745
FXUS62 KMLB 281048
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
648 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS, AGAIN, THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
100-107F EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO
INCLUDE THE FL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TRANSITION ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ECSB
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WELL INLAND WITH LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ECSB BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY INCREASING INTO THE INTERIOR THRU LATE DAY/EVENING.
PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 35-50 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS, MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE ONE OF
THE BIGGEST STORM CONCERNS. QUICK 2-3" AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WITH A
FEW STORMS LATE TODAY AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES AS
NECESSARY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID WITH L90S ALONG THE COAST AND M90S
INLAND (POTENTIALLY ISOLD U90S). PEAK HEAT INDICES CONTINUE 102-
107F. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED. IF YOU ARE
PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SHADE
OR A/C AND STAY WELL-HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED FATIGUE/ILLNESS.
NEVER LEAVE PETS OR CHILDREN IN VEHICLES UNATTENDED! WARM & HUMID AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M-U70S.
MON-SAT...STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIA THRU
MID-WEEK, FINALLY WEAKENING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
ATLC SEABOARD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY-MID WEEK. MOISTENING
OCCURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN SURGES ACROSS
ECFL. THE DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME IS IN FULL GEAR WITH CONTINUED
WEAK/ERRATIC STORM STEERING FORECAST. AS SUCH, SCT-NMRS MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD (HIGHEST
INTERIOR). WILL MONITOR POP NUMBERS, BUT WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND ONSHORE FLOW (ALOFT) WOULD TEND TOWARD LOWER OVERALL POPS AS
THE NBM MAY BE TOO HIGH ESP MID TO LATE WEEK. PRIMARY STORM
IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
35-50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F, AND
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CONTINUING. MON WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY AND MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT NIGHT, WITH MINS IN THE L-U70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THRU THU...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE,
WINDS GENERALLY 7-12 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT WELL
OFFSHORE) THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL TRANSITION INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, THOUGH SOME PUSHBACK
OF EVENING STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STORM MOTION
REMAINS SLOW/ERRATIC. MOISTURE INCREASES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MON-WED, SO RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 645 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH 17Z, WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT AND PUSH INLAND OF THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE CAUSING
WINDS TO BECOME MORE SOUTHEASTERLY AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS. VCTS CHANCES
INCREASE NEAR THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER 17Z AND ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TERMINALS AFTER 19Z. PROB30S REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
BETWEEN 19-23Z FOR VIS AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. CONFIDENCE
IN COVERAGE HAS DECREASED SLIGHTLY, BUT OPTED TO KEEP THE PROB30S
IN FOR NOW. SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH
AFTER 22Z ALONG THE COAST AND AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, CONTINUING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 92 77 95 77 / 20 10 30 30
MCO 95 78 96 78 / 40 20 50 30
MLB 90 78 92 78 / 20 10 40 10
VRB 91 77 93 77 / 30 10 20 10
LEE 95 79 96 79 / 40 20 40 40
SFB 95 78 97 78 / 40 10 40 30
ORL 94 79 96 79 / 40 20 40 30
FPR 91 75 93 76 / 40 10 20 10
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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