185
FXUS62 KMLB 301859
AFDMLB
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
..NEW KEY MESSAGES, DISCUSSION, MARINE
KEY MESSAGES
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
- MARGINAL RISK (LOW CHANCE) FOR ONE OR TWO STRONG TO MARGINALLY
SEVERE STORMS FOR THE INTERIOR OF ECFL THROUGH 8PM THIS EVENING
- HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND, WITH PEAK HEAT INDICES 100-107F EACH
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK FORECAST EACH
DAY.
- INCREASING MOISTURE WITH AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES FRIDAY AND INTO THE
FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND
DISCUSSION
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CURRENTLY-TONIGHT... KMLB RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
LIGHTNING STORMS WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE FROM OSCEOLA COUNTY
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. GOES-16 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND LOCAL
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA. TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY BETWEEN 100-107F DEGREES. DEW
POINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S TO AROUND 80 DEGREES WITH EAST-NORTHEAST
WINDS AT 6-12MPH. ANALYSIS CHARTS SHOW A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH
EXTENDS FROM LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE FLORIDA COAST
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS (20-60%) AND LIGHTNING
STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING
AROUND 8PM.
A MARGINAL RISK (5-14%) FOR SEVERE STORMS EXISTS FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. HOWEVER, THIS MORNING'S XMR
SOUNDING INDICATES RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH 500MB
TEMPERATURES AT -6.2C, IN ADDITION TO WEAK MLCAPE AT 976 J/KG,
MODERATE DCAPE AT 863 J/KG, AND 0-6KM SHEAR AT 4KTS WHICH
SUGGESTS THAT THE POTENTIAL FOR A SEVERE STORM IS LOW. ALTHOUGH,
WITH MODERATE DCAPE AND DRY AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, A STORM
OR TWO WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS TO 40-60MPH (5-14% UP TO 60MPH)
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, AS WELL AS FREQUENT LIGHTNING, AND HEAVY
RAINFALL (1-3" IN 60 MINUTES WITH A 1-10 CHANCE OF RAINFALL
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3" UP TO 4"). RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH BY AROUND 8PM. ABOVE NORMAL TO RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES
(~2-4F+ DEGREES) IN THE LOW 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES ARE FORECAST.
WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY... THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO SAG SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
(30-60%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
ONSHORE ALONG THE COAST INTO THE MORNING HOURS (ESPECIALLY OVER
VOLUSIA COUNTY) WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING ACROSS THE WESTERN
INTERIOR OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
EASTERLY FLOW ON THURSDAY WILL RESULT IN SEA BREEZE, AS WELL AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS ACROSS WESTERN FLORIDA AND PRIMARILY
TO THE WEST OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
(30-70%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS THURSDAY WITH THE LOW COVERAGE ALONG
THE COAST AND HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. GUIDANCE INDICATES MODERATE MLCAPE, VERY
WEAK 0-6KM SHEAR, AND PWATS BETWEEN 1.4"-2.3" WHICH IS SUFFICIENT
FOR A COUPLE TO A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF FREQUENT LIGHTNING,
WIND GUSTS UP TO 40- 50MPH, AND HEAVY RAINFALL (1-2" WITH A LESS
THAN 5% CHANCE IN EXCESS OF 2" UP TO 3-4"). NEAR NORMAL AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ARE FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 70S TO
NEAR 80 DEGREES. A MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK EXISTS EACH DAY. A
MAJOR HEATRISK CAN AFFECT ANYONE WITHOUT ADEQUATE COOLING AND
HYDRATION.
FRIDAY-MONDAY... HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF
AMERICA AS WELL AS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
500MB HEIGHTS REACHING UP TO 594-597DM OVER THE EASTERN US. THE
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OVER
THE SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY
SEA BREEZE DRIVEN SHOWERS (50-90%) AND LIGHTNING STORMS WITH
INCREASED RAIN CHANCES LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE
DECREASING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. NEAR NORMAL HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST WITH ABOVE NORMAL TO NEAR RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES. THERE IS A 30-80% CHANCE OF A MAJOR HEATRISK,
WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ALONG AND NORTH OF I-4.
MARINE
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
CURRENTLY-WEDNESDAY... MOSTLY FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST WITH LOW PRESSURE AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
GENERALLY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS. NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
AT 6-14KTS ARE EXPECTED. SEAS TO 1-3FT ARE EXPECTED WITH UP TO 4FT
OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST TO BUILD TO 5FT OVER THE
OFFSHORE (20-60NM) BREVARD AND VOLUSIA COUNTY WATERS.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY... FAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SAGS SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ATLANTIC WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN EASTERLY
AT 6-12KTS BEHIND A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THURSDAY AND SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
GENERALLY ONSHORE MOVING SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
FORECAST EACH DAY. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A STRONG STORM OR TWO
CAPABLE OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 34KTS. SEAS TO 3-4FT ARE
FORECAST TO DIMINISH INTO FRIDAY AT 1-3FT.
AVIATION
(12Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE JUN 30 2026
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS PICK UP TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE NE
AFTER 16Z AREAWIDE. VCSH/VCTS CHANCES NEAR THE TERMINALS INCREASE
AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND MOVES INLAND, WITH
GREATEST SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FORECAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
MAINTAIN PROB30S AT ALL INTERIOR TERMINALS BETWEEN 18-22Z FOR VIS
AND CIG REDUCTIONS DUE TO TSRA. ACTIVITY CLEARS AFTER 21Z ALONG
THE COAST AND AFTER 00Z ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH LIGHT NE WINDS
PREVAILING OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
DAB 77 89 77 90 / 30 40 20 30
MCO 76 91 76 93 / 20 50 10 60
MLB 78 88 78 90 / 20 30 20 40
VRB 77 90 77 90 / 30 30 20 50
LEE 77 91 76 93 / 20 50 10 50
SFB 76 91 76 93 / 20 40 10 50
ORL 77 90 76 92 / 20 40 10 60
FPR 76 89 76 90 / 30 30 20 60
MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
DISCUSSION...FEHLING
AVIATION...TOLLEFSEN
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