462
FXUS62 KMLB 280522
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
122 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING WITH SLOW
MOVEMENT OF STORMS. A STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
- LOWER RAIN CHANCES OVERALL ON SUNDAY BEFORE MOISTURE INCREASES
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES. RAIN AND STORM
CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
100-107F EACH AFTERNOON. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS
FORECAST EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TODAY-TONIGHT... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN US
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE NORTHWESTERN US. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA FROM THE ATLANTIC, WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE REMAINING
DRAPED OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCALLY, THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS FORECAST TO
FORM EACH AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND, WITH WINDS TURNING
SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AS IT
PUSHES INLAND, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND. THERE IS A MEDIUM (30-60 PERCENT)
CHANCE OF RAIN AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE INTERIOR LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WHERE THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZE ARE FORECAST
TO COLLIDE. THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT,
WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ( 1700-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE ), COOLER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ( -7 TO -8C AT 500 MB), AND DECENT DOWNDRAFT
POTENTIAL (DCAPE OF 700-1000 J/KG). THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWEST. STORM MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC,
FOLLOWING OUTFLOW AND SEA BREEZE MOVEMENT. MAIN STORM HAZARDS FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 40-
55MPH, SMALL HAIL, AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWN POURS WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
LOCALIZED FLOODING WHERE STORMS MOVE SLOWEST. A BRIEF FUNNEL CLOUD
MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE COLLISION LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE OR
MOVE OFFSHORE BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BECOME DRY OVERNIGHT.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 102-107 DEGREES, AND SUPPORTING A
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK AREAWIDE (ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHERN
OSCEOLA/BREVARD NORTHWARD. IF YOU ARE PLANNING TO SPEND TIME
OUTDOORS, TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SHADE OR A/C AND STAY WELL-
HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED FATIGUE/ILLNESS. NEVER LEAVE PETS OR
CHILDREN IN VEHICLES UNATTENDED! WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE
INTO TONIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
SUNDAY... UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM TEXAS TO THE
GULF TO FLORIDA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE SUNDAY AS A TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN US STEADILY SHIFTS EASTWARD. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO STRETCH
ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA, WITH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINING DRAPED
ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. LOCALLY, THIS WILL PROMOTE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO PERSIST. THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE IS ONCE
AGAIN FORECAST TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSH INLAND, WITH
WINDS TURNING SOUTHEASTERLY BEHIND THE SEA BREEZE. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO FORM EACH DAY ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES INLAND, WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS THE SEA BREEZE PUSHES INLAND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
THERE IS A SLIGHTLY LOWER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION ON SUNDAY COMPARED
TO TODAY, WITH RAIN CHANCES 20-50 PERCENT, AS MODEL DISCREPANCIES
CONTINUE WITH HOW MUCH DRY AIR WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA. HAVE CONTINUED TO LEAN CLOSER TO NBM GUIDANCE WITH POPS
AS A MIDDLE GROUND AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTS CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT, WITH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY ( 1800-2500 J/KG OF MUCAPE
), AND DECENT DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL (DCAPE OF 700-1000 J/KG). HOWEVER,
TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THEY HAVE BEEN (-6 TO -
7C AT 500MB). THE MAIN STORM HAZARDS WILL BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES, WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH, AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE HEAT PERSISTS, WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THE
WARMEST AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE ORLANDO METRO
AND AREAS NORTHWARD. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY
WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F. ADDITIONALLY, WIDESPREAD
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA,
MEANING MOST INDIVIDUALS WILL BE MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO DEVELOPING HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS IF NOT PRACTICING HEAT SAFETY WARM AND MUGGY
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S.
MONDAY-FRIDAY... UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE WITH A TROUGH MOVING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SURFACE, A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL FORM OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS, WITH THE LOW
DRAGGING A WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHWARD TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH THE EXACT TIMING AND
EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE, BUT CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW FORMING OFF THE
COAST OF GEORGIA/CAROLINAS MONDAY OR TUESDAY, MEANDERING SLIGHTLY
BEFORE EVENTUALLY MOVING WESTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO KEEP
THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY JUST NORTH OF CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH
MOST OF THE PERIOD BEFORE DRIFTING SOUTHWARD LATE INTO THE WEEK.
LOCALLY, THIS WILL CAUSE MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
FORECAST PW VALUES 2+". THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT
GREATER RAIN AND STORM CHANCES AREAWIDE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THERE IS
A MEDIUM TO HIGH (40-70 PERCENT) CHANCE OF RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, MODELS DIVERGE A BIT WITH REGARD TO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE THURSDAY ONWARD, SO RAIN CHANCES MAY SETTLE
CLOSER TO NORMAL TOWARD LATE WEEK, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK,
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES
COMBINED WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-
107F, WITH WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST ACROSS
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH NEXT WEEK. WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST EACH NIGHT, WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 247 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2026
TODAY- WEDNESDAY... (MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) GENERALLY
FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL LAST THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW TURNS ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH THE
EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WINDS GENERALLY 10-12 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
2-3 FT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO WILL TRANSITION
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS THROUGH SUNDAY, THOUGH SOME
PUSHBACK OF EVENING STORMS COULD OCCUR AS WE GET INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MOISTURE INCREASES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY APPROACHES MONDAY-
WEDNESDAY, SO RAIN CHANCES INCREASE (PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
CAPE).
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 120 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST, CAUSING WINDS TO
BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 16Z AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AND
AFTER 19Z AT THE INTERIOR TERMINALS. VCTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE, WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE ANTICIPATED NEAR THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS. HAVE ADDED IN PROB30S FOR POTENTIAL VIS AND
CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH NEAR THE COAST
AFTER 22Z AND AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL RETURN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 30
MCO 95 78 96 78 / 40 20 50 30
MLB 90 78 92 78 / 20 10 40 10
VRB 91 77 93 77 / 30 10 20 10
LEE 95 79 96 79 / 40 20 40 40
SFB 95 78 97 78 / 40 10 40 30
ORL 94 79 96 79 / 40 20 40 30
FPR 91 75 93 76 / 40 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WATSON
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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