AS A
MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT THESE RAIN
CHANCES, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ( 1700-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ),
COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ( -7 TO -8C AT 500 MB), AND DECENT
DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE OF 700-1000 J/KG). THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS
WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL
HAIL, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED
FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWEST.
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND, WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO AND AREAS NORTHWARD EACH DAY.
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK
HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F EACH DAY. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, MEANING
MOST INDIVIDUALS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING HEAT-RELATED
ILLNESS IF NOT PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
MONDAY-THURSDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE LOW
DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA.
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP THIS QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST
NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD, DRIFTING
SOUTHWARD LATE INTO THE WEEK. LOCALLY, THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH FORECAST PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-2.2".
THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT GREATER RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70
PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS MOST AFTERNOONS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-
107F, WITH A A 10-25% CHANCE OF NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA IN
SOME SPOTS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THIS FOR NOW,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS ARE MET, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST EACH NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT FRI JUN 26 2026
TODAY- TUESDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY FAVORABLE
BOATING CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL ATLANTIC
WATERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEK. BROAD
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND, RESULTING IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THAT
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOONS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AS
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SEAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
GENERALLY BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FEET. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED OFFSHORE-MOVING
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING CLOUD-TO-WATER
LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS EXCEEDING 30 KNOTS, SMALL HAIL, AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAIN AND STORMS CHANCES INCREASE NEXT WEEK THANKS
TO GREATER MOISTURE BROUGHT BY A WEAK BOUNDARY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. MOST ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS EACH DAY, THOUGH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ACROSS THE GULF STREAM WILL BE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PICK UP TO 5 TO
10 KNOTS OUT OF THE SOUTH AFTER 15Z. THE ECSB WILL DEVELOP AND
PUSH INLAND, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE EASTERLY AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS AFTER 18Z. VCSH/VCTS CHANCES INCREASE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE, WITH THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS FOCUSED
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. HAVE ADDED IN
PROB30S FOR THE TIME BEING FOR VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA
BETWEEN 19-23Z AT ALL INTERIOR TERMINALS AND DAB. ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE PENINSULA WILL DIMINISH AFTER 00Z, WITH A RETURN OF LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 76 93 77 / 40 30 20 10
MCO 94 76 95 77 / 60 50 30 10
MLB 90 77 90 77 / 30 20 20 0
VRB 91 77 91 77 / 20 10 20 0
LEE 94 77 94 78 / 60 40 30 20
SFB 95 77 95 78 / 60 50 20 10
ORL 93 77 94 78 / 60 50 30 10
FPR 90 76 91 76 / 20 10 20 0
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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