571
FXUS62 KMLB 301057
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
657 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW AVIATION
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-107F EACH
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST EACH
DAY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
RISE IN RAIN AND LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST MID-
WEEK, WITH SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE REMAINING NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CURRENT-TONIGHT...A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLIDES SOUTHWARD TOWARD
CENTRAL FL TODAY WITH ONSHORE FLOW INITIATING ACROSS COASTAL VOLUSIA
THIS MORNING, THEN SPREADING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. FAIRLY DEEP MOISTURE, COUPLED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING, BOUNDARY COLLISIONS AND SOME MID-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PROMOTE ISOLD-SCT (20-40%) SHOWER/STORM CHANCES CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND SCT-NMRS (40-70%) CONVECTION INTO THE INTERIOR DURING
THE DAY. ACTION MAY GET STARTED EARLY (MORNING) UP NORTH SPREADING
SOUTHWARD (AND INLAND) INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY INCREASE. A FEW STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH PRIMARY STORM IMPACTS FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES, GUSTY WINDS
35-50 MPH LOCALLY, SMALL HAIL AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. QUICK
2-3" RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL OCCUR WITH SOME STORMS, ESPECIALLY
INLAND, WITH MINOR/NUISANCE FLOODING POSSIBLE - LIKELY HANDLED BY
FLOOD ADVISORIES AS NECESSARY. STORM MOTION REMAINS LIGHT AND OUT
OF THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST THRU THE DAY. CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH
INTO MID EVENING, WITH SKIES THINNING OVERNIGHT.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK CONTINUES WITH MAX TEMPS NEAR
90F TO L90S (FEW M90S WITHIN REACH); A BIT LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
DAY WITH MORE CLOUD-COVER AND POTENTIAL EARLIER CONVECTIVE
INITIATION FOR SOME AS ONSHORE WINDS SWEEP INLAND. PEAK HEAT
INDICES MAY STILL REACH 100-107F FOR MANY ACROSS ECFL. IF YOU ARE
PLANNING TO SPEND TIME OUTDOORS, TAKE PLENTY OF BREAKS IN THE
SHADE OR A/C AND STAY WELL-HYDRATED TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED
FATIGUE/ILLNESS. NEVER LEAVE PETS OR CHILDREN IN VEHICLES
UNATTENDED! WARM & HUMID AT NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE L-U70S
AREAWIDE.
WED-THU...ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. WARMING
ALOFT WITH FAIRLY STOUT MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
NORTH, THOUGH A DEGREE OF "TROUGHINESS" WILL TRY TO UNDERCUT THE
EXPANSIVE HIGH WHICH WILL OCCASIONALLY AID IN CONVECTION ACROSS
THE AREA. STILL MOIST WITH PWATS 1.75-2.25" (HIGHEST SOUTH) DURING
THIS TIME. A DIFFUSE SEA BREEZE WILL BE PRESENT EACH DAY PUSHING
WELL INLAND. RATHER DEEP ONSHORE FLOW OVERALL WITH STEERING FLOW
REMAINING LIGHT BUT TOWARD THE WEST. HIGHEST POPS SHOULD CONTINUE
INLAND & SOUTH; 30-60% ON WED & 40-70% FOR THU. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A KEY CONCERN THRU MID-WEEK. TYPICAL WARM &
HUMID SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITH HIGHS IN THE U80S TO
L90S, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 97-104F FOR MOST. CONDITIONS AT NIGHT
CONSISTENT - WARM & MUGGY.
FRI-MON...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING RETURNS TO THE CENTRAL FL
PENINSULA INTO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID-LEVEL HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTH GRADUALLY WEAKENS ACROSS THE MID ATLC COAST
AND ADJACENT WESTERN ATLC. A LIGHT SOUTHERLY SURFACE WIND COMPONENT
FOR MUCH OF THIS PERIOD AND WITH A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE
WILL SEE DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND PUSH INLAND. FAIRLY MOIST
CONDITIONS FRI/SAT AND PERHAPS SOME DRIER AIR MIGRATING INTO THE
AREA SUN/MON. MODELS CONTINUE TO SETTLE ON SCT TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS
DIURNAL CONVECTION EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE L-M90S
WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES PICKING BACK UP TO 100-107F ALMOST EACH
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF SEA BREEZES AND PRECIP. LOWS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN
THE 70S WITH CONDITIONS HUMID.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
THROUGH SAT...GENERALLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS A
WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS
LATER TODAY AS LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TRANSITION ONSHORE ALONG THE
VOLUSIA COAST THIS MORNING WITH THIS TREND CONTINUING SOUTHWARD THRU
THE DAY. THE ONSHORE COMPONENT CONTINUES INTO WED NIGHT, THEN
BECOMES MORE S/SE ON THU INTO THE WEEKEND. WINDS SPEEDS STILL 7-13
KTS OR LESS THRU THE PERIOD. SEAS 2-4 FT (UP TO 5 FT OFFSHORE WED-
WED NIGHT) BECOMING AOB 3 FT FRI-SAT AREAWIDE. ISOLD-SCT SHOWER AND
LIGHTNING STORM CHANCES AND GENERALLY "NO" OFFSHORE-MOVING THREAT
THRU LATE WEEK. WINDS/SEAS REMAIN LOCALLY HIGHER INVOF STORMS.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NE
AFTER 16Z AREAWIDE. VCSH/VCTS CHANCES NEAR THE TERMINALS INCREASE
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, WITH
GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MAINTAIN PROB30S AT ALL INTERIOR TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-22Z FOR VIS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. ACTIVITY CLEARS AFTER 21Z ALONG
THE COAST AND AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH LIGHT NE WINDS
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 90 77 89 77 / 30 20 30 10
MCO 93 76 91 75 / 70 10 50 0
MLB 90 78 88 78 / 30 20 30 10
VRB 92 77 89 77 / 30 30 40 20
LEE 93 77 91 76 / 70 10 50 0
SFB 93 77 92 76 / 70 10 30 0
ORL 92 77 91 76 / 70 10 50 0
FPR 92 76 89 76 / 30 30 40 20
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...SEDLOCK
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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