703
FXUS62 KMLB 292339
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
739 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-107F EACH
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST EACH
DAY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
RISE IN RAIN AND STORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-WEEK, WITH
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS LIGHT TO
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS FROM BREVARD AND ORANGE
COUNTIES NORTHWARD. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. ANALYSIS
CHARTS SHOW HIGH PRESSURE (~1021MB OVER THE GULF OF AMERICA AND A
MAJOR SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS MORNING'S 15Z
XMR SOUNDING INDICATES MLCAPE AT 2,305 J/KG, DCAPE AT 1,218 J/KG,
AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 5KTS COUPLED WITH 500MB TEMPERATURES AT -6.6C.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES UP TO 105-112F. DEW POINTS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S TO
AROUND 80 DEGREES.
ISOLATED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS (20-70%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR
BETWEEN SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS STORMS. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS (50-70%) ARE FROM THE ORLANDO METRO
WESTWARD. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA NORTH AND WEST OF ST. LUCIE COUNTY WITH THE GREATEST RISK,
MAINLY BETWEEN 3PM-9PM. THIS MORNING'S 15Z XMR SOUNDING IS NOT
OVERALL THAT SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH RELATIVELY WARM 500MB
TEMPERATURES, VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW, AND VERY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR.
HOWEVER, WITH A SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER IN THE MID LEVELS AND MODERATE
TO HIGH DCAPE, A STORM WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN HAZARDS ARE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS UP TO 60MPH
(5-14%), FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (1-3" IN 60-90
MINUTES WITH A 1-10 CHANCE OF RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3" UP TO
4"). RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH INTO THE LATE EVENING
HOURS BY AROUND 9-10PM. ABOVE NORMAL TO RECORD LOWS IN THE MID 70S
TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE FORECAST OVERNIGHT.
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY... BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA BEFORE TRACKING SOUTH
OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE GULF OF AMERICA AND THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WELL TO THE
EAST FLORIDA WILL RESULT IN ANOTHER DAY WITH A WEAK WEST AND EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE AND SUPPORTS LOWER POPS ALONG THE COAST (30-50%)
WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS (50-70%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS
OVER THE INTERIOR. SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS OCCUR BETWEEN SEA BREEZES AND OUTFLOW FROM PREVIOUS
SHOWERS/STORMS. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS TO 40-50MPH WITH MODERATE TO HIGH MLCAPE,
VERY WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR, AND PWAT VALUES BETWEEN 1.9-2.3". DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE NORTH (30- 50%) ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTH ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST(30-80%). A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXISTS EACH DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW 70S TO UPPER
70S. A MAJOR HEATRISK CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING
AND HYDRATION. REMEMBER TO TAKE EXTRA PRECAUTIONS IF SPENDING
EXTENDED PERIODS OF TIME OUTSIDE, SHIFT OUTDOOR WORK AWAY FROM
10AM-4PM, WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT CLOTHING, DRINK PLENTY OF WATER, AND
TAKE BREAKS FROM THE HEAT IN AIR CONDITIONING.
THURSDAY-SUNDAY... GUIDANCE SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE
GULF OF AMERICA WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE (UP TO 594DM AT
500MB) BUILDING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS LATE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. GENERALLY, DAILY SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS (50-80%) SEA
BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST LATE WEEK
AND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. HIGH MLCAPE, WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR,
AND SUFFICIENT PWATS WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE TO
A FEW STRONG STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A MODERATE TO
MAJOR HEATRISK IS FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S
ON THURSDAY GRADUALLY WARMING, MAINLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR INTO
THE WEEKEND. ABOVE AVERAGE TO NEAR RECORD LOWS IN THE LOW TO UPPER
70S ARE FORECAST.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
CURRENTLY-TUESDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS WELL
AS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING (A COUPLE OF WHICH WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS). SOUTHEAST WINDS AT
5-10KTS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT BEFORE VEERING
NORTHEAST INTO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT 6-12KTS. SEAS OF
1-2FT WITH UP TO 3 FT OVER THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY
OFFSHORE (20-60NM) WATERS AS WELL AS THE NEARSHORE VOLUSIA WATERS
ON TUESDAY.
WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE MID TO LATE WEEK. WINDS WILL TURN ONSHORE MID-LATE WEEK
AT 6-14KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST EACH DAY. SEAS BUILD TO
3-4FT WITH UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING INTO
THURSDAY.
AVIATION
(00Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 739 PM EDT MON JUN 29 2026
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE INTERIOR ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
THROUGH AROUND 01Z. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY DRY TONIGHT. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT BECOME ESTABLISHED OUT OF
THE NORTHEAST INTO LATE TUESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK FRONT SINKS
SOUTHWARD. MODELS HINT AT AN EARLIER SEA BREEZE MOVING ACROSS THE
INTERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON, AND VCTS IS INTRODUCED AT 17Z FOR
INLAND TERMINALS. VCSH INCLUDED FROM MLB NORTHWARD AROUND 15Z/16Z
WITH VCTS MENTIONED ALONG THE TREASURE COAST STARTING AROUND
16Z/17Z. OCCASIONAL GUSTS 18-20 KTS ARE FORECAST ALONG THE COAST
FROM MLB NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 91 77 89 / 20 50 30 30
MCO 77 93 76 91 / 30 70 20 50
MLB 77 91 78 88 / 20 40 30 30
VRB 76 92 77 90 / 10 30 30 40
LEE 79 93 77 92 / 30 70 30 30
SFB 78 93 76 92 / 30 60 30 40
ORL 78 92 77 91 / 30 70 20 40
FPR 75 92 76 89 / 10 30 30 50
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...LAW
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