840
FXUS62 KMLB 281745
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
145 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS, AGAIN, THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS WHICH MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING DUE TO
SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS. A STRONG STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.
- MOISTURE INCREASES EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES. RAIN AND STORM CHANCES INCREASE THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS PERSIST AREAWIDE WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES
100-107F EACH AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
ARE FORECAST EACH DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...MID-LEVEL RIDGING PRESENT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH TO
INCLUDE THE FL PENINSULA. AT THE SURFACE, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING
CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL FL PENINSULA. LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS WILL
TRANSITION ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE ECSB
DEVELOPS AND PUSHES WELL INLAND WITH LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ISOLD-WDLY SCT CONVECTION
MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE ECSB BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITH BOTH COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY INCREASING INTO THE INTERIOR THRU LATE DAY/EVENING.
PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS REMAIN FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS OF 35-50 MPH, AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. DUE TO THE
SLOW MOVEMENT OF CELLS, MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE ONE OF
THE BIGGEST STORM CONCERNS. QUICK 2-3" AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR WITH A
FEW STORMS LATE TODAY AND WILL BE HANDLED WITH FLOOD ADVISORIES AS
NECESSARY.
CONDITIONS CONTINUE HOT AND HUMID WITH L90S ALONG THE COAST AND M90S
INLAND (POTENTIALLY ISOLD U90S). PEAK HEAT INDICES CONTINUE 102-
107F. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXPECTED. IF YOU ARE
PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE SHADE
OR A/C AND STAY WELL-HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED FATIGUE/ILLNESS.
NEVER LEAVE PETS OR CHILDREN IN VEHICLES UNATTENDED! WARM & HUMID AT
NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE M-U70S.
MON-SAT...STRONG MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY LIFTS FROM THE
MISSISSIPPI/TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY/APPALACHIA THRU
MID-WEEK, FINALLY WEAKENING LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE
ATLC SEABOARD. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SLIDE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY-MID WEEK. MOISTENING
OCCURS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE BOUNDARY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. THE FLOW BECOMES
ONSHORE BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS DEEPER MOISTURE AGAIN SURGES ACROSS
ECFL. THE DAILY SEA BREEZE REGIME IS IN FULL GEAR WITH CONTINUED
WEAK/ERRATIC STORM STEERING FORECAST. AS SUCH, SCT-NMRS MAINLY
DIURNAL CONVECTIVE CHANCES FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD (HIGHEST
INTERIOR). WILL MONITOR POP NUMBERS, BUT WARMING IN THE MID-LEVELS
AND ONSHORE FLOW (ALOFT) WOULD TEND TOWARD LOWER OVERALL POPS AS
THE NBM MAY BE TOO HIGH ESP MID TO LATE WEEK. PRIMARY STORM
IMPACTS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHTNING STRIKES, LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
35-50 MPH, AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS POTENTIALLY LEADING TO MINOR
FLOODING CONCERNS.
HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK, WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED
WITH HIGH HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 100-107F, AND
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CONTINUING. MON WILL BE THE
HOTTEST DAY AND MAY NEED TO MONITOR FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. WARM AND
MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE AT NIGHT, WITH MINS IN THE L-U70S.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 237 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THRU THU...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO
NEXT WEEK AS LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW TURNS ONSHORE EACH AFTERNOON WITH
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE,
WINDS GENERALLY 7-12 KTS OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-3 FT (UP TO 4 FT WELL
OFFSHORE) THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK. LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL TRANSITION INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS, THOUGH SOME PUSHBACK
OF EVENING STORMS COULD OCCUR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STORM MOTION
REMAINS SLOW/ERRATIC. MOISTURE INCREASES AS A SURFACE BOUNDARY
APPROACHES MON-WED, SO RAIN CHANCES INCREASE, GENERALLY NORTH OF
THE CAPE. WINDS/SEAS LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED, AND HAS SHIFTED WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-12 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
WIDELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE SEA BREEZE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 20Z/21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VCTS INTRODUCED AFTER 19Z/20Z. TEMPOS
FOR TSRA IMPACTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT MCO/ISM (20Z-24Z) WHILE
PROB30S REMAIN AT SFB/LEE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING OR
STATIONARY STORMS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS.
INTERIOR CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 95 77 91 / 10 50 30 50
MCO 77 97 78 94 / 40 50 30 70
MLB 77 92 77 91 / 10 40 20 50
VRB 76 93 76 93 / 10 20 10 50
LEE 78 96 79 93 / 30 50 30 70
SFB 78 97 78 94 / 40 50 30 70
ORL 78 97 79 93 / 40 50 30 70
FPR 76 92 75 93 / 10 20 10 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...LAW
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