949
FXUS62 KMLB 281843
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
243 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
- SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS, MAINLY INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING, WITH A ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS
STILL POSSIBLE.
- INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
RISE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, WITH
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
- TURNING EVEN HOTTER TOMORROW, WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
AND PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES NEARING HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
(108-110 DEGREES), ESPECIALLY NEAR TO NORTH OF ORLANDO.
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-107F EACH
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST EACH
DAY.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT...EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL CONTINUE INLAND WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. GREATEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTION IS FORECAST NEAR TO
WEST OF THE ORLANDO METRO AREA LATE TODAY, WITH THE SEA BREEZE
COLLISION. 15Z CAPE SOUNDING SHOWS A LITTLE MORE DRIER AIR ALOFT
TODAY, WHICH WILL AID IN STRONG GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40-50 MPH AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING WITH ANY ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS. SMALL HAIL MAY
ALSO BE POSSIBLE, EVEN WITH TEMPS AT 500MB A TAD WARMER TODAY
(AROUND -6C). WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SLOW AND
VARIABLE STORM MOTION, MOSTLY PROPAGATING ALONG SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. THIS SHOULD ALLOW ANY PERSISTENT STORMS
TO PRODUCE QUICK LOCALIZED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2-3", LEADING TO
MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH INTO LATE EVENING, WITH DRY
CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS FORECAST
WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MANY LOCATIONS.
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK, AS A WEAK FRONT SHIFTS SOUTH TOWARD FLORIDA MONDAY
AND STALLS NEAR TO NORTH OF THE AREA INTO TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THIS FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE NORTH CAROLINA AND LINGER OFF
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK. STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. ON MONDAY WILL EXTEND INTO FLORIDA, WITH
EVEN HOTTER CONDITIONS INTO TOMORROW. MAX TEMPS CLIMB TO THE MID TO
UPPER 90S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, EXCEPT LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST,
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. A HEAT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY AFTERNOON, INCLUDING FROM
THE ORLANDO METRO AREA NORTHWARD. IT IS ACROSS THIS REGION THAT
HOTTEST TEMPS AND GREATEST POTENTIAL (50-80% CHANCE) FOR HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEARING 108-110 WILL EXIST. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
AGAIN FORM WITH THE INLAND MOVING EAST COAST SEA BREEZE AND ANY
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OVER THE INTERIOR, WITH POPS RANGING FROM 30-50
PERCENT FOR MUCH OF THE REGION, EXCEPT 20% (OR LESS) ALONG THE
TREASURE COAST. A FEW STRONGER STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE,
WITH SIMILAR HAZARDS OF STRONG WIND GUSTS, FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SMALL
HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT AND INCREASING MOISTURE LEADING TO HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH MIDWEEK (RAIN CHANCES UP TO
50-70%) WILL THEN DROP MAX TEMPS BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 90S ON
TUESDAY AND LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, THE ADDED HUMIDITY WILL
STILL PRODUCE PEAK HEAT INDEX VALUES AS HIGH AS 102-107 DEGREES.
WEAK STEERING WINDS AND DEEP MOISTURE (PW VALUES OF 2-2.2") WILL
CONTINUE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL AROUND 2-4" EACH
DAY, LEADING TO MOSTLY MINOR FLOODING ISSUES, ESPECIALLY INLAND.
STRONG WIND GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO ACCOMPANY
ANY STRONGER STORMS.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST
IS FORECAST TO MAKE A SLOW JOG BACK TOWARD THE WEST AS STRONG MID-
LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. NHC
MAINTAINS ONLY A LOW (20%) CHANCE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM, AND CONDITIONS ONLY BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT INTO LATE WEEK. CURRENTLY, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE THIS LOW PRESSURE AS IT NEARS THE COAST. PW
VALUES AROUND 2 INCHES PERSIST, WHICH WILL CONTINUE HIGHER
COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS EACH DAY (POPS AS
HIGH AS 50-80%) THROUGH LATE WEEK AND INTO THE 4TH OF JULY
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. MAX TEMPS WILL ALSO REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 90S, WITH PEAK AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX
VALUES STILL REACHING UP TO 102-107.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 243 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
BOATING CONDITIONS REMAIN GENERALLY FAVORABLE THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEK AS WIND SPEEDS STAY BELOW 15 KNOTS AND SEAS LARGELY REMAIN
AROUND 1-3 FEET (UP TO 4 FEET WELL OFFSHORE MID TO LATE WEEK). WINDS
OVERNIGHT AND INTO THE MORNING HOURS BECOME S/SW EARLY THIS WEEK,
BUT STILL TURN ONSHORE WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MORE PREDOMINANT ONSHORE FLOW THEN DEVELOPS
THROUGH WED-FRI.
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE WATERS IN THE
MORNING. MOISTURE INCREASES LEADING TO SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND STORMS EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING, BUT WEAK STEERING WINDS WILL KEEP
MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY OVER LAND. HOWEVER, CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW
OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS, ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2026
THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE HAS DEVELOPED, AND HAS SHIFTED WINDS
EAST-SOUTHEAST 8-12 KTS AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS. WINDS REMAIN
WIDELY LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, BUT SHOULD BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AS
THE SEA BREEZE GRADUALLY PROGRESSES INLAND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
STORMS IN VICINITY OF THE TREASURE COAST TERMINALS SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY PUSH NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 20Z/21Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH VCTS INTRODUCED AFTER 19Z/20Z. TEMPOS
FOR TSRA IMPACTS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED AT MCO/ISM (20Z-24Z) WHILE
PROB30S REMAIN AT SFB/LEE, AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM SLOW MOVING OR
STATIONARY STORMS COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF VIS/CIG REDUCTIONS.
INTERIOR CONVECTION GRADUALLY DIMINISHES AFTER SUNSET WITH MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 95 77 91 / 10 50 30 50
MCO 77 97 78 94 / 40 50 30 70
MLB 77 92 77 91 / 10 40 20 50
VRB 76 93 76 93 / 10 20 10 50
LEE 78 96 79 93 / 30 50 30 70
SFB 78 97 78 94 / 40 50 30 70
ORL 78 97 79 93 / 40 50 30 70
FPR 76 92 75 93 / 10 20 10 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...WEITLICH
AVIATION...LAW
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